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Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
Looking to dominate your office pool this season? Fifteen Footballguys.com staff members are here to help you out. Each week they will pick the winners of every NFL game, and rank their selections based on how confident they are that the team will win. The most-confident pick gets 16 points, and the least-confident gets just 1. We'll even total up everyone's picks so you can get an overall consensus on who our staff think will be the most likely winners. Each week we'll announce the weekly winners, and track the overall record for the entire season. A couple of things to note before we get to the picks:
- Picks for this pool are straight up (no point spread considered).
- Picks are due on Wednesday nights, and will not reflect any late-breaking news. If your league allows for last minute changes, please make adjustments to your office pool accordingly.
- Our staffers also play in weekly picks Against The Spread, and Survivor Style 'Pick one Winner each week' formats as well. Check out the other weekly articles for more help with those type of games.
RESULTS FROM LAST WEEK
Timing is everything. Dave Larkin notched his third weekly victory last week, narrowly edging Andy Hicks with a tiebreaker score of 42 vs. the 41 total points on the Monday Night game. Larkin and Hicks both missed only four games and tied Jeff Pasquino (Week 12) for the highest weekly totals of the season. Way to finish strong guys!
Road Team
|
WAS
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
NYG
|
ATL
|
BUF
|
HOU
|
GB
|
CIN
|
TB
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
KC
|
DEN
|
|
|
Home Team
|
TEN
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
CAR
|
NE
|
PHI
|
NYJ
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
DET
|
SF
|
ARI
|
NO
|
SEA
|
OAK
|
|
|
Staffer
|
The Picks
|
MNF
|
LW
|
|||||||||||||||
Larkin
|
TEN
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ATL
|
NE
|
PHI
|
GB
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
NO
|
KC
|
DEN
|
42
|
114
|
|
12
|
10
|
9
|
14
|
6
|
16
|
7
|
5
|
8
|
11
|
4
|
3
|
15
|
13
|
2
|
1
|
|
|
Hicks
|
TEN
|
BAL
|
MIA
|
IND
|
CAR
|
NE
|
PHI
|
NYJ
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
NO
|
SEA
|
DEN
|
35
|
114
|
|
16
|
1
|
2
|
10
|
3
|
9
|
8
|
4
|
12
|
15
|
11
|
7
|
14
|
6
|
5
|
13
|
|
|
Grant
|
TEN
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
CAR
|
NE
|
HOU
|
GB
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
NO
|
SEA
|
DEN
|
|
113
|
|
12
|
9
|
2
|
14
|
1
|
15
|
3
|
6
|
4
|
11
|
7
|
13
|
16
|
10
|
5
|
8
|
|
|
Tuccitto
|
TEN
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
CAR
|
NE
|
PHI
|
GB
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
NO
|
KC
|
DEN
|
|
111
|
|
14
|
4
|
6
|
16
|
3
|
10
|
7
|
5
|
12
|
8
|
2
|
13
|
9
|
15
|
1
|
11
|
|
|
Knotts
|
TEN
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ATL
|
NE
|
PHI
|
GB
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
NO
|
KC
|
DEN
|
|
111
|
|
4
|
16
|
6
|
13
|
8
|
15
|
7
|
5
|
14
|
12
|
9
|
11
|
10
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
|
|
Pasquino
|
TEN
|
BAL
|
MIA
|
IND
|
CAR
|
NE
|
HOU
|
GB
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
NO
|
SEA
|
DEN
|
|
110
|
|
13
|
15
|
6
|
11
|
1
|
12
|
16
|
2
|
7
|
10
|
9
|
8
|
14
|
4
|
5
|
3
|
|
|
Brimacombe
|
TEN
