There is one common theme that trumps everything else in Week 10's DraftKings main slate: pricing errors. Across the board there are games with high totals and teams with near-perfect matchups, but the players in the games are not priced accordingly. At each position there seems to be a pricing error or two that will lead to some very chalky plays in cash-games as well as some high-level GPP pivots. This main slate is sprinkled with marquee matchups that will serve as the perfect appetizer for a masterful night slate of night games including Alabama @ LSU. Unfortunately, the marquee early games forecast to be battles of defensive-minded teams that will likely need to grind out low-scoring victories and therefore not DFS-friendly games. I wish you all luck in balancing tracking the players in your DFS lineups and monitoring the clashes of top-15 teams throughout the day on Saturday, because I know I will need it.
GAME STACK UPDATED AT 7:05 AM EST
JALAN MCCLENDON UPDATED AT 10:50 AM EST
Listed here are the most notable games for DFS purposes. In green are games with the highest projected totals, according to betting markets, and in red are the games with the lowest projected totals on the slate. Try to avoid using too many players in any single lineup from the game(s) in red. On the other hand, the game(s) in green should provide enough points and fantasy points across the board to make multiple pieces on each team viable for fantasy lineups
- SYRACUSE @ WAKE FOREST | SYRACUSE (-5), GAME TOTAL: 75
- GEORGIA @ KENTUCKY | GEORGIA (-9), GAME TOTAL: 44
- OKLAHOMA STATE @ BAYLOR | OKLAHOMA STATE (-8), GAME TOTAL: 68
Eric Dungey, the fourth-year starter for Syracuse, has really come into his own in one of college football’s fastest and most prolific offenses. His ceiling matches just about everyone on the slate in this up-tempo attack, and his $8,400 price tag does not make much sense. Dungey contributes on the ground weekly, registering 9 rushing touchdowns in his 8 games this season en route to a startling 6-2 start that has earned the Orange a top-20 ranking in the first official College Football Playoff rankings of the season. This weekend, Syracuse takes on Wake Forest, one of the few teams to play at a faster pace than Syracuse. Wake Forest combines their blistering pace on offense with one of the nation’s weakest defenses (109th in S&P+ allowed on pass plays and 102nd in S&P+ overall.) This game is projected to be the highest scoring game on the slate (more on that in the Game Stack section,) with a 75-point over/under on the betting markets.
Eric Dungey could not ask for a better matchup in Week 10. As slight favorites in a game against one of the nation’s worst defenses, Dungey should be significantly more expensive than he is on this slate-- $8,400 for a quarterback in this matchup is far too cheap. He will likely be a cash-game staple across sharp lineups everywhere, as well as one of the most-rostered quarterbacks in GPPs.
Trevor Lawrence is back again in an attempt to repeat his stellar performance against one of the nation’s weakest defenses. Last week, in this same article, his extreme talent and prime matchup were highlighted as reasons for his potential success. At $8,200, Lawrence posted over 32 DraftKings points against Florida State. This week, Lawrence and the Clemson Tigers get an even better matchup against the Louisville Cardinals. The Louisville defense is reeling this season, ranking 99th overall in defensive S&P+. The secondary, following the loss of Jaire Alexander and others to the NFL, is struggling mightily, ranking 108th in S&P+ allowed on passing plays. Lawrence’s price has not moved at all following his domination of Florida State, and his ceiling is still as high as anybody’s. Trevor Lawrence’s arm-talent is as good as anybody in the entire nation, but as a freshman, the question has been, “Is he ready?” Last week, Lawrence answered that question with a “Yes.” that was about as loud and clear as anybody could have asked for.
Trevor Lawrence, for just $8,200, matches up against the second weakest secondary on the slate this weekend. Clemson, with the highest implied team total of any team on the slate, will likely find the end zone early and often in this matchup. Another four-touchdown performance is not out of the realm of possibilities this week for Trevor Lawrence. In a similar price range as Eric Dungey, he may make for a great GPP pivot or a super-flex option in balanced cash lineups.
Jalan McClendon split snaps with Charlie Brewer at quarterback for Baylor to start the year. Brewer eventually took hold of the starting job by proving to be a more consistent passer, but this week Brewer may not be available for Matt Rhule’s team. Charlie Brewer was concussed last week against West Virginia, and while injury information is tough to come by in college football, head injuries are no joke. This will be operating under the assumption that Brewer is not healthy enough to play when Baylor plays host to Oklahoma State on Saturday afternoon. Jalan McClendon took over against West Virginia and went 16-for-21 passing the ball while also rushing for a score. This week, McClendon forecasts as the best bargain option at quarterback in this matchup against a weak Oklahoma State defense that ranks 76th in the nation in S&P+ allowed on passing plays, and in a game projected to amass 68 points, both teams will likely light up the scoreboard in a classic Big 12 shootout.
Jalan McClendon, for just $6,600 is the most reliable option under $7,000 on DraftKings at quarterback, given Charlie Brewer is unavailable for this weekend’s game. McClendon’s dual-threat capability gives him a higher floor than a pocket-passing quarterback filling in as a replacement, making him a safer option than most other bargain-bin quarterbacks this week.
