Each NFL team is its own fantasy football organism. Will they thrive or die in 2018? This series outlines the critical questions for each team across their skill position depth charts. In this edition: NFC North
Allen Robinson and Trey Burton were both splash free agent acquisitions for the target-depleted Bears offense. Including a factory reset of the offensive infrastructure, Chicago is one of the trendy uptick team choices for 2018.
Verdict: The price points for each are Allen Robinson around WR15 and Trey Burton around TE9 by early July positional ADP. Historically for Robinson, the presumed WR1 for the Bears, to meet his ADP, Mitchell Trubisky would need to finish at QB9/10 in fantasy. The same projection holds true for Trey Burton to hit the Top 10 for tight ends, a finish in the QB10/11 zone for Trubisky. While Matt Nagy looks to be a breath of fresh air for the outlook in Chicago, this is a historically high bar for Trubisky to improve from QB39 in PPG a year ago into QB1 land of a crowded position. For a reference point, Matthew Stafford was QB10 last season in PPG, throwing for nearly 4,500 yards with 29 touchdowns. In addition to limitations of the offense, the two individual players in question have histories to pick apart. Robinson has essentially one big year on his record, a garbage-time-infused 2015 season of 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. Robinson enters 2018 off ACL surgery plus a team change, which has historically translated to tempered productions compared to expectations. For Burton, he lived in Zach Ertz's Philadelphia shadow during his rookie contract, averaging a paltry 10.0 yards-per-reception and yet to eclipse 350 yards in a season. Adam Shaheen was a second round pick for the franchise last offseason, a draft status which leads to strong opportunity as a starter during their rookie contract. Both Robinson and Burton are priced aggressively by the market to even hit value. At a minimum, the odds are against both of them and even more assuredly is one of them will struggle to approach expectations.
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