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ATL
|
NE
|
PHI
|
GB
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
DET
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
KC
|
DEN
|
|
108
|
|
16
|
9
|
3
|
14
|
4
|
13
|
10
|
5
|
15
|
11
|
1
|
8
|
12
|
2
|
7
|
6
|
|
|
Bitonti
|
TEN
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ATL
|
NE
|
PHI
|
NYJ
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
SEA
|
DEN
|
|
105
|
|
14
|
12
|
10
|
13
|
4
|
9
|
5
|
2
|
16
|
8
|
15
|
11
|
7
|
1
|
3
|
6
|
|
|
Haseley
|
TEN
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ATL
|
NE
|
HOU
|
GB
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
KC
|
DEN
|
|
104
|
|
14
|
9
|
7
|
12
|
6
|
11
|
5
|
4
|
10
|
13
|
3
|
16
|
15
|
2
|
8
|
1
|
|
|
Settle
|
TEN
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
CAR
|
NE
|
PHI
|
GB
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
NO
|
KC
|
DEN
|
|
102
|
|
7
|
2
|
5
|
6
|
4
|
16
|
1
|
8
|
3
|
9
|
13
|
14
|
15
|
10
|
11
|
12
|
|
|
Garda
|
TEN
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ATL
|
NE
|
HOU
|
GB
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
NO
|
KC
|
DEN
|
|
100
|
|
11
|
13
|
10
|
12
|
8
|
16
|
7
|
9
|
4
|
3
|
6
|
15
|
14
|
2
|
5
|
1
|
|
|
Miglio
|
TEN
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
CAR
|
NE
|
PHI
|
NYJ
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
NO
|
SEA
|
OAK
|
|
99
|
|
15
|
10
|
13
|
16
|
8
|
14
|
7
|
6
|
5
|
9
|
4
|
11
|
12
|
2
|
3
|
1
|
|
|
Wimer
|
TEN
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ATL
|
NE
|
HOU
|
NYJ
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
NO
|
KC
|
DEN
|
|
98
|
|
8
|
12
|
7
|
6
|
16
|
15
|
5
|
11
|
4
|
14
|
10
|
9
|
13
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
|
|
Roberts
|
TEN
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
CAR
|
NE
|
HOU
|
NYJ
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
KC
|
OAK
|
|
97
|
|
14
|
10
|
11
|
13
|
6
|
12
|
4
|
2
|
9
|
8
|
7
|
15
|
16
|
1
|
5
|
3
|
|
|
Heiser
|
TEN
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ATL
|
NE
|
HOU
|
NYJ
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
NO
|
KC
|
OAK
|
|
90
|
|
16
|
15
|
13
|
12
|
11
|
10
|
9
|
2
|
8
|
6
|
5
|
14
|
4
|
3
|
7
|
1
|
|
|
Away
|
WAS
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
NYG
|
ATL
|
BUF
|
HOU
|
GB
|
CIN
|
TB
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
KC
|
DEN
|
|
|
Total Pts
|
0
|
16
|
0
|
0
|
63
|
0
|
49
|
49
|
0
|
0
|
105
|
168
|
186
|
6
|
50
|
64
|
|
|
Home
|
TEN
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
CAR
|
NE
|
PHI
|
NYJ
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
DET
|
SF
|
ARI
|
NO
|
SEA
|
OAK
|
|
|
Total Pts
|
186
|
131
|
110
|
182
|
26
|
193
|
52
|
27
|
131
|
148
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
71
|
21
|
5
|
|
|
Tot Conf Pts
|
186
|
147
|
110
|
182
|
89
|
193
|
101
|
76
|
131
|
148
|
106
|
168
|
186
|
77
|
71
|
69
|
|
|
The Chargers, Miami, and Denver were the three big upsets last week, costing the staff almost 300 confidence points.
OVERALL RANKINGS
Larkin extends his lead going into the last week of the season. 15 points may not seem like a lot, but if you take the Week 16 results as an example, that's the difference between the top spot and 12th spot. Technically Pasquino and Tuccitto are still in the hunt as well. Check out the direct comparisons below for more info on the final week strategy.
