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Footballguys Staff 6-man DRAFT mock - Week 12

An evaluation of a 6-man mock FantasyDraft for Week 12. Each participant answers questions about their strategy and picks. 

Six Footballguys staff completed a 6-man Week 12 mock draft using the DRAFT scoring format below. Each participant must fill a roster with exactly these five positions: QB-RB-RB-WR/TE-WR/TE using a serpentine draft style. 

OFFICIAL DRAFT SCORING FORMAT

Passing Yard 0.04
Passing TD 4
Interception Thrown -1
Reception 0.5
Rushing Yard 0.1
Rushing TD 6
Receiving Yard 0.1
Receiving TD 6
Return TD 6
2-Point Conversion 2
Fumble Lost -2

THE PARTICIPANTS FOR THE WEEK 8 DRAFT:

1.01 Sean Settle
1.02 James Brimacombe
1.03 Keith Roberts
1.04 Justin Howe
1.05 Dan Hindery
1.06 Devin Knotts

DRAFT RESULTS

DRAFT EVALUATION

Sean Settle - SLOT 1

Overview - I like Sean's approach of going for the top player available at each pick. I don't feel like he reached for any player and overall, I like his team. Le'Veon Bell, Michael Thomas and Tom Brady all have good matchups and could be the top players at each position this week. Bell has not scored a touchdown in the last two games, but Green Bay has allowed a rushing touchdown in five of their last seven games. Michael Thomas has 7+ catches or 90 yards in seven of the last eight games and remains a top option for Drew Brees. The Rams have allowed a touchdown to a wide receiver in each of the last three games. Mike Evans has struggled lately, which is likely the reason for his drop into the late fourth round. Evans has three touchdowns in the last two contests against the Falcons, so perhaps a rebound is in store for him this week. Lamar Miller is a not a bad selection as the 10th running back off the board. Houston is thin at running back, which should result in a high number of touches for Miller. The Ravens present a tough matchup but the volume should be there for Miller. This team has the talent to make a run at first or second place. 

Sean ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
The player pool is a bit limited this week with all three Thursday games being excluded from the draft. As a result, I wanted to take the best player available with each pick and not necessarily focus on making sure I had two running backs in the first three picks. I wanted to secure a top quarterback this week so I elected to draft Tom Brady as the first pick off the board in round three. I wasn't going to choose again until the end of round four, so I bit the bullet and started the inevitable third round run on quarterbacks. I was lucky to get Mike Evans at the end of the fourth. He has struggled recently, but his pedigree is too good to leave on the board. If Evans has a big game, even without a score, it will go a long way to helping me finish on top. 

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?  
It's either Mike Evans or Lamar Miller. Both should be a big piece to their respective offenses, but if one or both can find the end zone, it may be the reason why I finish on top this week. If both struggle to get any production this week, I will likely finish on the outside looking in. The way I tend to draft (taking a quarterback higher than others) it's always the last two picks that are the biggest wildcards. If I can get decent value from them, I like my chances of coming out on top. 

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Mike Evans at the end of round four. It's no secret, Evans has not played up to his potential this year, but he's stil 19th overall among fantasy wide receivers and he's leading the Buccaneers in targets, receptions, receiving yards and tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns with four. Evans is a top flight receiver and to get him as the 7th receiver off the board is good value. 

4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why? 
There's a few options here. Tyreek Hill wasn't selected and neither was Michael Crabtree, Amari Cooper or Demaryius Thomas. Jarvis Landry is another player not selected, with a good matchup (at New England) and recent string of big games. Landry has scored in six of the last seven games with at least five receptions in each of those games. He's being overlooked each week and it's puzzling as to why. Some running backs that could surprise include DeMarco Murray at Indianapolis and Tevin Coleman at home against Tampa Bay. Devonta Freeman looks to be out once again and Coleman will have the opportunity to be the Falcons top back. Nobody selected Zach Ertz either. He could be a common target for Carson Wentz this week. There's a chance he outscores some players that were drafted. Ertz hasn't been as dominant since his hamstring injury, but each week after his return should be better. He has the talent, opportunity and quarterback to be a big contributor every week and this matchup against Chicago is a favorable one. 

