FanDuel College Football Main Slate Week 7 - Footballguys

Breaking down the Main CFB Slate on Fan Duel for Week 7

The Week 7 main slate on FanDuel kicks off at 12:00 ET and features 13 games. Our breakdown will highlight core plays, which are cash game options and also players to target most heavily in GPPs. We will also list some other players worth consideration for GPPs. As always, hit me up on Twitter with questions or comments (@hindery).

Slate overview

The 82-point total in the Central Florida at Memphis game stands out on the slate. The two teams combined for 117 points and 1,479 yards in their last meeting and the potential for fire works makes some of the top players in this game core plays on the slate.

We also have some huge team totals for heavy favorites Alabama (51), Ohio State (44.5), and Notre Dame (37.3). Weighing the blowout risk for these teams is one of our toughest decisions because the GPP upside is huge.

Team

Line

Total

Team Total

Opponent

Alabama

-28

74

51

Missouri

Ohio St.

-29.5

59.5

44.5

Minnesota

UCF

-4.5

81

42.75

Memphis

Memphis

4.5

81

38.25

UCF

Notre Dame

-21

53.5

37.25

Pittsburgh

Texas

-14

60.5

37.25

Baylor

Penn St.

-13.5

53

33.25

Michigan St.

West Virginia

-6.5

56

31.25

Iowa St.

Washington

-3

57.5

30.25

Oregon

Georgia

-7.5

50.5

29

LSU

Florida

-7

50.5

28.75

Vanderbilt

Michigan

-8.5

49

28.75

Wisconsin

Miami

-6.5

48.5

27.5

Virginia

Oregon

3

57.5

27.25

Washington

Texas A&M

-2

52

27

South Carolina

South Carolina

2

52

25

Texas A&M

Iowa St.

6.5

56

24.75

West Virginia

Baylor

14

60.5

23.25

Texas

Missouri

28

74

23

Alabama

Vanderbilt

7

50.5

21.75

Florida

LSU

7.5

50.5

21.5

Georgia

Virginia

6.5

48.5

21

Miami

Wisconsin

8.5

49

20.25

Michigan

Michigan St.

13.5

53

19.75

Penn St.

Pittsburgh

21

53.5

16.25

Notre Dame

Minnesota

29.5

59.5

15

Ohio St.

*home teams in bold

Quarterback

We are not getting enough of a discount on the mid-tier options to pass up the elite quarterbacks. Given the huge upside and extremely high floor of the top seven quarterbacks on the slate, there is no reason to get cute and try to save a small amount of money on lesser options.

The difficulty comes in choosing which of the top seven quarterbacks (Dwayne Haskins, Will Grier, Tua Tagovailoa, McKenzie Milton, Trace McSorley, Sam Ehlinger, and Ian Book) to target. Each has at least one game of 37+ fantasy points already this season and has legitimate 40-point potential in Week 7. All seven are in play for GPPs.

Core Plays

McKenzie Milton, Central Florida ($10,200)

Milton is averaging 300 passing yards and 3 passing touchdowns per game, which is nothing to sneeze at. While his fantasy numbers as a pure passer don’t quite match some of the other top quarterbacks on the slate, he adds a lot of fantasy production with his legs as well. Milton is also averaging just over 10 fantasy points per game as a runner and twice this season has scored multiple rushing touchdowns in a game. It is tough to bank on rushing touchdowns, so Milton may have a slightly lower floor than some other quarterbacks (as we saw last week). Still, given the expected shootout (81 point over/under) against Memphis, it is hard not to roster Milton. He put up ridiculous fantasy numbers against Florida Atlantic (50.3 points) and Pittsburgh (46.2 points) before the relative clunker last week. It is likely UCF decided to try to save Milton from taking extra hits in an easy game with Memphis looming in Week 7. We should again see double-digit carries from Milton, which makes him the top play on the slate.

Trace McSorley, Penn State ($10,000)

McSorley arguably has the toughest matchup of the top passers against a Michigan State defense that ranks 24th in defensive S&P. However, the Spartans have been most vulnerable through the air and have historically had a tough time containing rushing quarterbacks. As with Milton, it is the rushing numbers which make McSorley stand out from the crowd. He has run 58 times for 452 yards and 6 touchdowns this season in just five games. He put up 175 rushing yards in his last game against Ohio State and should give the Spartans problems as both a passer and runner.

Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State ($10,500)

Ohio State has the slate’s second-highest team total (44.5 points) and with the shaky performances of the Ohio State defense, Haskins should see action into the fourth quarter despite the 29.5-point spread. With the Buckeyes struggling to run the ball, nearly all of the offense has come through Haskins of late. He had the most prolific passing performance in Ohio State history last week, coming just a few yards shy of the single game yardage record while tying the all-time record with six touchdown passes. Haskins should shred a Minnesota secondary that made Iowa’s Nate Stanley look like a superstar last week.

Also worth consideration

Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama ($10,300)

Tagovailoa is having a historic season. He has completed 76-of-101 passes for 1,478 yards, 18 touchdowns and no interceptions. Averaging nearly 15 yards per attempt is insane and nobody can touch his efficiency numbers. The only problem for DFS purposes is that Tagovailoa isn’t playing enough to put up truly monster numbers. In fact, he hasn’t thrown a single pass in the fourth quarter the entire season. Even one half of action from Tagovailoa has been fantasy gold, however. He put up 334 passing yards and 4 touchdowns in the first half against Arkansas last week. Plus, if Missouri can score enough points that Alabama has to play starters into the fourth quarter, Tagovailoa has slate-winning upside.

Sam Ehlinger, Texas ($9,900)

Ehlinger’s rushing upside makes him worth consideration in GPPs. He has scored 6 of the 9 rushing touchdowns Texas has managed as a team and is just 12 yards shy of leading the team in rushing yards (287 on the season). If the Baylor offense can keep things interesting and Ehlinger remains the go-to short yardage runner, he could again be a slate winner like he was last week.

Running Back

It is hard to feel great about both the workload and matchup for any running back priced below $9,000. We can roll the dice with a cheaper RB2 or just bite the bullet and pay up for two top running backs and know we are going to have to cut some corners at wide receiver

Core Plays

Trayveon Williams, Texas A&M ($9,200)

Williams leads all SEC running backs with 720 rushing yards and has 7 rushing touchdowns. He also has 12 catches for 133 yards as a receiver. The total numbers are even more impressive considering the Aggies have faced the elite run defenses of Clemson and Alabama. In four games against non-elite competition, Williams is averaging 187 yards and 1.75 touchdowns per game. He has a nice matchup against a South Carolina defense that is allowing 194 rushing yards per contest. The Gamecocks were smashed for 306 rushing yards last week against Missouri. Williams could have a field day against this defense.

Darrell Henderson, Memphis ($10,100)

Henderson is a tough player to figure. His yards per carry (11.8) number this season is insane and perhaps not totally unsustainable since he averaged 8.9 last season. He breaks tackles at a high rate and has elite breakaway speed. Henderson also has 14 touchdowns already this season (12 rushing and 2 receiving). The only issue is that he isn’t a true workhorse back in terms of touches. Only once in his career (Week 3 against Georgia St.) has he had more than 15 carries in a game.

In the biggest game of the season for Memphis, it would make sense to give Henderson 20+ touches, which would likely lead to monster fantasy numbers. But we can’t bank on that in part because in two matchups against Central Florida last season, Henderson averaged just 12.5 touches per game.

Myles Gaskin, Washington (9,000)

Gaskin should have one of the highest floors on the slate. The senior has faced Oregon three times in his career and put up 120+ rushing yards and scored a touchdown in each of those games. He has 490 scrimmage yards (163.3 per game) against Oregon in his career. In some ways, Gaskin is the anti-Darrell Henderson on this slate. He has a guaranteed heavy workload but there are some concerns about his efficiency and touchdown upside. Gaskin is getting slightly more touches per game than last season but has not been nearly as efficient, averaging just 4.5 yards per carry. While Gaskin had a whopping 24 total touchdowns last season, he has just 5 so far in 2018. Despite the inefficient first half, 20+ touches for a player of Gaskin’s talent in a matchup he has historically dominated is tough to pass up.

