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Early-Round Safe & Risky Players - Footballguys

Identifying safe and risky players to find the perfect balance between team floor and ceiling

Diversifying Your Portfolio

If you're on #FantasyFootballTwitter, you've no doubt seen tweets about diversification. Those are commonly used in the context of best ball rosters. But diversification can be a strategy within a single team as well. Drafting a team full of known commodities could lead to a solid team that can’t get over the hump and win it all. But having a team with all boom-or-bust players could lead to a level of variance that feels unsafe.

Using projections from David Dodds, Bob Henry, Maurile Tremblay, and Jason Wood, a range of outcomes for each player can be gauged by the variance within the projections and the delta between the highest and lowest projections of the group.

To put this in terms of investment methods, let's categorize players into three groups:

CDs

Certificates of Deposit are a safe, low-risk investment with a small expected return. In fantasy football terms, this is the unsexy pick who you'll plug into your lineup each week and know what to expect. And even if the high-yield result doesn't come through, the results generally won't sink you. 

Bonds

These are slightly more risky investments. They might yield great results, but a return isn't guaranteed. For fantasy football purposes, bonds are players whose ceiling we know exists because we've seen it; unfortunately, the same can be said of their floors.

Playing the Market

Buying stock is far from a guaranteed success. The market is fluid and unpredictable. In fantasy football, these are players with a vast range between their high-end and low-end projections who aren't proven commodities. 

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