Staff Member
|
Wk01
|
Wk02
|
Wk03
|
Wk04
|
Wk05
|
Wk06
|
Wk07
|
Wk08
|
Wk09
|
Wk10
|
Wk11
|
Wk12
|
Wk13
|
Wk14
|
Wk15
|
Wk16
|
Wk17
|
Total
|
Larkin
|
88
|
80
|
84
|
85
|
98
|
106
|
72
|
97
|
73
|
64
|
45
|
110
|
92
|
81
|
84
|
114
|
|
1373
|
Brimacombe
|
81
|
97
|
75
|
80
|
98
|
91
|
85
|
88
|
75
|
67
|
46
|
97
|
86
|
82
|
102
|
108
|
|
1358
|
Pasquino
|
89
|
83
|
59
|
77
|
86
|
85
|
91
|
96
|
77
|
74
|
47
|
114
|
83
|
82
|
88
|
110
|
|
1341
|
Tuccitto
|
80
|
91
|
76
|
95
|
78
|
104
|
61
|
98
|
64
|
68
|
55
|
100
|
92
|
83
|
83
|
111
|
|
1339
|
Haseley
|
84
|
79
|
74
|
86
|
79
|
93
|
84
|
96
|
59
|
67
|
58
|
107
|
89
|
76
|
67
|
104
|
|
1302
|
Roberts
|
77
|
73
|
63
|
98
|
94
|
89
|
83
|
99
|
76
|
63
|
43
|
104
|
80
|
87
|
72
|
97
|
|
1298
|
Miglio
|
79
|
88
|
64
|
90
|
92
|
94
|
76
|
93
|
67
|
73
|
51
|
97
|
84
|
75
|
70
|
99
|
|
1292
|
Knotts
|
87
|
81
|
68
|
79
|
75
|
95
|
80
|
86
|
72
|
60
|
34
|
103
|
81
|
78
|
99
|
111
|
|
1289
|
Grant
|
83
|
70
|
54
|
81
|
90
|
85
|
80
|
95
|
72
|
73
|
51
|
92
|
90
|
72
|
75
|
113
|
|
1276
|
Bitonti
|
65
|
75
|
69
|
78
|
90
|
78
|
82
|
91
|
69
|
68
|
50
|
97
|
89
|
83
|
74
|
105
|
|
1263
|
Hicks
|
87
|
75
|
62
|
78
|
93
|
92
|
62
|
89
|
60
|
83
|
32
|
92
|
97
|
63
|
82
|
114
|
|
1261
|
Heiser
|
68
|
96
|
71
|
75
|
73
|
80
|
88
|
93
|
72
|
69
|
49
|
95
|
80
|
76
|
72
|
90
|
|
1247
|
Garda
|
85
|
53
|
70
|
71
|
89
|
89
|
89
|
93
|
75
|
71
|
40
|
86
|
79
|
85
|
70
|
100
|
|
1245
|
Settle
|
89
|
44
|
63
|
82
|
66
|
99
|
95
|
95
|
82
|
65
|
37
|
95
|
82
|
62
|
74
|
102
|
|
1232
|
Wimer
|
74
|
78
|
62
|
72
|
72
|
74
|
49
|
85
|
60
|
89
|
33
|
109
|
71
|
42
|
100
|
98
|
|
1168
|
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week.
Road Team
|
NYJ
|
JAC
|
MIA
|
ATL
|
DET
|
CAR
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
ARI
|
LAC
|
CHI
|
OAK
|
SF
|
CIN
|
IND
|
|
Home Team
|
NE
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
TB
|
GB
|
NO
|
NYG
|
WAS
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
DEN
|
MIN
|
KC
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
TEN
|
|
Staffer
|
The Picks
|
MNF
|
|||||||||||||||
Miglio
|
NE
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
TB
|
GB
|
NO
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
MIN
|
KC
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
TEN
|
51
|
|
15
|
14
|
4
|
1
|
12
|
9
|
8
|
7
|
5
|
16
|
6
|
3
|
11
|
10
|
13
|
2
|
|
Garda
|
NE
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ATL
|
GB
|
NO
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
CHI
|
KC
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
IND
|
40
|
|
13
|
12
|
11
|
10
|
8
|
9
|
7
|
6
|
5
|
16
|
15
|
4
|
14
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
|
Hicks
|
NE
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
ATL
|
GB
|
NO
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
MIN
|
KC
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
IND
|
37
|
|
10
|
14
|
16
|
1
|
2
|
15
|
3
|
13
|
4
|
12
|
11
|
6
|
9
|
8
|
7
|
5
|
|
Heiser
|
NYJ
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ATL
|
GB
|
NO
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
MIN
|
KC
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
IND
|
48
|
|
16
|
15
|
14
|
13
|
12
|
11
|
10
|
9
|
8
|
7
|
6
|
5
|
4
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
|
Tuccitto
|
NYJ
|
JAC
|
MIA
|
ATL
|
DET
|
CAR
|
NYG
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
DEN
|
MIN
|
OAK
|
SF
|
PIT
|
TEN
|
49
|
|
7
|
4
|
2
|
15
|
3
|
6
|
13
|
12
|
10
|
16
|
1
|
14
|
8
|
5
|
9
|
11
|
|
Larkin
|
NE
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ATL
|
GB
|
NO
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
MIN
|
KC
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
IND
|
45
|
|
11
|
10
|
5
|
1
|
13
|
6
|
4
|
9
|
8
|
14
|
2
|
7
|
15
|
12
|
16
|
3
|
|
Knotts
|
NE
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ATL
|
GB
|
NO
|
NYG
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
MIN
|
KC
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
IND
|
47
|
|
16
|
14
|
9
|
1
|
12
|
5
|
4
|
6
|
7
|
15
|
3
|
2
|
11
|
10
|
13
|
8
|
|
Brimacombe
|
NE
