Cracking FanDuel: Week 11 - Footballguys

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests.

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Link to Week 11 Value Chart

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

  • Everything is sorted by position
  • I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
  • The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 11 Price
  • The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
  • H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
  • ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
  • In the 2017 Cracking FanDuel book, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
  • I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position.

General Thoughts

Situations that stand out to me this week.

  • Offensive scoring has been up all season-long and week eleven has ten teams that are expected to score 24+ points on the 20-team main slate. Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Listed by descending expected team points:

    • New Orleans Saints (vs PHI) - 31.75 points
    • New York Giants (vs TB) - 27.50 points
    • Carolina Panthers (at DET) - 27.00 points
    • Atlanta Falcons (vs DAL) - 26.25 points
    • Los Angeles Chargers (vs DEN) - 26.25 points
    • Pittsburgh Steelers (at JAC) - 26.00 points
    • Indianapolis Colts (vs TEN) - 26.00 points
    • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at NYG) - 25.00 points
    • Tennessee Titans (at IND) - 24.50 points
    • Philadelphia Eagles (at NO) - 24.25 points

  • The Bengals defense is a mess - Since Week 8, The Bengals are giving up 30.7 fantasy points to QBs and 37.0 fantasy points to running backs. These statistics are both the worst in the league since week 8. The Ravens are expected to start rookie Lamar Jackson while also involving Robert Griffin III for some snaps. Las Vegas has this as a low-scoring game, but it's possible Baltimore smashes this defense like every other team has been doing. WR John Brown ($5,400), RB Alex Collins ($6,000), and QB Lamar Jackson ($7,000) are all players I will have some shares of this week.

  • Oakland is getting smashed by running backs - Since week 8, the Raiders have yielded 197 combined yards per game to running backs. David Johnson is next up and has the skillset to beat this unit both as a runner and a pass catcher. Add in the fact that the Raiders are extremely thin on offense this week and one can envision a scenario where the Cardinals go into run out the clock mode from the 2nd quarter on.

  • RB Ezekiel Elliott vs the Falcons - From week 8 on, the Falcons are yielding 179 combined yards and 2 touchdowns a game to running backs. This is a get-well spot for Ezekiel Elliott despite the Falcons favored at home.

  • WR Kenny Golladay ($6,400) - WR Marvin Jones Jr is hurt which leaves the Lions little else outside of Gollaway at wide receiver this week. The Panthers have yielded 198 yards and 2 touchdowns a game to wide receivers over the last two games setting up a good situation for the guy who should see the ball forced his direction all game.

Cash+ Stacks I am targeting (listed highest to lowest cost)

Players for GPP differentiation

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash (Projected Points = 139.7)

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Cash+ CAR Stack (Projected Points = 139.1)

Sample Roster 3 ($60K) - Cash+ IND/TEN Shootout (Projected Points = 136.3)