Cracking FanDuel: Week 17

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests.

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Link to Week 17 Value Chart

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

  • Everything is sorted by position
  • I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
  • The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 17 Price
  • The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
  • H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
  • ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
  • In the 2017 Cracking FanDuel book, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
  • I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position. Players in blue represent potential boosts due to others scratching.

General Thoughts

Situations that stand out to me this week.

    • Offensive scoring has been up all season-long and week 16 has fifteen teams expected to score 23+ points on the 30-team main slate. Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Listed by descending expected team points:

      • Kansas City Chiefs (vs OAK) - 33.25 points
      • New England Patriots (vs NYJ) - 30.00 points
      • Pittsburgh Steelers (vs CIN) - 30.00 points
      • Los Angeles Rams (vs SF) - 29.25 points
      • Atlanta Falcons (at TB) - 26.75 points
      • Green Bay Packers (vs DET) - 26.25 points
      • Seattle Seahawks (vs ARI) - 26.00 points
      • New Orleans Saints (vs CAR) - 24.75 points
      • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs ATL) - 24.75 points
      • Philadelphia Eagles (at WAS) - 24.25 points
      • Los Angeles Chargers (at DEN) - 24.00 points
      • New York Giants (vs DAL) - 23.25 points
      • Houston Texans (vs JAC) - 23.25 points
      • Minnesota Vikings (vs CHI) - 23.00 points
      • Baltimore Ravens (vs CLE) - 23.00 points

Want to see the rest?


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