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ATL
|
GB
|
NO
|
NYG
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
CHI
|
KC
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
IND
|
42
|
|
16
|
3
|
2
|
4
|
1
|
6
|
5
|
15
|
8
|
7
|
9
|
13
|
11
|
12
|
14
|
10
|
|
Haseley
|
NE
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
ATL
|
GB
|
NO
|
NYG
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
CHI
|
KC
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
IND
|
41
|
|
11
|
15
|
14
|
13
|
12
|
10
|
9
|
7
|
6
|
16
|
5
|
4
|
8
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
|
Pasquino
|
NE
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ATL
|
GB
|
NO
|
NYG
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
CHI
|
KC
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
IND
|
43
|
|
8
|
4
|
2
|
1
|
10
|
3
|
14
|
13
|
16
|
5
|
12
|
11
|
6
|
9
|
7
|
15
|
|
Roberts
|
NE
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ATL
|
GB
|
NO
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
CHI
|
KC
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
TEN
|
46
|
|
11
|
15
|
7
|
5
|
6
|
13
|
3
|
9
|
4
|
16
|
8
|
2
|
14
|
12
|
10
|
1
|
|
Wimer
|
NE
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ATL
|
GB
|
NO
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
CHI
|
KC
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
IND
|
55
|
|
8
|
7
|
6
|
5
|
12
|
11
|
4
|
10
|
9
|
3
|
13
|
2
|
14
|
15
|
16
|
1
|
|
Bitonti
|
NE
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ATL
|
GB
|
NO
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
CHI
|
KC
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
IND
|
58
|
|
13
|
12
|
2
|
10
|
9
|
8
|
7
|
11
|
6
|
15
|
5
|
4
|
14
|
3
|
16
|
1
|
|
Settle
|
NE
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ATL
|
GB
|
NO
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
MIN
|
KC
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
IND
|
45
|
|
15
|
13
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
7
|
8
|
10
|
9
|
11
|
2
|
1
|
14
|
16
|
12
|
6
|
|
Grant
|
NE
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
TB
|
GB
|
NO
|
NYG
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
MIN
|
KC
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
IND
|
46
|
|
16
|
12
|
2
|
3
|
8
|
1
|
7
|
15
|
5
|
10
|
14
|
6
|
11
|
9
|
13
|
4
|
|
Away
|
NYJ
|
JAC
|
MIA
|
ATL
|
DET
|
CAR
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
ARI
|
LAC
|
CHI
|
OAK
|
SF
|
CIN
|
IND
|
|
Total Pts
|
23
|
4
|
34
|
83
|
3
|
6
|
54
|
152
|
16
|
0
|
111
|
40
|
8
|
5
|
0
|
56
|
|
Home
|
NE
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
TB
|
GB
|
NO
|
NYG
|
WAS
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
DEN
|
MIN
|
KC
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
TEN
|
|
Total Pts
|
163
|
160
|
65
|
4
|
122
|
114
|
52
|
0
|
94
|
179
|
1
|
44
|
156
|
125
|
152
|
14
|
|
Tot Conf Pts
|
186
|
164
|
99
|
87
|
125
|
120
|
106
|
152
|
110
|
179
|
112
|
84
|
164
|
130
|
152
|
70
|
|
HEAVY FAVORITES
Lots of crazy stuff happens this week. Some teams are motivated to make or improve their playoff positions. Some are resting their starters because their playoff position is secure. Some are playing for pride and some are already looking to next season. With that, the three unanimous choices seem obvious - Philadelphia who needs to win to make the playoffs, Seattle who needs to win to improve their playoff rank and are playing a weak division rival and Pittsburgh who is also playing a weak division rival and needs to win to make the post-season. Other strong favorites this week include Houston, Atlanta, Green Bay, New Orleans, the Chargers, Rams, and Chiefs.
DUAL SUPPORT
The Indianapolis - Tennessee game on Sunday night has the weakest confidence pool total game score (70) with the Colts being a slight favorite. Division games where one team has more motivation than the other - Minnesota vs. Chicago and Dallas vs. the Giants - are basically a coin flip with about half of the staff coming down on either side. Miami and Buffalo are both playing for pride, but the Dolphins have a tougher road heading to Buffalo in late December.