james brimacombe - SLOT 2

Overview: James stayed true to the rankings and projections this week, taking players at value with each pick. There is no shortage of talent on his team and I like the late pick of DeAndre Hopkins in round four. I can understand the hesitancy of selecting Hopkins due to the quarterback situation in Houston since Deshaun Watson's injury, but Hopkins has answered the bell with a touchdown or 100 yards receiving in each of the three games started by Tom Savage. Cam Newton and the Panthers ground game has been on fire lately, but I foresee a challenge this week at the Jets. If Newton can rise to the occasion once again and include some touchdown passes along with a strong rushing game, James' team could wind up in the Top 2 this week. Don't sleep on Carlos Hyde this week. He had 124 yards rushing against Seattle in Week 2, on the road. He also has at least 4 receptions in six of ten games this year. I can see Hyde being a high volume option for the 49ers in what could looks to be a script that favors the passing game.

James ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
This week I kept it simple and was just going to go RB/RB in rounds 1 and 2 and follow it up with WR/WR in rounds 3 and 4 and wait for quarterback with my last pick and I kept to that strategy. I tried to keep it in line to what I like to do on a week to week basis and go with high volume players and that is just what I did with Todd Gurley and Carlos Hyde at running back and Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins at wide receiver.

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?  
DeAndre Hopkins is my make or break player this week. The reason is that his volume of targets is crazy at 11.5 per game with an average statline of 6.2/87.9/0.9 but he does face a tough matchup against the Ravens who are the second toughest defense against opposing wide receivers. The Ravens have only allowed five touchdowns to wide receivers this year (Rishard Matthews, Eric Decker, Michael Crabtree, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Allen Hurns), so for Hopkins to find the endzone he is going to have to see a heavy dose of targets. An argument can be made that Hopkins is a downgrade with Tom Savage at quarterback but he still has 17 receptions, 273 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns in the three games with Savage. 

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I really like Cam Newton in the fifth round. In this DRAFT format, I think you can look for weeks where there are 6-top quarterback plays that are in a close projection range and just wait on the position until your last pick. Newton gets the Jets this week on the road in a game that a lot of people will avoid this week in the fantasy community. Newton is coming off a four-touchdown performance against the Dolphins back in week 10 and has had the Bye week to prepare and rest for this game. Even though I didn’t pair him with a receiver, he still has a big ceiling with his rushing ability.

4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
Tyreek Hill would probably be my pick here as the draft really went to script and not a lot of players fell out of the draft that were projected higher than who was already picked. Hill’s matchup against the Bills may not be the easiest but we have seen back to back big weeks from both Keenan Allen (12/159/2) and Michael Thomas (9/117/0).  

keith roberts - SLOT 3

Overview - Keith was the only drafter to go with a QB-WR stack. Keith elected to take the red hot Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin stack in rounds three and four. Wilson is the top scoring fantasy quarterback since Week 9 and he'll tee off against the 49ers and their struggling defense. Wilson has performed best when in close games or trailing. I don't envision that scenario against San Francisco, but the matchup is not one to ignore. Keith went against the grain selecting Antonio Brown in the first round, when all other picks were running back. Brown has dominated lately, making the pick warranted and likely expected. The likelihood of a team selecting Brown in the first round is high and Keith was the lucky recipient. His running backs are Christian McCaffrey and Dion Lewis. McCaffrey has performed well lately and remains a constant in Carolina's offense. Dion Lewis is a wildcard pick this week, but the matchup against Miami and Lewis' recent spike in carries (and receptions) is one to watch. The Patriots like to mix their running back snaps among three backs, but Lewis is playing well and has deserved the additional touches. I like Keith's team and think it could finish among the Top 2, especially if Lewis can reach pay dirt this week with a strong game.