Also in Consideration

Keaontay Ingram, Texas ($7,800)

Ingram disappointed as a core play last week against Oklahoma. He averaged 6.6 yards per carry (13 carries for 86 yards) but quarterback Sam Ehlinger ran in three short touchdowns, which kept Ingram out of the end zone. Ehlinger’s involvement as a runner, especially in the red zone, is the only thing keeping Ingram from being a core play because he checks all of the boxes otherwise. His price is outstanding for a lead back in a good offense at just $7,800. He has clearly taken command of the Longhorns backfield (13 of 19 running back carries last week) and has a sweet matchup against a Baylor run defense that Kansas State running back Alex Barnes gashed for 250 yards last week. If Ehlinger doesn’t vulture all of the touchdowns, Ingram could have a breakout fantasy performance.

Dexter Williams, Notre Dame ($9,800)

Williams has been a revelation since returning from suspension two weeks ago. He has 339 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns over the last two weeks. Williams is firmly entrenched as the top back for the Irish moving forward and has a nice matchup against a Pittsburgh run defense that has given up big rushing totals when facing top offenses this season. Unfortunately, his price has risen considerably and there are similar options at slightly cheaper salaries.

Mike Weber, Ohio State ($7,000)

Weber hasn’t been 100% and is playing through a nagging foot injury. He also hasn’t had a big fantasy game since his Week 1 explosion and has been outshined by both J.K. Dobbins and the Ohio State passing game. However, the Buckeyes have continued to split touches between Dobbins and Weber fairly evenly (108-82 advantage for Dobbins on the season) and the price has dropped to a point where Weber looks like a nice bargain in a game where Vegas projects the Buckeyes to score about six touchdowns.

Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin ($9,900)

Taylor is always in consideration regardless of the matchup. He carried 19 times for 132 yards against Michigan last year, so he could again have a nice game. With the high price and extremely difficult matchup against the Wolverines, Taylor is only a GPP dart instead of a top play like he typically is.

Wide Receiver

If we want to pay up for a pair of top quarterbacks and also squeeze in a pair of $9,000+ running backs, we are only left with $20,000 to 22,000 for our three wide receiver spots. Thus, the focus is on finding value either with multiple plays from the mid-tier or by going with a near-minimum priced player to allow us to fit in one of the elite options.

Core Plays

Jalen Hurd, Baylor ($9,700)

Hurd will fly just a little bit under the radar this week because he is so expensive and due to the fact that Baylor’s team total is a modest 23.3 points. The matchup against a Texas defense that has been excellent (except for the final minutes against Oklahoma) over the past five weeks is legitimately concerning for Baylor. However, Hurd’s usage has been massive recently and his rushing upside is extremely unique at the position. In the last two weeks, Hurd has a whopping 34 touches. He has carried the ball 14 times and also pulled in 20 catches on 29 targets. When adding targets plus carries, he had his number called 21.5 times per game. If you can fit Hurd in, he is a great play. His huge involvement as both a runner and receiver gives him a solid floor and if the Texas-Baylor game turns into a shootout, Hurd’s upside is immense.

Dredrick Snelson, Central Florida ($8,200)

Nelson ranks third on UCF in targets (28), receiving yards (269) and touchdowns (2) this season. However, it is worth nothing he has missed 1.5 games with an injury that kept sidelined for half of the FAU game and the Week 5 matchup against Pittsburgh. He also checked out early in a couple of the blowouts. Add it all up and Snelson’s 21 receptions have come in less than three full games of action. His relatively bargain price of just $8,200 doesn’t seem to take into account the missed time. In an expected shootout against Memphis, Snelson should see a full four quarters of action and plenty of targets, which makes him a strong bargain at this price.

Devin Duvernay, Texas ($5,700)

Duvernay lags far behind his teammates Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Collin Johnson in production. However, he has just narrowly missed hooking up with Sam Ehlinger for long touchdowns multiple times in recent weeks. Duvernay is seeing 5.2 targets per game and many of them have been high-value targets on throws into the end zone or deep balls. Duvernay’s decent floor due to his relatively high share of targets combined with his big-play upside at the incredibly low price of $5,700 make him a strong salary-saving play in all formats

Also Worth Consideration

David Sills V, West Virginia ($9,600)

Sills has good numbers so far (30-369-6) but has been a slight disappointment to date considering the amount of hype he had coming into the season. He has just four more catches than Marcus Simms and Gary Jennings Jr, who both have 26. However, in terms of targets, Sills still looks like the clear #1. His 48 targets far outpace Simms and Jennings, who have 34 and 32 respectively. The matchup against Iowa State is merely average though and Sills’ salary is tough to fit in, which puts him just outside of the core play category despite his obvious touchdown upside.