OVERALL HEAD-TO-HEAD
This table highlights the four guys who have a shot at the top spot. Tuccitto and Pasquino have a bigger mountain to climb, and it's clear that their picks reflect the Hail Mary approach they need to take.
Where a team and total are highlighted in blue - that indicates where a staffer broke from the other three or the Vegas favorite. Where the confidence total and team are highlighted in gray, it shows where that staffer rated the team with significantly more confidence points than the others.
Road Team
|
NYJ
|
JAC
|
MIA
|
ATL
|
DET
|
CAR
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
ARI
|
LAC
|
CHI
|
OAK
|
SF
|
CIN
|
IND
|
|
|
Home Team
|
NE
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
TB
|
GB
|
NO
|
NYG
|
WAS
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
DEN
|
MIN
|
KC
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
TEN
|
|
|
Staffer
|
The Picks
|
MNF
|
Total
|
|||||||||||||||
Larkin
|
NE
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ATL
|
GB
|
NO
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
MIN
|
KC
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
IND
|
45
|
1373
|
|
11
|
10
|
5
|
1
|
13
|
6
|
4
|
9
|
8
|
14
|
2
|
7
|
15
|
12
|
16
|
3
|
|
|
Brimacombe
|
NE
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ATL
|
GB
|
NO
|
NYG
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
CHI
|
KC
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
IND
|
42
|
1358
|
|
16
|
3
|
2
|
4
|
1
|
6
|
5
|
15
|
8
|
7
|
9
|
13
|
11
|
12
|
14
|
10
|
|
|
Pasquino
|
NE
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ATL
|
GB
|
NO
|
NYG
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
CHI
|
KC
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
IND
|
43
|
1341
|
|
8
|
4
|
2
|
1
|
10
|
3
|
14
|
13
|
16
|
5
|
12
|
11
|
6
|
9
|
7
|
15
|
|
|
Tuccitto
|
NYJ
|
JAC
|
MIA
|
ATL
|
DET
|
CAR
|
NYG
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
DEN
|
MIN
|
OAK
|
SF
|
PIT
|
TEN
|
49
|
1339
|
|
7
|
4
|
2
|
15
|
3
|
6
|
13
|
12
|
10
|
16
|
1
|
14
|
8
|
5
|
9
|
11
|
|
|
Staff Commentary on their final picks:
Pasquino:
Game Theory time – The only way for me to move from third to first the final (two) weeks was to take some shots. I almost moved way up last week with my picks (and big points on) Baltimore and Houston last weekend, but the Eagles foiled that plan. This week I have to take even more wild shots, so I am boosting my picks on the Ravens, Giants, Eagles, Chargers, Bears and even the Packers to try and move up in the standings – along with a big bet on the Colts to close out the season. Putting big points on games that may lack confidence gives me a chance at moving up, and with just 136 points available for the week it is about the only chance left to go for the win. So, if you are in a similar position, put big points on games that are tough to call and hope you have enough right selections and points on those games to make up the difference. Good luck, and Happy New Year!
Tuccitto:
As a decided underdog, the operative strategy is to be contrarian, but within reason. In 2015, I was in an almost identical position and was able to pull off a huge upset using said strategy. In other words, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. For those unaware, the strategy entailed two components: 1) flipping the order of my Top 8 confidence picks, such that 16 points became 9, 15 became 10, and so on; and 2) flipping the winners of my Bottom 8, such that 8 points were assigned to the opponent my normal process picked, 7 points were assigned to the opponent my normal process picked, and so on.
The only thing I did differently for the 2018 version was to incorporate an analysis I wrote up for ESPN Insider way back in 2011. I know full well that what I found then might not apply now, but I was willing to take a chance exploiting that incredibly thin potential edge because of my underdog status.
The primary result I found back then was that teams that have clinched playoff berths and so are only vying for seeding tend to underperform expectations. This week, those teams are the Bears, Chargers, Chiefs, Patriots, Rams, Seahawks, and Texans. Because Seattle was in the Top 8 according to my normal process, I didn't pick Arizona to win. (And in fact, as per the strategy I used in 2015's comeback, I flipped the Seahawks from 9 confidence points to 16.) But the other six teams were in my Bottom 8, so I picked all of them to lose. Obviously, all of them won't lose, but the point of this is that more of them are likely to lose than is suggested by conventional wisdom.
It's possible -- likely, even -- that I'm going to do awful this week. But if I don't, I'm most likely to pull off the miracle I need or drop down to fifth or worse, rather than finish in "who cares?" fourth.
Good luck this weekend!