keith ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
With the third pick, I had a pretty good idea I would get Antonio Brown coming into this draft. What I was hoping for, however, is that Mark Ingram II would fall back to me in the second round since I saw a steep drop-off after him. I was not thrilled with the choice of Christian McCaffrey, but he has back to back touchdowns and has been much more involved in that offense in recent weeks—so there is upside. I intentionally wanted to go after Russell Wilson here, and despite getting a little nervous when Tom Brady went off the board, I was glad to see Wilson still there for me to grab him in the third round. I like to swing for the fences with the stack, so I was pleased to get Doug Baldwin in the fifth round. And finally, I could not go without a piece of the Patriots this week and was very excited about the value I received from Dion Lewis

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?  
Antonio Brown will definitely make or break me here. I really handicapped myself at running back by taking Brown in the first round, so I need him to put up another big game like he did last week. Brown has an extremely favorable matchup this week against a Packers secondary that has been blasted on multiple occasions by opposing receivers this season. They have allowed five receivers to cross 100 yards this year, including big games to elite receivers like Julio Jones and A.J. Green. Brown will be matched up against Josh Hawkins for most of this game, and Hawkins is allowing over a third of the balls thrown his way to be caught this season. Brown is a risk since the Steelers very well could lean heavily on Le'Veon Bell if Clay Matthews is unable to suit up, but he has one of the highest ceilings in the league and can single-handedly win a draft with a huge game like last week. 

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I was very excited about getting Dion Lewis in the last round. Lewis has earned lead-back duties in New England as Mike Gillislee remains in the doghouse. Lewis has seen 10 or more rush attempts in his last five games and is averaging just under 60 yards per game over that stretch. While his yards have not been amazing, it is the usage and touchdown upside that I am looking for here. The Patriots own one of the highest expected team totals that I have seen in a while as Vegas has them scoring 32 points as 16-point favorites. If the Patriots jump out to a big lead early, there is a great chance that Lewis will be part of both gaining that lead and helping salt it away. This is the kind of week in which we could see him with a season-high in carries, and with his added upside in the passing game (four receptions for 28 yards and a touchdown last week), I am quite pleased with the selection as my last running back in the final round. 

4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
The one more player I would choose is actually Jimmy Graham to make my Seahawks stack into a super-stack. I chose Baldwin over Graham in the draft mainly for the big upside that Baldwin holds combined with being scared from Graham based on his one-yard outing against the 49ers earlier this season. I really struggled with that call though, as Graham has been a scoring machine over his last six games, hauling in eight touchdowns over that span. while his yardage totals are not huge, Wilson is definitely looking Graham's way into the end zone. Let Baldwin get them downfield with some big plays and Wilson toss to Graham for a few touchdowns, and this super-stack would be on its way to a big week against one of the league's worst passing defenses.

justin howe - SLOT 4

Overview - Alvin Kamara is no longer a second or third round sneak pick, like he was in weeks past. He's now a bona fide first round pick in this format, making his value slightly lower than it was before. Justin nabbed him as the third running back in the draft and I believe it's warranted. The pick of A.J. Green in round two may be a bit earlier than he'll go in other drafts, but the matchup against Cleveland adds to his value this week. In the first meeting against the Browns, Green had 5 receptions for 63 yards and a touchdown. Cleveland has allowed only two touchdowns to wide receivers in the last four games, but if anyone is going to score for Cincinnati, it's probably going to be Green who has 6 of Andy Dalton's 16 touchdowns. Justin selected Carson Wentz as the third quarterback off the board (all three from the third round) and no team is hotter than the Eagles right now. Chicago presents a challenge for the Eagles passing offense, but their best effort may not be enough to slow down the soaring Eagles. Justin's final pick of Jordan Howard (against Philadelphia) may wind up being a bad decision, but one score amidst an average yardage day could catapult Justin into a top finish this week.  

justin ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I always open a DRAFT by going RB-RB, unless there's a massive drop-off or opportunity for value in play, and that's what happened here. The sure-thing RB dominators of both volume and game script were gone, and I had the next 5-7 backs in roughly the same group, allowing me to wait at RB2 (which paid off handsomely I'd say). As a result, I successfully locked in the week's No. 2 wideout play (A.J. Green) and landed a RB2 of the same quality as the current tier. I also de-prioritize QB-WR stacking, which I typically follow faithfully as well. Carson Wentz was in my eyes the right QB call at the right time, and the value just didn't present itself to take a stab at Alshon Jeffery or Zach Ertz. I'm more than satisfied with Rob Gronkowski's upside.