**UPDATE: Charlie Brewer has cleared concussion protocol and may be available for this game. Nothing certain, but if Brewer plays, McClendon's value plummets. Instead, look to Sam Hartman for value at QB**
Justice Hill and the Oklahoma State Cowboys have been one of the most up-and-down teams in the entire nation this season. In just their last two games they have been obliterated by Kansas State and pulled off a major upset of Texas. This week, however, Oklahoma State enters the game against Baylor as 8-point favorites. Baylor’s defense this season has been many things, but one of them is not “good.” Oklahoma State’s offense gets one of the best matchups on the slate against the Bears’ defense that ranks 95th or worse in all defensive S&P+ metrics. Justice Hill checks in at $6,400 for the Pokes, substantially lower than expected given this prime matchup. Hill, along with the team as a whole, has been very up-and-down this season himself. He followed 3 straight games of 6.2+ yards per carry with 3 straight games of 4.0 or fewer yards per carry over his last 6 games. This game and the matchup present a strong spot for Hill to get back on track and keep Oklahoma State riding high following the upset of a top-10 conference opponent.
Justice Hill for $6,400 is one of the most talented running backs on the slate, but he is not priced to reflect that. He is undeniably Oklahoma State’s bell cow running back, meaning there is little internal threat to his volume and role in the offense. The primary threats to Hill’s production have been the matchups and the game flow Oklahoma State has found itself in. This game, fortunately, does not forecast to present any of those issues for Hill and the Cowboys’ offense. Hill makes for a strong option in any format against the Baylor Bears abysmal defense.
J.K. Dobbins, at $6,300, is the cheapest he has been all season. This price decrease comes on the heels of a 49-20 drubbing at the hands of the Purdue Boilermakers. Ohio State struggled throughout the game on both sides of the ball, but in the fourth quarter, they were left completely unable to run the football because of the massive amount of ground they had to make up in a hurry. Prior to his last 2 outings, Dobbins posted at least 15.3 DraftKings points in 5 straight games. The matchup against Nebraska this weekend at home and coming off a bye week is an elite situation for Dobbins to get back on track as one of the nation’s most consistent running backs. Ohio State is projected to score over 45 points on Saturday against the Cornhuskers, and Dobbins will likely be involved in a handful of those scores.
J.K. Dobbins’ price has fallen to the middle of the pack amongst running backs to typically receive the bulk of action in their respective backfields. This price decrease can be directly traced back to his last two performances against Purdue (terrible game script) and Minnesota (another disadvantageous game script.) This weekend’s matchup is far better than the previous two, and if Dobbins finds the end zone just one time he will almost certainly reach value for his $6,300 pricetag.
Rico Dowdle was listed last week as the back-up to Ty’Son Williams following Williams’ strong week in practice, but Dowdle used that as motivation to put his best foot forward. Dowdle ended up toting the ball 14 times for 140 yards and a touchdown against Tennessee, and in Week 10 he will be in an even better matchup. South Carolina heads to Ole Miss to take on the Rebels and their explosive offense. The Rebels, however, couple this explosive offense with one of the nation’s weakest defenses. Essentially, Ole Miss would fit perfectly into the Big 12 of years’ past, but instead, they must go through the gauntlet of an SEC schedule each year. Ole Miss’ rush defense ranks 116th in the nation defending the run, according to S&P+, making Rico Dowdle a viable option even if he is not a bell cow running back for his team. Dowdle will likely share carries with Ty’Son Williams throughout the game, but if he manages to reach his typical 15-20 carry total, Dowdle may be a vital piece in GPP-winning lineups.
Rico Dowdle will not break the bank this week, at $5,700 he makes for the perfect GPP pivot away from the other mid-priced running backs. This matchup against Ole Miss is as good as he will see this season, and he will likely fly a bit under the radar because of his market share of team carries. In GPPs, however, the key is finding the ceiling that others may not see. The ceiling for Dowdle is derived from the matchup and the pace at which Ole Miss will likely try to play this game. Do not be surprised if Dowdle finds the end zone once or twice this weekend and is a critical piece in tournament-winning lineups.
Paris Campbell is another stud in a great matchup with an unreasonably low price tag. Campbell has not been held under 7 receptions since Week 3 against TCU. This weekend, the Ohio State Buckeyes take on Nebraska at home following a bye week. Ahead of the bye week, Ohio State stumbled against Purdue, and the Boilermakers stepped on their throat late by breaking the game wide open in a 49-20 blowout. This game for Ohio State is the perfect collision of narratives: Urban Meyer teams typically dominate following a bye week and they are also looking to bounce back and prove they are still capable of making a deep postseason run. Nebraska’s first season under head coach Scott Frost has not gone as planned, largely due to a lack of talent on the defensive side of the ball. Ohio State’s prolific offense has a significant upper-hand in this matchup and they are projected to total the second most points of any individual offense on the slate.
