Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 4 - Footballguys

Weekly Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread). NFL Office Pool Cheat Sheet

Looking to dominate your office pool this season? Fifteen Footballguys.com staff members are here to help you out. Each week they will pick the winners of every NFL game, and rank their selections based on how confident they are that the team will win. The most-confident pick gets 16 points, and the least-confident gets just 1. We'll even total up everyone's picks so you can get an overall consensus on who our staff think will be the most likely winners. Each week we'll announce the weekly winners, and track the overall record for the entire season. A couple of things to note before we get to the picks:

  • Picks for this pool are straight up (no point spread considered).
  • Picks are due on Wednesday nights, and will not reflect any late-breaking news. If your league allows for last minute changes, please make adjustments to your office pool accordingly.
  • Our staffers also play in weekly picks Against The Spread, and Survivor Style 'Pick one Winner each week' formats as well. Check out the other weekly articles for more help with those type of games.

RESULTS FROM LAST WEEK

What a crazy week. Tons of Upsets. Unlikely division leaders. Losing streaks broken. Best of all - Victory Fridges and free beer! Dave Larkin survived the insanity and managed to post a decent score of 84 compared to the rest of the field. Both he and Danny Tuccitto only missed five games but Tuccitto was eight points behind Larkin due to his team weights. Despite losing his top two picks, Larkin did pretty well. That's a reflection of how bad the week was - you can lose your top two picks and still win the whole thing by a lot if you manage the rest of your board correctly.

Staff Member
NYJ
SF
DEN
NYG
OAK
GB
IND
CIN
TEN
NO
BUF
LAC
DAL
CHI
NE
PIT
MNF
TOT
CLE
KC
BAL
HOU
MIA
WAS
PHI
CAR
JAC
ATL
MIN
LAR
SEA
ARI
DET
TB
TOT
PTS
Larkin
CLE
KC
BAL
NYG
MIA
GB
PHI
CAR
JAC
ATL
MIN
LAR
SEA
CHI
NE
PIT
53
84
6
10
9
2
8
7
14
5
15
3
16
4
13
12
11
1
Tuccitto
NYJ
KC
BAL
NYG
MIA
WAS
PHI
CIN
JAC
ATL
MIN
LAR
DAL
CHI
NE
TB
49
76
2
14
9
3
12
4
16
1
13
11
15
8
5
10
7
6
Brimacombe
CLE
KC
BAL
HOU
MIA
GB
PHI
CAR
JAC
ATL
MIN
LAR
SEA
CHI
NE
PIT
53
75
3
4
12
13
5
2
11
10
14
9
16
8
6
15
7
1
Haseley
NYJ
KC
BAL
HOU
MIA
GB
PHI
CAR
JAC
ATL
MIN
LAR
SEA
CHI
NE
TB
55
74
1
12
10
2
3
4
11
8
13
7
15
16
5
9
14
6
Heiser
CLE
KC
BAL
HOU
MIA
GB
PHI
CIN
JAC
ATL
MIN
LAR
SEA
CHI
NE
TB
58
71
14
15
13
12
11
10
9
7
6
5
16
4
3
2
8
1
Garda
NYJ
KC
BAL
HOU
MIA
GB
PHI
CAR
JAC
ATL
MIN
LAR
SEA
CHI
NE
PIT
55
70
1
14
8
9
7
11
6
5
13
4
16
10
2
15
12
3
Bitonti
CLE
KC
BAL
HOU
MIA
GB
PHI
CIN
JAC
ATL
MIN
LAR
SEA
CHI
NE
TB
56
69
11
10
9
8
7
6
2
1
16
4
15
14
3
13
12
5
Knotts
CLE
KC
BAL
HOU
OAK
GB
PHI
CAR
JAC
ATL
MIN
LAR
DAL
CHI
NE
PIT
50
68
9
10
6
8
1
11
15
7
12
5
16
14
2
3
13
4
Miglio
CLE
KC
BAL
HOU
MIA
GB
PHI
CAR
JAC
ATL
MIN
LAR
SEA
CHI
NE
TB
56
64
7
15
3
11
8
9
10
2
14
5
16
12
1
6
13
4
Roberts
CLE
KC
BAL
HOU
MIA
GB
PHI
CIN
JAC
ATL
MIN
LAR
DAL
CHI
NE
TB
58
63
4
11
5
10
7
8
14
1
15
3
16
9
6
13
12
2
Settle
CLE
KC
DEN
HOU
MIA
GB
PHI
CAR
JAC
ATL
MIN
LAR
SEA
CHI
NE
TB
70
63
4
11
6
7
3
12
13
10
15
2
16
9
5
8
14
1
Wimer
CLE
KC
BAL
HOU
OAK
GB
PHI
CIN
JAC
NO
MIN
LAR
DAL
CHI
DET
TB
77
62
6
9
5
4
3
8
2
16
14
1
12
13
7
11
15
10
Hicks
CLE
KC
BAL
HOU
OAK
GB
PHI
CIN
JAC
ATL
MIN
LAR
DAL
CHI
NE
TB
59
62
12
11
13
10
9
1
8
3
15
2
16
14
5
4
6
7
Pasquino
CLE
KC
BAL
HOU
OAK
GB
PHI
CIN
JAC
ATL
MIN
LAR
SEA
CHI
NE
TB
54
59
7
13
1
14
4
10
12
3
15
5
16
11
6
9
8
2
Grant
CLE
KC
BAL
HOU
MIA
GB
PHI
CIN
JAC
ATL
MIN
LAR
DAL
CHI
NE
TB
54
57
2
14
8
9
7
10
12
6
13
4
16
11
1
3
15
5
Away
NYJ
SF
DEN
NYG
OAK
GB
IND
CIN
TEN
NO
BUF
LAC
DAL
CHI
NE
PIT
Total Pts
4
0
6
5
17
109
0
38
0
1
0
0
26
133
152
9
Home
CLE
KC
BAL
HOU
MIA
WAS
PHI
CAR
JAC
ATL
MIN
LAR
SEA
ARI
DET
TB
Total Pts
85
173
111
117
78
4
155
47
203
69
233
157
44
0
15
31
Tot Conf Pts
89
173
117
122
95
113
155
85
203
70
233
157
70
133
167
9