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Obviously, when you make a timeshare RB your first pick, you're laying some certainty and floor on the line. Alvin Kamara is not even his own team's lead back, and I left 3-4 names on the table that boast mid-level projections at or above 20 touches. But he's close to a lead back, taking 17 opportunities (carries plus targets) in each of the last 3 games and averaging 15.6 over the last 5. He's not dependent upon game script, and as one of the league's most eruptive and dynamic backs, his weekly floor and ceiling are both maximized. As a prominent part of both the Saints' running and passing games, Kamara actually looks a little more insulated from a do-nothing day than Mark Ingram II, who's caught just four passes over the last three weeks and whom I left on the board. I prefer Kamara by a decent margin for Week 12.

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Jordan Howard was very much the forgotten man in this DRAFT. In fact, after I passed on him for A.J. Green in Round 2, I didn't expect to have a chance at him; I assumed one of the other two DRAFTers without a RB2 would snap him up. I fully understand the cases for Christian McCaffrey and Carlos Hyde, but I prefer Howard widely over both Lamar Miller and Dion Lewis, who went right before me in Round 5. Howard's a little risky, and he doesn't catch passes, but that's fine with me. To walk away from my final pick with a RB2 that dominates his backfield, averaging 21.5 opportunities per week, is the definition of value.


4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
Tevin Coleman would've been my pick had Howard gone before me instead of Lewis. There's still a decent chance Devonta Freeman sits Week 12 with his second concussion of the year, and even in a timeshare Coleman boasts value. He's a multi-faceted contributor who works on the goal line, and we've seen that he's always an option to take the lead role from Freeman mid-game; the Falcons run a hot-hand rotation of the two. I also would've considered Tyreek Hill in a likely shootout with the Bills. Neither Buffalo nor Kansas City has played much defense of late,and that game has sneaky potential for a 27-24 vibe, well beyond the 46-point Vegas projection. And it would be all but impossible for Kansas City to score that well without Hill finding the end zone.

Dan hindery - SLOT 5

Overview - I don't see a weak team in the group this week and the Top 2 teams could come down to a few points. Dan was fortunate to pick two elite running backs in the first and second round, which is difficult to do. Leonard Fournette in round one and Mark Ingram II in round two. Both are capable of carrying this team, but if both produce big games, it will make it tough to beat Dan. Both Brandin Cooks and Travis Kelce have been top performers lately and they each have favorable matchups. As long as Chris Hogan is still out, Cooks remains a top fantasy play each week. Dan's selection of Drew Brees at the end of the draft may be the best value of the entire draft. If New Orleans can get into a back and forth battle with offensive-minded Los Angeles, Brees could be the player who tips the scale in favor of Dan winning it all this week. Keep in mind, he also has Ingram. A Brees to Ingram score (or two) might be too much for other teams to overcome. 

dan ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I was hoping to land Antonio Brown at 1.05 and a top running back at 2.02. Brown should have a big week and is the one wide receiver I am willing to reach for over one of the top running backs. When Brown went at 1.03, it was an easy choice to go back-to-back running backs. I feel like there is a tier break after the top-7 running backs, so it was nice to get two of the top options in Leonard Fournette and Mark Ingram II

This is one of the deepest weeks of the season at quarterback and I don’t see huge separation at the position. For me, it’s an easy choice to wait until the final round and take whichever top quarterback option is still available. It ended up being Drew Brees still there for me at 5.05 but even if Brees had gone earlier, there would have been another attractive option still on the board late.

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?  
Mark Ingram II is my key guy. He has shown huge upside (8 touchdowns in the 6 games since the Adrian Peterson trade) but also comes with some extra risk due to splitting time with Alvin Kamara. While both backs have been fantasy stars in recent weeks, a road matchup against a very good Los Angeles Rams defense (5th in defensive DVOA) could mean at least one of the two Saints backs disappoints this week. If Ingram can fine the end zone at least once, it would be a big boost to my chances.

