Cracking FanDuel: Week 12 - Footballguys

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests.

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Link to Week 12 Value Chart

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

  • Everything is sorted by position
  • I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
  • The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 11 Price
  • The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
  • H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
  • ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
  • In the 2017 Cracking FanDuel book, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
  • I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position.

General Thoughts

Situations that stand out to me this week.

  • Offensive scoring has been up all season-long and week twelve has half of the teams expected to score 24+ points on the 20-team main slate. Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Listed by descending expected team points:

    • Indianapolis Colts (vs MIA) - 29.25 points
    • New England Patriots (at NYJ) - 28.75 points
    • Los Angeles Chargers (vs ARI) - 28.50 points
    • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs SF) - 28.50 points
    • Baltimore Ravens (vs OAK) - 26.50 points
    • Philadelphia Eagles (vs NYG) - 260 points
    • San Francisco 49ers (at TB) - 25.50 points
    • Carolina Panthers (vs SEA) - 25.00 points
    • Pittsburgh Steelers (at DEN) - 24.75 points
    • Cincinnati Bengals (vs CLE) - 24.50 points

  • Melvin Gordon III will likely be limited or scratch - The Chargers play in the late game and you are likely going to have incomplete information in the morning when you need to lock in lineups. But despite this, I am all-in on RB Austin Ekeler ($5,400) this week. He will be in 100% of my FanDuel lineups even if I hear Gordon will be active. Ekeler is the primary beneficiary should Melvin Gordon III scratch (or play limited snaps). Vegas has the Chargers as a 13 point favorite at home so if the team is even questioning playing Gordon (because his hamstring kept tightening up in practice), one has to think they side with caution and rest him for this easy matchup so they have him in a tough matchup next week in Pittsburgh.

  • Cameron Brate $4,400 looks like a free square - With the injury to O.J. Howard, Cameron Brate should see a massive target increase going forward. At just $4,400 he has no downside and plenty of upside in a San Francisco / Tampa Bay game that could be the high-scoring game on this slate.

  • The Eagles literally have no cornerbacks to play - The injuries continue to mount for the Eagles who will be missing their top five cornerbacks on Sunday. Odell Beckham Jr Jr. is the obvious play, but Saquon Barkley, Sterling Shepard, and Evan Engram could all be in for huge afternoons. It was 4 years ago that Odell had that amazing one-handed catch in the endzone. Could history be repeating?

  • The Bengals have no defense - Since Week 8, the Bengals are giving up 26.0 FP/game to quarterbacks (2nd worst), 33.3 FP/game to running backs (worst), and 34.6 FP/game to wide receivers (7th worst). In a week with a lot of salary relief, RB Nick Chubb ($7,500), QB Baker Mayfield ($7,500), and WR Jarvis Landry ($6,100) all are floating below the radar but could be instrumental in winning your GPPs.

Cash+ Stacks I am targeting (listed highest to lowest cost)

Players for GPP differentiation

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash+ TB Stack (Projected Points = 140.2)

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Cash+ SF SUPERStack (Projected Points = 138.1)

Sample Roster 3 ($60K) - Cash+ CAR Superstack (Projected Points = 137.1)

Sample Roster 4 ($60K) - Cash+ TB Stack / Cheap RBs (Projected Points = 138.6)