Alabama Pass Catchers

Perhaps it is cheating a bit to just name a position group but if you are playing GPPs, this is a group to target heavily. If you are entering multiple lineups, it is wise to try to get exposure to each of the Crimson Tide’s top receivers. Alabama’s team total of 51 points is by far the highest on the slate. Plus, Missouri has enough fire power offensively to perhaps force the starters to play deeper into the second half than normal. Tua Tagovailoa is likely to hook up with a couple of his top targets for long touchdown passes and with the Crimson Tide expected to score approximately seven touchdowns, at least one of these wide receivers should post big fantasy numbers. Two weeks ago, it was Henry Ruggs III(26.1 points) and Jaylen Waddle (33.3 points). Last week, it was Jerry Jeudy (27.5) and tight end Irv Smith (19.3). Each of those four are in play this week with Jeudy the safest option, but also the priciest at $9,500. DeVonta Smith ($7,000) is also worth considering. He is the lone starter who didn’t get in on the big-play fun the last two weeks, which has caused his price to tumble all the way down to $7,000. Smith still ranks second on the team in targets, just six behind Jeudy, and might be due for a big game soon.

Binjimen Victor, Ohio State ($6,200)

Victor has been featured here before due to his big-play ability and bargain-basement pricing. His price has risen slightly due to the fact he has scored touchdowns in three straight games. The last two touchdowns, against Indiana and Penn State, were of the highlight variety and two of the most impressive plays made by any Buckeye this season. Victor doesn’t see a lot of targets but most of the ones he does get are deep down the field and he has proven capable of making big plays. His strong play of late might also earn him a few more looks going forward and give him even more chances to make spectacular touchdown grabs.

Dirt-Cheap Tight Ends

In both tournaments and cash games, it is worth considering the incredibly positive impact rostering a near-minimum pass catcher has on the rest of your team. The top finishers in FanDuel GPPs this season have often featured four or five of the elite, high-priced players on the slate along with one or two extremely cheap players. Anecdotally, my top finish in the big main slate GPP this season was 3rd place in Week 5. That team had a $4,500 pass catcher who gave me 0 points. If I had chose more astutely and picked someone who gave me even a handful of points, it would have been enough to finish 1st. However, this is a great example of how you don’t need big production from your WR3 to finish highly if your roster is otherwise loaded with high-priced studs. For example, it is easy to see scenarios in Week 7 where the $14,000 combination of David Sills ($9,600) and Drew Sample ($4,400) outscores a $14,000 combination of two mediocre wide receivers priced at $7,000 each.

Within this context, you can be happy if your cheap tight end can get a few catches and score a short touchdown. Here are some near-minimum tight ends on this slate with the chance to do so:

Kendall Blanton, Missouri ($4,700) Missouri’s wide receiver corps has been decimated by injuries, which leaves both tight ends as top targets in the passing attack. The Tigers were able to pound away with the running game last week but won’t have the same luxury in Week 7 facing Alabama. Blanton is sixth on the team in targets (19) but two of the players ahead of him (Emanuel Hall and Nate Brown) on the list are out, which leaves Blanton as a top-4 target for Drew Lock.

Cole Kmet, Notre Dame ($4,200) Kmet is a sophomore tight end with just 8 catches and 68 receiving yards for his career but he looks like a talented young player. He has been playing through a painful sprained ankle, showing improved health each week. Kmet is a starter for Notre Dame in the two tight ends base offense and should emerge as a solid producer in this tight end-friendly system. He had 3 catches for 19 yards last week.

Drew Sample, Washington ($4,400) Sample has caught 12 of 15 targets for 112 yards and a touchdown this season and posted a 5-37-1 line two weeks ago against BYU.