Cracking FanDuel: Week 8 - Footballguys

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests.

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Link to Week 8 Value Chart

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

  • Everything is sorted by position
  • I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
  • The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 8 Price
  • The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
  • H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
  • ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
  • In the 2017 Cracking FanDuel book, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
  • I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position.

General Thoughts

Situations that stand out to me this week.

  • Offensive scoring has been up all season-long and week eight has nine teams that are expected to score 24+ points on the 20-team main slate. Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Listed by descending expected team points:

    • Los Angeles Rams - 33.00 points (vs GB)
    • Kansas City Chiefs - 31.50 points (vs DEN)
    • Cincinnati Bengals - 29.00 points (vs TB)
    • Pittsburgh Steelers - 28.50 points (vs CLE)
    • Indianapolis Colts - 26.75 points (at OAK)
    • Chicago Bears - 26.00 points (vs NYJ)
    • Detroit Lions - 26.00 points (vs SEA)
    • Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 25.50 points (at CIN)
    • Green Bay Packers - 24.00 points (at LAR)

  • Cheap WR1 options this week- The following players are likely to be their team's WR1 this week:

    All of these options will return 3X+ value if they score a touchdown. I will have shares of all of these guys in my builds as it allows me to pay up at running back and quarterback (my preferred cash game strategy on FanDuel).

  • Fade RB Todd Gurley ($11,000) - The price is too high right now. He will be a popular choice and he could even return value at this lofty price, but your teams will have considerably more upside fading him. He would have to score 33 fantasy points to reach 3X value (a feat I will gladly bet against).

  • RB James Conner, PIT ($8,000) will be in 100% of my cash rosters - He gets another week to be the every-down back for the Steelers. Over the last two games, the Browns have given up 28.2 FanDuel fantasy points to running backs. With Conner getting nearly all the touches and the Steelers as 8.5 point favorites at home, it would likely take an injury for Conner to not reach value this week. His value is the primary reason I think it's easy to fade Gurley at his elevated price.

  • Play RB David Johnson, ARI ($7,300) - A new play-caller surely has to do better than just trying to run David Johnson between the tackles. The Cardinals draw the 49ers who are yielding 28.0 fantasy points to running backs over their last 4 weeks. This is a get-right spot for the talented but misused to date David Johnson.

  • Wide Receivers have torched the Jets for 41.9 fantasy points per game over the last 4 weeks - Watch the news for WR Allen Robinson. If he scratches, play WR Taylor Gabriel ($5,500) as he will get the projection bump needed to slot him as a cheap option in all formats.

Cash+ Stacks I am targeting (listed highest to lowest cost)

players for GPP differentiation

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash (Projected Points = 137.6

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Cash+ Monster stacks (Projected Points = 136.1