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Footballguys Staff 6-man DRAFT mock - Week 15

An evaluation of a 6-man mock FantasyDraft for Week 15. Each participant answers questions about their strategy and picks. 

Six Footballguys staff completed a 6-man Week 15 mock draft using the DRAFT scoring format below. Each participant must fill a roster with exactly these five positions: QB-RB-RB-WR/TE-WR/TE using a serpentine draft style. 

OFFICIAL DRAFT SCORING FORMAT

Passing Yard 0.04
Passing TD 4
Interception Thrown -1
Reception 0.5
Rushing Yard 0.1
Rushing TD 6
Receiving Yard 0.1
Receiving TD 6
Return TD 6
2-Point Conversion 2
Fumble Lost -2

THE PARTICIPANTS FOR THE WEEK 15 DRAFT:

1.01 Sean Settle
1.02 Justin Howe
1.03 Keith Roberts
1.04 James Brimacombe
1.05 Dan Hindery
1.06 Devin Knotts

DRAFT RESULTS 



DRAFT EVALUATION

sean settle - SLOT 1

Overview - Sean is strong at running back with Le'Veon Bell and Melvin Gordon III. That duo is impressive considering he had to wait until the end of the second round to pick Gordon. DeAndre Hopkins has been a constant threat all season long, but his consistency will be put to test this week at Jacksonville, who by far is the best defense in the league. Eight of twelve teams have not had a wide receiver catch a touchdown against Jacksonville this season. Nine of those games, wide receiving corps were held to less than 125 yards receiving. Sean elected to go with Drew Brees at quarterback, which could come back to haunt him. Brees has only three Top 10 fantasy finishes this season. The ground game has been so dominant, he doesn't need to pass 40 times a game. Larry Fitzgerald was Sean's last pick. He's been hit or miss this year with four Top 10 weekly finishes and eight times outside of the Top 20. In order for Sean to have to finish first or second this week, Brees is going to have to come up big.

sean ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
This week was all about going big with high upside guys. Having the first overall pick is great when you can take a top scorer like Bell, but it is a long wait for it to come back around to you. I was a little surprised to see a shift in draft strategy with 2 WR taken in the first round but stuck with my plan of getting both of my running backs early. I was targeting one of the New Orleans running backs for my second pick, but Justin stacked both this week and left me with Melvin Gordon III. There is a lot of upside here, especially with how San Diego has played recently. A tough matchup against Kansas City is what caused him to fall all the way to me. Despite the quarterback uncertainty in Houston, D. Hopkins is still a high-volume play that will get his receptions, and Brees is due for a bounce-back game against a Jets secondary that was picked apart by Trevor Siemian last week. Fitzgerald is another guy that does not have an elite quarterback, but he is going to get his catches and is the best option in that offense right now. This week is a little boom or bust but there is a lot of potential for scoring from everyone drafted.

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?  
Melvin Gordon III’s matchup against Kansas City is going to make or break my team this week. The KC defense has been very streaky all season and that does not play well for Gordon who has had a very similar performance. There is a chance he combines for 150 yards and 2 scores, but also a chance that Philip Rivers takes over and all of the scoring is done through the air and without Gordon. For me to keep pace with some of these other teams this week, I will need a breakout game from Gordon.

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
It is hard to argue that you can get value out of the number 1 overall pick, but Bell has been that special of a player this season. He has reclaimed the top running back spot after Kareem Hunt faded this season, and the two-headed attack in New Orleans has degraded the value of an individual back. Bell has been the best all-around running back and it is not even close. No matter what the matchup is, if I have the first pick I am going to take Bell and it is automatic. I expect a big game from Bell this week against a soft New England defense that has shown it has holes all season long.

4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
If I could take one more player this week it would be Jordy Nelson. This comes after Aaron Rodgers was medically cleared and expected to start for the Packers this week. There has been so much lost value with Nelson after Rodgers went down, but it instantly comes back this week. The WR/QB duo has worked together so long that there will be no adjustment period and Nelson should be considered a WR1 this week and for the rest of the season. 

justin howe - SLOT 2

Overview: Justin has two stacks going for him, the Saints ground attack of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram II, plus the Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers combination. In the middle, he has Adam Thielen. This is a good group of talent that could put the pieces together to finish on top at the end of the week. If the Saints take to the ground against the Jets and come up big with multiple touchdowns, Justin will be sitting pretty at running back. If some chance the Jets stonewall the Saints rushing game, then it's a strategy that didn't pay off. the same goes for Green Bay against Carolina. Rodgers is coming back after having surgery eight weeks ago. I'm a bit skeptical that he'll be in typical Rodgers form, but this may be the only time to get him at a discounted cost of fifth-round pick. Justin will be living by the risk/reward strategy this week. It might put him in the penthouse or the outhouse. 

justin ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
As usual, my goal was to stockpile dual workhorse running backs. There's just so much more touch security at RB than at WR. The only non-RB option I'd have considered here is Antonio Brown, but I like Kamara's security a hair better with a 32-point Vegas projection; a floor around 15 touches brings him plenty of fantasy value, so he fits fine as a RB1. Adding a similar outlook in Ingram's gives me plenty of both floor and ceiling. And I love the way the rest of my roster shook out; this panned out beautifully for what I aim for each week. I typically look for a QB/WR stack later, and I feel like I stumbled into a fantastic one at the end of the draft.