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I could make the case for Brees at 5.05 or Ingram at 2.02 but Brandin Cooks at 3.05 was my favorite pick. Cooks absolutely destroyed the Oakland Raiders 32nd-ranked (DVOA) pass defense last week for 149 yards and 1 touchdown. He gets the Miami Dolphins 31st-ranked pass defense this week and has a good chance to put together another big fantasy performance. Cooks has huge upside because he’s a deep-ball specialist and Tom Brady has targeted him deep with regularity lately. One long touchdown from Cooks can make your week. His floor is also higher than many may think with Chris Hogan out of the lineup. Cooks is averaging 9.3 targets per game since Hogan injured his shoulder and has seen at least 8 targets in every game over that stretch. 

4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
I mentioned above that my Plan A coming into the draft was to take Antonio Brown at 1.05 and wait to take my RB2 until late. My RB2 target if I'd have been able to get Brown was Tevin Coleman. We drafted (and I’m writing this) on Tuesday night. We won’t get a substantive update on Devonta Freeman until Wednesday but my gut feel is that Freeman will probably miss another week as he recovers from his second concussion since August. If Freeman is out again, Coleman vaults up near the top of the running back rankings in a great matchup at home against Tampa Bay. The pick would have been risky but worth rolling the dice on late in a 6-Team Draft, especially because Coleman will have a decent role even if Freeman does play so it’s not an all-or-nothing play. 

devin knotts - SLOT 6

Overview - Devin has solid players at every position and all have a good matchup this week or a ton of expected volume. LeSean McCoy has been the face of the Bills offense, even in their downward spiral the last few games. This matchup at Kansas City isn't the best rushing matchup this week, but there will be plenty of volume for him to make plays and get a score. Devin will also have Kareem Hunt in the opposite side of this battle. Hunt has not scored since Week 3 and teams have learned how to defend the Chiefs run game. Having said that, Buffalo is reeling on defense lately, especially the run defense. They have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns in the last four games. Ten! There is no excuse for Hunt and Kansas City if they can't take advantage of this opportunity. A strong game from Hunt will elevate Devin into contention this week. Alshon Jeffery and T.Y. Hilton both have good matchups against Chicago and Tennesee respectively. One or both could finish the week with 80 yards and a score. Matt Ryan was the last pick in the draft and will face a Tampa Bay team that has been known to give up big plays. Ryan has thrown two touchdown passes in each of the last four games and should be an adequate quarterback play this week. 

devin ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
My strategy this week was that I was extremely fortunate to have the #6 and #7 picks. The reason that I say that is there are seven running backs that I think are worth playing this week and then there is a severe drop off so to be able to get two of these players was an extreme value. This worked out extremely well as I was able to get two of my top 4 running backs this week in LeSean McCoy and Kareem Hunt

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?  
Kareem Hunt will make or break me as he once again is in a terrific matchup, but he has not scored a touchdown in 7 weeks. To win a six man Draft contest, you need to have touchdown upside, so I need him to get back to where he was at earlier this season with scoring touchdowns. 

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Matt Ryan as the last pick in the draft. Are you kidding me? That was an absolute gift for Ryan to be the sixth quarterback off the board. Ryan has thrown for 2 touchdowns in each of his last four games and is going up against a Tampa Bay pass defense that have allowed 262 yards or more to Matt Moore, Case Keenum, Tyrod Taylor, Josh McCown, and Mike Glennon this season. This is not a defense to be afraid of and one that Ryan should be able to take advantage of. 

4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
Let’s go with Demaryius Thomas going against the putrid Oakland secondary. The last time Paxton Lynch was at quarterback Demaryius Thomas had a touchdown in both games and seven targets in each game averaging 70 yards in each game. He is in a very favorable matchup this week against Oakland as their secondary is an absolute trainwreck and Thomas should be able to take advantage of it.  

PROJECTIONS PREDICT THE WINNER

 

 

 

 

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