Cracking FanDuel: Week 20

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests.

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Link to Week 20 Value Chart

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

  • Everything is sorted by position
  • I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
  • The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 20 Price
  • The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
  • H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
  • ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
  • In the 2017 Cracking FanDuel book, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
  • I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position. Players in blue represent potential boosts due to others scratching.

General Thoughts

Situations that stand out to me this week.

    • In the playoffs with limited players going, how you construct your lineup is nearly as important as the players you choose. I nearly always will build my playoff cash lineups with a strong running back core while being much more thrifty at the wide receiver position. You want running backs that are favored to win at home. Your darts at wide receiver should be on teams that likely are playing from behind and need to throw to catch up.

    • On such a limited slate where everyone is rostering the same stars, I suggest a conservative bankroll strategy for this week. I will be playing about 10-15% of my normal volume.

  • Both games are expected to be shootouts, but will they be? - Kansas City has been vulnerable to the running game all season. Can the Patriots slow the "fast tempo" Chiefs down by playing ball control with their three backs? They attempted to execute this type of style when they met in week 6 and had great first-half success. The Chiefs emerged after halftime and looked as if they figured out a way to exploit the Patriots through the air and the game ended in a 40-43 shootout. With the game film of what worked in week 6, I think the Patriots will TRY and control the pace, but the Chiefs should be able to respond in kind. I expect a lot of scoring.

  • Rams at Saints rematch - In week 9, these teams combined for 80 points in New Orleans and I see nothing that convinces me that a similar high-scoring affair is not in play. People may argue that Goff has been horrible on the road this season (just 10 TDs vs 9 interceptions in 8 games), but Jared had his A game working when these teams met in week 9. He finished with 391 yards and 3 touchdowns.

  • NE/KC cold weather- Lots of chatter has surfaced about the frigid conditions expected at Arrowhead stadium for the NE/KC game. I think these temperature concerns are overblown as the field itself is heated and the benches will have heaters as well. Cold itself is rarely an issue unless heavy snow or rain is also happening.
  • TE Ben Watson, NO is a scratch - This is noteworthy because Ben Watson had his best game of the season against the Rams in week 9 catching 3 passes for 62 yards and a score. TE Josh Hill ($4,600) should see an increase in snaps in the rematch and could represent massive value should he find the endzone.

  • RB Damien Williams ($7,200) is still under-priced for his role on the Chiefs. FanDuel upped his price to $7,200, but this is still a good $1,000+ what Kareem Hunt would be priced at. Williams exploded against a stingy Colts defense last week. He should have a much easier time this week against the Patriots.

Cash+ Stacks I am targeting

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash+ KC Stack (Projected Points = 124.6)

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Cash+ LAR Stack (Projected Points = 124.2)

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