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you? 
Stacking the Saints backs makes me feel weird, but it's been a great DFS move more than once this season. Bell cow backs are huge in DRAFT thanks to their touch floors, and on a typical week, the Saints boast two of them. When the Vegas outlook is right (like this -16 mark) there's just a ton of ceiling in rostering the pair. The Saints will score in bunches - that's about as Vegas-sure as anything this week - and these two will garner tons of the meat. Or, they won't: the Saints could easily jump to an early 21-0 lead and grind the game out on Ingram's legs while Kamara watches. I'm confident, though, as Kamara isn't that type of change-of-pace back - he's woven intricately into what the Saints do.

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I'm not going to quibble with the other quarterbacks picked, but it's just absurd that I landed a starting Aaron Rodgers so late. For one, I'm not concerned about a late-week or Sunday morning setback - DRAFT will allow me to swap him for any undrafted QB if he's declared out. And the ceiling I'm getting here is just way beyond what's to be expected from a fifth pick. The fact that he's stacked with a true touchdown-maker - one that's dominated the team's passing game for most of the season and came to me late as well - is tremendous value here. If he struggles or lacks for volume in his return, I'll be fine with it; this is as safe a last-pick QB as could be made, bar none.

4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
I love that I've stacked Davante Adams with Rodgers, but certainly could've taken Jordy Nelson. In fact, had I panic-picked Rodgers a round sooner, Nelson would've been my last pick without question. Again, I like Adams' volume and touchdown outlooks just fine. But there's a good chance any of us who faded or merely passed on Nelson will feel silly if he just immediately regains his mega-dynamic role, catching 6+ balls and 2 scores.

 

keith roberts - SLOT 3

Overview - Like some of the others, Keith is loaded with talent at running back with Todd Gurley (at SEA) and LeSean McCoy (vs MIA). Both backs are capable of carrying the load for their respective teams as a rusher and receiver. Michael Thomas and A.J. Green are no slouches either, but they were picked a bit later due to inconsistencies and/or matchup. Thomas has at least six catches in six of the last eight games but he has only two touchdowns in that span. A.J. Green has a tough matchup against Xavier Rhodes and the Vikings defense, but there is a silver lining. The volume and target totals could be high which can always lead to positive plays and a potential score. What puts Keith over the top with his lineup is Tom Brady against Pittsburgh this week. New England may have struggled last week at Miami, but one bad game doesn't tilt the needle in the opposite direction for Brady. He'll have his horse tight end (Gronkowski) back this week and Pittsburgh has allowed 86 points in the last three games as they learn to adjust their defense without Ryan Shazier. I like this team and if the ball bounces the right way it could be one of the top teams at the end of the week. 

keith ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
My one key strategy coming into the draft was to definitely gain some level of exposure to the Steelers-Patriots game. It was a simple one, but proved to be difficult drafting from the three-hole as each pick was so heavily dependent on the flow of the draft. With the exception of my fourth-round pick of Tom Brady required to comply with the aforementioned strategy, the rest of my draft was purely value-based as I saw key guys such as LeSean McCoy and A.J. Green slip. Had Rob Gronkowski not been taken just before my second-round pick, I would have jumped on him there—so kudos to James for that selection. I then became even more worried once James took Ben Roethlisberger in the third round as the first quarterback off the board. This has to be the first week of the season that five quarterbacks were all taken prior to the final round, making for a very interesting draft indeed. 