Paris Campbell’s $6,600 is far too low on DraftKings with full-PPR scoring as well as a 100-yard bonus in the scoring system. He has not found the end zone in two weeks, but even if he fails to do so this week, his high-volume role in the offense will almost surely make up for that. Campbell, for his price, is arguably the top wide receiver on the entire slate and is a great cash-game option as well as GPP.
Sean Riley has emerged as the most reliable receiver in the Syracuse offense in recent weeks. Riley primarily focuses on shorter routes and has been peppered with targets from quarterback Eric Dungey recently. Riley’s level of involvement in one of the best offenses on the slate far exceeds his price of just $5,900. Syracuse’s offense is in one of the best matchups they (or any team) will see all year, against the fast-paced Wake Forest offense. Sean Riley will be thrown into the perfect storm of a weak secondary, high snap count, and high volume that may lead to an absolute ceiling game from a player who derives most of his value from short passes. Riley also has not found the end zone since Week 4 and for a player so heavily involved in his team’s respective passing game, that likely will not last much longer.
Sean Riley and the Syracuse offense have such a great matchup this week against Wake Forest that almost their entire offense could be worthy of a full write-up in this article. However, that is what the Game Stack section is for. Riley’s price has only increased slightly following his recent uptick in volume in Syracuse’s offense, and for $5,900 he is an elite option in cash games.
North Carolina certainly has not instilled fear into its opponents this season; the team ranks 91st in overall S&P+ (2nd worst on the slate,) but that does not damage Anthony Ratliff-Williams’ value much, if at all. In fact, if North Carolina falls behind Georgia Tech early, the game script will actually favor Ratliff-Williams and the passing game. Ratliff-Williams has been given just about as many targets as he can handle in recent weeks, but the conversion of targets into production has not been there… yet. This weekend, against Georgia Tech’s 103rd ranked pass defense (via S&P+,) Ratliff-Williams has the perfect opportunity to right the ship and convert his 10.67 targets/game number into impactful fantasy production. Anthony Ratliff-Williams shockingly checks in at just $4,600 this weekend in large part due to his inability to find the end zone.
Week 10 against Georgia Tech is a great chance for Anthony Ratliff-Williams to get on track as UNC’s clear-cut number-one wide receiver. It is never too late for a draft-eligible player to kick things into high-gear because even when the collegiate team’s dreams are dashed, the individual is still playing for his future. Anthony Ratliff-Williams was a member of the 2017 First Team All-ACC roster, and he clearly has the talent to post big numbers. This is a fantastic opportunity to buy-low on a player with a massive target share in his respective offense. Ratliff-Williams may not be a safe play because of performances like last week (10 targets, 3 receptions, 18 yards,) but at this price-point, it will be tough to find any safe options. Consider using Ratliff-Williams in higher-risk cash lineups as well as GPP lineups this Saturday afternoon.
SYRACUSE @ WAKE FOREST
This week Syracuse heads into Wake Forest in a matchup of two teams that typically dominate the middle of the ACC standings each year. Syracuse, however, has kicked things into gear this season and is currently ranked in the first College Football Playoff rankings of the 2018 season. Dino Babers and his up-tempo offense has driven Syracuse up the rankings this season as quarterback Eric Dungey has finally become a serviceable (and maybe even above-average) college football player. Aside from the players previously listed in the article, on Syracuse's roster look to Dontae Strickland as a value running back option this weekend. In the passing game, Nykeim Johnson has seen an increase in usage in Syracuse's offense in recent weeks along with Sean Riley. Jamal Custis' price, however, may have moved him a bit out of consideration aside from a small GPP bullet. For Wake Forest, Sam Hartman under center is a viable option for a game stack at the quarterback position in a GPP lineup or maybe a highly risk-tolerant cash team, and his price affords opportunities to pay up elsewhere. At running back, there is not much to like for Wake Forest this week, but Greg Dortch is one of the most prolific wide receivers in the country, and in this matchup he is an incredible option. He is not included above because of the cost and how cash-game roster construction may not allow for Dortch's inclusion in lineups, but he will likely be the top scorer and an elite GPP play. Lastly, Sage Surratt, a freshman wide receiver for Wake Forest, costs just $4,000 and may be the low-owned piece to stack with Hartman in a GPP. His floor is quite low, but he was targeted nine times his last time out, showing his ceiling of involvement. In a game stack, Surratt warrants consideration when paired with Sam Hartman.
**UPDATE: Matt Colburn at RB for $6,700 on DraftKings is a viable option as well in this matchup. It was previously noted that "there is not much to like for Wake Forest (at running back)", however Colburn will likely be a popular choice in both cash games and GPPs**
In all, this game is going to be incredibly fast-paced, which may lead to production at all positions. The players listed here are primarily GPP options (as that is how game stacks should typically be deployed,) and a few different iterations and combinations of these various options will likely maximize the efficiency of tournament play.
Thanks all for checking out the article, and as always fire away any questions you may have regarding the slate to me on twitter @ThaGreatZambino and I will do my best to get back to you as soon as I see the tweets and messages!