Top Props Super Bowl 53.
What is a prop bet?
For those that are unaware, during the Super Bowl you can essentially bet on anything that occurs from the start of the broadcast until the broadcast ends. Notice how we said broadcast and not the game? Things like the coin toss, how long the national anthem will be, what the first song will be played at the half-time show, how many times the camera will show players wives, and many more are extremely popular prop bets.
Due to there being so many prop bets, the Sportsbooks inevitably have mispriced something. While nothing is a guarantee, we are working in the realm of probabilities and essentially trying to come to the conclusion that something is more likely than the odds that are being given. For example, the coin toss is -103 which means that you would have to wager $103 to win $100 on DraftKings Sportsbook ($203 total). This is simply not a good bet, as a coin toss is a 50% probability with no way to gain an edge, and ultimately, you’re paying the website a rake in order to place that wager.
Either team to score 3 times unanswered - Including Overtime (Yes -225 No +175)- No
The answer to this one is really simple. This is a standard line that is put out for most games and it is adjusted based on the total of the game, so a higher scoring game in theory has a higher chance of a team scoring three unanswered times. What this prop does not take into account is how difficult it is to score three consecutive times against the Patriots. Over their last eight playoff games, opponents have done this just once and it was the Super Bowl against the Falcons. While it is by no means a guarantee, as the Patriots are a team that can score in bunches, at +175, we need this to hit at a higher than 36% mark to consistently profit.
Total Players To Attempt A Pass - Including Overtime (Over 2.5 +100, Under 2.5 -134)- Under
This prop is an overreaction to last year’s Philly Special play and the dropped Tom Brady catch. The reality is this, the Patriots have played in eight Super Bowls with Tom Brady and the Patriots have had just two games in which someone other than Tom Brady threw a pass. Now let’s look at the Rams, what you have to worry about here is a fake punt from Johnny Hekker as he is the only Rams player under Sean McVay who has thrown a pass outside of a quarterback. Even so, Hekker has just thrown five passes over the two seasons and it would seem unlikely that the Rams would go to a fake punt in the Super Bowl knowing the risk of giving the Patriots a short field.
Super Bowl MVP- Jared Goff +200
Since 2010, seven of the nine games have had an MVP that was a quarterback. The only other players to have received the award were both linebackers in Von Miller and Malcolm Smith. The reality is that the winning quarterback traditionally has been given the MVP unless there is a combination of them having a low yardage total and something miraculous happened such as a defensive touchdown. If you like the Rams this week, taking Jared Goff at 2/1 odds to win the MVP is a nice wager that increases your odds above the +125 moneyline for the Rams.
How long will it take Gladys Knight to Sing the National Anthem? (Over 1 Minute 47 Seconds -175, Under 1 Minute 47 Seconds +135)- Over
This was a mistake that the books are correcting by giving a juiced up line instead of increasing the time. Having gone back and watched several Gladys Knight National Anthem performances she typically averages 2 minutes and 3 seconds. They often base this line off of rehearsals and the reality is that once the performer gets out there, they enjoy the moment a little bit more and slow down unless they’re nervous. Gladys Knight won’t be nervous and won’t be speeding up, this is a huge moment for her and she will enjoy every second of it.
Combined Yardage of all Touchdowns (Over 87.5 -145, Under 87.5 +105)- Under 87.5 yards
This one is a fun one that will keep you intrigued throughout the game. The Patriots, are a team this year that typically will take away the big plays especially during the playoffs as we saw them take away Tyreek Hill, and forced the Chiefs to go through Damien Williams. They’re also a team without a major deep threat, as 7 of the 10 touchdowns that they have scored in the playoffs were within 10 yards and only one was longer than 20 yards (29 yards). On the other side of the ball, the Rams are very similar in that in their two playoff games, only one touchdown has come from five yards out or more which was a 35 yard Todd Gurley run. This is a team that is built on the run and short to intermediate passing. This is a game that should feature a lot of short yardage touchdowns, and with the over/under at 56.5, that means that the bookmakers are projecting there to be seven touchdowns. If there are seven touchdowns, that means the average length of the touchdown is 12.5 yards out which based on how these two teams play, seems very high. You do run the risk of one 40+ yard touchdown hurting this, but neither team has had a long touchdown this postseason.
Team to Score the Longest Touchdown (Rams -110, Patriots -110) – Rams
Taking the Rams to score the longest touchdown is a bit of a tough one simply because with the Patriots favored, they should score more touchdowns and have more opportunities to score. However, as mentioned in the previous prop, the Patriots don’t score long touchdowns as 7 of their 10 are within 10 yards and only one has been longer than 20 yards. The Rams have more deep options in Josh Reynolds, Brandin Cooks and even Gerald Everett who all could break a long play.
Shortest Successful Field Goal (Over/Under 26.5 Yards)- Under
While this one is a little bit tough as you’re essentially having to get a field goal at the nine yard line or closer to win, these teams are not as good inside the Red Zone as one might think. During the regular season, the Rams were 19th in touchdown scoring percentage in the Red Zone at just 56% and the Patriots were 12th at 62%. With both teams potentially driving the ball down the field and not a lot of big plays, there should be plenty of opportunity for a stop inside the ten that forces a field goal.
What color will the liquid be that is poured on the game winning Coach?- Clear +160
Todd Gurley gave a little bit of a hint at this one during Super Bowl Media Day and said that their flavor of Gatorade is Ice Punch which is a clear liquid. Looking back at the Patriots, in their four Super Bowls that they have won, they did not dump Gatorade on Bill Belichick in two of those Super Bowls. In Super Bowl 49, it was Blue, and in Super Bowl 39 it was clear. If they do not pour Gatorade on Belichick, this bet is a push and you get your money back, so it seems reasonable that if the Rams win it will most likely be Clear and then if the Patriots win you have a decent chance it will also be clear.