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?  
Surprisingly enough, I am most worried about Tom Brady coming into this week. Yes, he is in what should be a high-scoring affair with the Steelers in a game that absolutely matters in terms of the AFC playoff picture. But Brady has looked atrocious in recent weeks. When I saw three of my fellow drafters pass up on Brady between my third and fourth-round pick, I knew I had to jump on him since he was the last viable way to get exposure to that game. I trust Brady’s ceiling as he is still the top quarterback in football, but I can’t say I am not worried based on “recency bias” and the fact that the Steelers are allowing just the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I see a ton of value on my roster with this draft. I liked my pick of Michael Thomas in the third round as he has an excellent matchup with a Jets offense giving up the ninth and third most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers and quarterbacks respectively. Thomas has also now scored in back to back games while coming off a season-high 10 receptions with 117 yards last week. For a guy who has been known for his high floor all season, I am liking to see his ceiling bump up in recent weeks. A.J. Green is the other value that I am excited about. While the Bengals offense has displayed its low floor for everyone to see, that entire show is funneled through Green--particularly in recent weeks as he is usurping nearly 40% of the team’s targets in their last three games. He gets a tough matchup with Xavier Rhodes, which explains why everyone else passed on him, but I still like Green’s ceiling and will bank on him reaching value through sheer volume this week while hoping he can sneak into the end zone for his ninth touchdown of the season. 

4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
The next receiver on my list to draft this week would have been Devin Funchess. The Panthers have a spectacular matchup against a Packers defense that cannot seem to cover anyone this season, giving up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers on the season and third most points to quarterbacks over the last four weeks. Funchess has led the team in targets for three straight weeks and is averaging 81 receiving yards per game over his last five games with four touchdowns over that span with Kelvin Benjamin out of the picture. Even with Newton struggling in the passing game, Benjamin is his primary target and has been producing at a solid rate. The one other player I just want to mention here is Devonta Freeman. If Tevin Coleman were to miss this week due to being wrapped up in the concussion protocol, Freeman immediately vaults to a top running back option in a great matchup against the Buccaneers. It was simply too early in the week to make a move on Freeman in this draft though, as they play on Monday night which will give Coleman an extra day to exit the protocol.  If you hear that Coleman is ruled out, bump Freeman way up on your draft board. 

james brimacombe - SLOT 4

Overview - James is taking advantage of the 53 point total that Vegas is projecting for the Patriots at Steelers game this week. James arguably has the best quarterback/receiver stack in the game in Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown. That combination alone may put his team in position to sit atop the mountain at week's end. He adds Rob Gronkowski, Devonta Freeman and Jordan Howard to his lineup. If Tevin Coleman (concussion) is out again this week, Freeman could be in position to rack up decent points on Monday night. Gronkowski will also be a participant in the score-heavy New England at Pittsburgh game. It's difficult to find a weak team in this week's draft. I definitely have eyes on James' team as one of the better squad's drafted. 

james ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I wanted to stack the Patriots and Steelers game and wanted to get a pair of running backs that could see a high volume of touches this week. It turned out great for me on the game stack as I got the Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown stack and brought it back with Rob Gronkowski on the other side. If this game was to shootout I would be in a great spot with these three players. At running back it was Devonta Freeman and Jordan Howard as the selections who both see a high volume of touches and also have touchdown potential every game.

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?  
Ben Roethlisberger is the first name that comes to mind as I went with him with Tom Brady still on the board. New England’s defense has improved but they are still 5th worst against opposing quarterbacks. Roethlisberger is on a roll currently with 5 straight multi-touchdown games. He is coming off a 506-yard passing performance against the Ravens where he completed 44-of-66 passes. 

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I think the wait on running back position didn’t kill me this week with both Freeman and Howard as my last two picks. I like the value I got there with both of those guys as it allowed me to game stack Patriots and Steelers.

4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
I thought Devin Funchess was a great play this week and he went undrafted. I stacked up on the position early but if I went RB early I would have gladly taken Funchess at the end of this draft. Panthers are at home against the Packers in a playoff atmosphere game where Funchess will be one of the main targets for Cam Newton this week. 

dan hindery - SLOT 5

Overview - The strength of Dan's team is his receiving corps, led by Julio Jones and Travis Kelce. The last time Jones faced Tampa Bay he dropped 12-253-2 on them. The Buccaneers will surley be paying attention to him, but if they don't have the talent to defend him, it could be another long day for the Tampa faithful. With this game being on Monday night, you can bet Jones will be looking to give maximum effort. Travis Kelce has at least seven catches in four of the last six games. I may have elected to pick Josh Gordon over him, but if he has a big game with a score, the pick will be worthwhile. Dan's running backs include Leonard Fournette and Alex Collins. Both are hot lately, especially Collins who Dan selected in the last round. Having Collins fall into his lap after going receiver-heavy early on may be the pick that puts Dan in position to finish in the Top 2. 

dan ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
For one of the first times this season, it feels optimal to wait on running back in 6-Team Drafts. The running back position is at least 12-deep with solid options. Plus, outside of Le'Veon Bell, there aren’t any slam dunk running back options with strong combinations of expected volume and plus matchups. Thus, my hope at 1.05 was to land either Antonio Brown or Julio Jones. When Brown went one pick before me, Jones was an easy pick. He has absolutely destroyed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in his career, averaging over 125 receiving yards per game and scoring 10 times in 11 games. I strongly considered going Rob Gronkowski at 2.02 but couldn’t pass up Leonard Fournette. The Jaguars are massive 11-point home favorites and Fournette ran all over the Texans in their previous meeting. Travis Kelce was one of the last wide receiver/tight ends left who I felt strongly about and was an easy choice in the third round. I rolled the dice on Cam Newton in the fourth and added one of my favorite plays of the week, Alex Collins, with my final pick. 