That's a lot of red picks. 814 total confidence points were lost when heavy favorites Minnesota, Jacksonville, Houston, New England, and Green Bay all lost their respective contests. Atlanta took down another 69 with only Mark Wimer picking the Saints to upset his Falcons. It was a rough week for everyone.

OVERALL RANKINGS

Larkin's big win vaulted him into second place, just a single point behind the leader Brimacombe. Tuccitto held on to third as Pasquino tumbled out of the top five with his second-to-last place finish this week.

Staff Member
Wk01
Wk02
Wk03
Wk04
Wk05
Wk06
Wk07
Wk08
Wk09
Wk10
Wk11
Wk12
Wk13
Wk14
Wk15
Wk16
Wk17
Total
Brimacombe
81
97
75
253
Larkin
88
80
84
252
Tuccitto
80
91
76
247
Haseley
84
79
74
237
Knotts
87
81
68
236
Heiser
68
96
71
235
Pasquino
89
83
59
231
Miglio
79
88
64
231
Hicks
87
75
62
224
Wimer
74
78
62
214
Roberts
77
73
63
213
Bitonti
65
75
69
209
Garda
85
53
70
208
Grant
83
70
54
207
Settle
89
44
63
196

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week.

Staff Member
MIN
CIN
NYJ
DET
PHI
BUF
HOU
MIA
TB
CLE
SEA
SF
NO
BAL
KC
MNF
LAR
ATL
JAC
DAL
TEN
GB
IND
NE
CHI
OAK
ARI
LAC
NYG
PIT
DEN
TOT
Miglio
LAR
ATL
JAC
DAL
PHI
GB
IND
NE
CHI
OAK
SEA
LAC
NO
PIT
DEN
40
13
10
15
3
9
14
4
7
5
2
11
12
8
6
1
Garda
LAR
ATL
JAC
DET
PHI
GB
IND
NE
CHI
CLE
SEA
LAC
NO
PIT
KC
66
2
14
5
3
10
9
8
7
6
13
11
4
12
1
15
Hicks
LAR
CIN
JAC
DAL
PHI
GB
HOU
NE
TB
CLE
SEA
LAC
NYG
PIT
KC
61
13
1
14
2
12
3
4
11
5
10
6
15
7
8
9
Heiser
LAR
ATL
JAC
DET
PHI
GB
HOU
NE
CHI
CLE
SEA
LAC
NO
PIT
KC
56
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Tuccitto
LAR
ATL
JAC
DAL
PHI
GB
IND
NE
CHI
OAK
SEA
LAC
NO
PIT
KC
49
12
10
15
3
5
11
4
13
1
8
2
14
7
6
9
Larkin
LAR
ATL
JAC
DET
TEN
GB
IND
NE
TB
OAK
SEA
LAC
NO
PIT
DEN
57
8
9
7
11
2
13
6
15
5
4
12
14
10
3
1
Knotts
MIN
ATL
JAC
DET
PHI
GB
IND
NE
TB
CLE
SEA
LAC
NO
PIT
KC
46
3
7
15
1
9
11
10
12
4
5
8
14
13
2
6
Brimacombe
LAR
ATL
JAC
DET
PHI
GB
HOU
NE
TB
CLE
SEA
LAC
NO
PIT
KC
55
6
11
12
4
13
14
5
10
3
1
2
15
7
8
9
Haseley
LAR
ATL
JAC
DET
PHI
GB
IND
NE
CHI
CLE
SEA
LAC
NO
PIT
KC
50
7
14
12
3
8
9
6
11
10
2
5
15
13
1
4
Pasquino
LAR
CIN
JAC
DET
PHI
GB
IND
MIA
TB
CLE
SEA
LAC
NO
PIT
KC
58
4
2
8
10
11
14
3
1
7
5
9
15
12
6
13
Roberts
MIN
ATL
JAC
DAL
PHI
GB
HOU
NE
CHI
CLE
SEA
LAC
NO
BAL
KC
57
3
9
13
7
8
15
4
6
5
2
11
14
12
1
10
Wimer
LAR
ATL
JAC
DET
PHI
GB
HOU
NE
CHI
CLE
SEA
LAC
NO
PIT
DEN
45
6
5
12
14
11
10
13
9
4
15
3
7
8
2
1
Bitonti
LAR
ATL
JAC
DET
PHI
GB
IND
NE
CHI
OAK
SEA
LAC
NO
BAL
KC
61
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
3
4
2
7
15
6
1
5
Settle
LAR
ATL
JAC
DET
PHI
GB
