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Best Ball Strategy: Quarterback Deep Dive - Footballguys

Looking over the past two years of data we want to look at the floors and ceilings of the quarterback position.

Fellow Footballguy, Justin Howe kicked off our Best Ball coverage just last week with his article titled Best Ball Fantasy Football: A Primer. It's now time to follow up that with a series of articles that will break down each position over the past two years with a focus on player's weekly production. In Best Ball, the key is both to look for players who will give you a steady stream of fantasy points week in and week out but also on the flip side you want to find the players at each position that can also deliver big spike weeks along the way. That being said we will be looking at players floors and ceilings in this exercise and seeing if we can find value Best Ball plays along the way. We will break down the players weekly fantasy production over the past two years (32 games) using DRAFT scoring and look at Top 20, Top 12, and Top 5 weeks for each player.

First up we are going to look at the quarterback position and try to find any potential values, must-haves, floor players, or high ceiling players. The chart below we are focusing on finding the quarterbacks that have the highest ceiling which we will evaluate by how many top-five fantasy weeks they had at the position over the past two seasons.

Quarterback
DRAFT ADP
Stats from the Last Two Seasons (32 Regular-Season Games Possible)
(on 7/17)
Games Played
Top 20
Top 12
Top 5
Top 12 %
Top 5 %
65
32
24
18
15
56.3%
46.9%
39
23
22
18
10
78.3%
43.5%
58
7
6
6
3
85.7%
42.9%
72
32
24
17
9
53.1%
28.1%
100
32
26
15
9
46.9%
28.1%
112
16
14
13
4
81.3%
25.0%
90
32
26
15
8
46.9%
25.0%
88
29
20
13
7
44.8%
24.1%
75
31
22
13
7
41.9%
22.6%
108
32
25
16
7
50.0%
21.9%
111
29
22
17
6
58.6%
20.7%
150
29
20
14
6
48.3%
20.7%
162
26
14
8
5
30.8%
19.2%
139
32
23
17
6
53.1%
18.8%
121
32
29
15
6
46.9%
18.8%
208
17
10
5
3
29.4%
17.6%
132
30
20
14
5
46.7%
16.7%
160
32
26
12
5
37.5%
15.6%
183
13
7
4
2
30.8%
15.4%
124
30
22
12
4
40.0%
13.3%
185
30
23
11
4
36.7%
13.3%
118
32
28
16
4
50.0%
12.5%
128
24
13
6
3
25.0%
12.5%
146
30
18
10
3
33.3%
10.0%
107
12
6
4
1
33.3%
8.3%
153
31
15
8
2
25.8%
6.5%
173
32
20
14
2
43.8%
6.3%
203
32
16
7
2
21.9%
6.3%
147
13
4
2
0
15.4%
0.0%

High-Ceiling Quarterbacks

The three names at the top are no surprise as far as upside goes with Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, and Deshaun Watson leading the position. Before looking at any numbers you would assume that Aaron Rodgers would be top of this list but he actually comes in second behind Russell Wilson. Wilson was a top-five scorer at the quarterback position 15 out of 32 games over the past two seasons for a high of 46.9%. He was almost a top-five-or-nothing type of scorer at the position because he only added a top-12 scorer on 3 of his other 17 games. If you are looking at Wilson in Best Ball you will want to pair him with a cheaper ADP play such as Dak Prescott who finished a top-12 scorer 53.1% of the time and could help fill the void of the games that Wilson might struggle in.

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