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?  
Cam Newton is the wild card upon which my Week 15 success will hinge. Newton has been on a real hot streak as a runner. He has scored 5+ points as a runner in each of the past 8 games. In addition to his obvious weekly rushing upside, Newton has an incredibly favorable matchup against the Packers struggling pass defense. Green Bay has given up more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks over the past three weeks than any other team.

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I love Alex Collins as one of the final picks in the draft at 5.05. The availability of someone like Collins late was the entire reason I felt comfortable drafting receivers with two of my first three picks. Collins has scored five touchdowns over the last four games and scored in each of his last four outings. He is coming off of an extremely impressive performance against Pittsburgh, in which he racked up 166 total yards. The Cleveland Browns defense against running backs has faded considerably in recent weeks. Over the past four games, the Browns have allowed 118 total yards to Jamaal Williams, 106 yards to Melvin Gordon III, 165 yards to Joe Mixon and 118 yards to Leonard Fournette. Baltimore is favored by more than a touchdown against the Browns and Collins should have another big game.

4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
There were a number of workhorse running backs who didn’t get drafted due to the positional depth this week. Kareem Hunt is the most intriguing. Last week, Kansas City finally looked like the team that was amongst the league’s best over the first half of the season. It was no coincidence that getting Hunt rolling again was a key to their success. Hunt ranked up 138 total yards on 28 touches. With the division likely on the line this weekend against the Chargers, Kansas City should again ride Hunt. He rushed for 178 yards and a score the last time these two teams matched up.  

devin knotts - SLOT 6

Overview - Devin has a balanced team picking RB-WR-QB-WR-RB. His bookend running backs include Kenyan Drake and Jamaal Williams, two surprise backs who have played particularly well especially lately. Keenan Allen and Josh Gordon are key pieces to their respective offenses, who have performed at a high level in the last 2-3 games, especially Allen. Gordon will face a Ravens team that has struggled in the secondary since losing Jimmy Smith in Week 13. Allen's matchup is a bit tougher on the road at Kansas City. the Chiefs will get their star corner, Marcus Peters, back, plus the recent acquisition of Darelle Revis could make things difficult for the Chargers and Allen. The volume of targets should be high for Allen making him a valuable pick even in a tougher matchup. Devin's quarterback is Russell Wilson, who could be the MVP this season. Wilson will host the Rams this week and the matchup could yield a back and forth game script, which heavily favors Wilson. In a week with several tough teams, Devin appears to be in the mix for the Top spot. 

devin ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
The sixth position is always tough if you load up at one position as the wait for the next 10 picks at times can be absolutely brutal. When I am picking 6th, I typically like to just to see how the draft comes to me and then I will either differentiate myself if there have been five running backs taken by going the top two wide receivers on the board, or what I will do is evaluate whether there are two players who are significantly better than what will be left on the board when it gets back to me. For example, this week, I felt there were up to six elite running backs and two elite wide receivers. So being able to get two of those 8 players was great. The reason I took Allen at 2.01 is that I feel Allen and Antonio Brown are in their own tier this week and therefore wanted to get exposure to that top tier. 

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?  
Kenyan Drake was a huge risk taking him in the first round, but I fully believe in his ability and his usage in a perfect matchup going up against a Buffalo run defense that has been one of the worst in the NFL. Drake’s usage through catching the ball and getting upwards of 20 carries could be a player that has a monster game this week and throughout the rest of the season as he has a skillset that fits his role tremendously. 

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Josh Gordon in the fourth was crazy value. Baltimore is a scary matchup at name value, but Jimmy Smith the top corner on the Ravens is suspended which we all saw how this defense played last week against Pittsburgh when they allowed over 500 yards passing. Gordon has shown glimpses that a breakout is coming and going up against a secondary that is without their top guy, this could be the week. 

4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
I’m pretty surprised that Brandin Cooks was not taken. I get that he has been awful over the last two game, but this is a game in which should be an absolute shootout and the upside of Cooks is as high as any receiver not named Keenan Allen or Antonio Brown. He is definitely a player I am targeting in 10 mans and seriously considered taking Cooks over Josh Gordon this week. 

PROJECTIONS PREDICT THE WINNER

 

 

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