HOU
NE
TB
CLE
SEA
LAC
NO
PIT
KC
52
3
9
15
5
12
14
1
13
2
4
11
10
8
6
7
Grant
LAR
ATL
JAC
DAL
PHI
GB
IND
NE
TB
OAK
SEA
LAC
NO
PIT
KC
56
12
10
13
1
11
15
4
7
5
3
2
14
8
9
6
Away
MIN
CIN
NYJ
DET
PHI
BUF
HOU
MIA
TB
CLE
SEA
SF
NO
BAL
KC
Total Pts
6
3
0
74
140
0
36
1
31
63
105
0
127
2
94
Home
LAR
ATL
JAC
DAL
TEN
GB
IND
NE
CHI
OAK
ARI
LAC
NYG
PIT
DEN
Total Pts
115
135
181
16
2
171
53
132
42
19
0
182
7
60
3
Tot Conf Pts
121
138
181
90
142
171
89
133
73
82
105
182
134
62
97

HEAVY FAVORITES

This week, we have another opportunity to see who can manage their risk the best. With so many heavy favorites, any type of upset will take down a vast majority of the board. Despite Buffalo's big win last week, everyone on the board chose Green Bay to beat them at home. Other unanimous picks include the Jaguars, Seahawks, and Chargers. Other teams with high expectations to win include the Rams tonight, Atlanta, Philadelphia, New England, New Orleans, Pittsburgh and KC on Monday Night. It's worth noting that Pittsburgh did not receive a ton of confidence points, but only two staffers bet against them this week and each only wagered a single confidence point on the Ravens. This game has the lowest total confidence points in play.

DUAL SUPPORT

Not much here this week with many contests having a clear favorite. Tampa Bay on the road after the Monday night game against Chicago is the toughest pick of the week with the Bears receiving just 11 more confidence points than the Bucs and the overall game only receiving 73 total points. Indianapolis has a slight edge over the visiting Texans, but the game itself has only 89 total points, indicating a tougher match that could go either way. Cleveland looks to make it two in a row against the Raiders this week, and they have a majority of the staff supporting their efforts. But five of the staff expect the Raiders to restart the losing streak so this game lands in the Dual Support area.

ODDS AND ENDS

With Carolina and Washington on a bye this week, we start the toughest part of the season. Ratings now go from 15 to 1, and it becomes harder to move up or down on the overall leaderboard because there are fewer points in play each week. A perfect score will get you 120 points this week compared to the 'normal' 136. Given how most of the staff are picking the same winners in each game, the weights assigned to each become even more important. Take some extra time this week if your office pool allows you to weight your picks and make sure to move the risker picks down a few notches.

Good luck this weekend!