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Footballguys Staff 6-man DRAFT mock - Week 7

An evaluation of a 6-man mock FantasyDraft for Week 7. Each participant answers questions about their strategy and picks. 

Six Footballguys staff completed a 6-man Week 7 mock draft using the DRAFT scoring format below. Each particpant must fill a roster with exactly these five positions: QB-RB-RB-WR/TE-WR/TE using a serpentine draft style. 

OFFICIAL DRAFT SCORING FORMAT

Passing Yard 0.04
Passing TD 4
Interception Thrown -1
Reception 0.5
Rushing Yard 0.1
Rushing TD 6
Receiving Yard 0.1
Receiving TD 6
Return TD 6
2-Point Conversion 2
Fumble Lost -2

THE PARTICIPANTS FOR THE WEEK 7 DRAFT:

1.01 Jeff Haseley
1.02 Keith Roberts
1.03 Devin Knotts
1.04 Dan Hindery
1.05 Justin Howe
1.06 Sean Settle

DRAFT RESULTS

DRAFT EVALUATION

Jeff haseley - SLOT 1

Overview - I tried to target players with either a good matchup or a game that is expected to be high scoring. For the most part I accomplished that. I elected to choose Matt Ryan over Tom Brady because of the matchup factor. New England has been a welcome sign to opposing quarterbacks this year, allowing a 300 yard passer in EVERY game this year while giving up 2.3 touchdown passes per game. Le'Veon Bell was my first overall pick for good reason. He is finally playing well after a lackluster first few games. His floor is still decent and his celing is the sky. Passing on Bell would've been a mistake. In order for me to win, Adrian Peterson and Chris Hogan will need to produce. Hogan has four games with a Top 12 ranking and he leads the team with 5 receiving touchdowns. Peterson is coming off a 26-carry, 132 yard performance with two touchdowns. This week he'll face the Rams who have given up the second most fantasy points to running backs this year. Selecting Peterson is a risk, but the matchup defends and justifies the pick. Zach Ertz may be a questionable pick for some, but he has been a consistent scorer this season finishing in the Top 10 in all six games. 

jeff ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
My strategy was to load up on Patriots and Falcons players, because I think this game in Foxborough has the potential to produce a lot of points. I wanted to select Devonta Freeman #1 overall, but ultimately decided to go with Le'Veon Bell in hopes that I could get Freeman and Tom Brady or Matt Ryan at the turn of round 2 and 3. I wound up with Matt Ryan (passed on Brady) and Adrian Peterson. Ryan will face a Patriots team that is giving up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, so I'm OK with that decision. Peterson will face the Rams who are allowing the second most fantasy points to running backs. I wanted to wait on both of my receivers so I could get Chris Hogan and Zach Ertz at the next turn. Hogan has four games this year where he finished inside the Top 15 and Zach Ertz has finished in the Top 10 all six games. I'll take that everytime. I was able to get both at the 4-5 turn. 

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
It has to be Adrian Peterson. I passed on Melvin Gordon III to select Peterson and his cushy matchup this week. That decision may wind up costing me dearly, but Arizona looked like a different offense against Tampa Bay with Peterson moving the chains. We'll see how they do on the road at Los Angeles, but Peterson looked strong averaging 5.1 yards per carry on 26 carries with two rushing touchdowns in his debut with Arizona. 

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Zach Ertz was my last pick at 5.01. He has been a consistent threat all season and this week he faces a Washington team who has struggled against tight ends. In Week 1, Ertz collected 8 receptions for 93 yards against the same Washington team who will be without Josh Norman this time around. As previously mentioned, Ertz has finished in the Top 10 every game this season. 

4. Who is the team to beat this week?
Keith, Dan and Devin have strong teams this week. Either one is capable of winning. Tom Brady has been in a mini-slump lately, failing to surpass two touchdown passes in each of the last three games. Atlanta has quietly allowed only 7 touchdown passes in six games. Take that for what it's worth, but having said that, I'll go with Devin's team that includes 14 touchdowns from his running backs, Julio Jones and Drew Brees. That's going to be a tough lineup to stop. 

keith roberts - SLOT 2

Overview: Keith drafted solid players with each pick and may wind up on top when it's all said and done. Tom Brady and Antonio Brown will anchor this team. Both are capable of putting up draft-winning point totals on their own. A.J. Green can produce big points as well and he'll be a nice complement to Brown, especially if the game script favors the passing game. Jordan Howard and Carlos Hyde have a combined 8 touchdowns between them, which is outstanding value for his last two picks in the draft. The more I look at this team, the more I like it. It is definitely one of the top contenders this week. 

keith ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
My strategy going into this draft with the #2 pick was to take either Le'Veon Bell or Antonio Brown, then the next best running back on the board followed by one of the top quarterbacks of the week. However, I did not predict that seven running backs in a row would fall off the board after my pick of Brown. At that point, I thought to myself—why not take my top two ranked receivers of the week (Brown + Green), then wait on running back since only two more backs will be taken? This was very much a value-based strategy that developed in the middle of the draft. My approach here went against the grain from what you would normally see—as people hardly ever wait on running backs in this format. However, the running back position is extremely deep this week, which allowed me to find the value I was looking for in both Carlos Hyde and Jordan Howard. With what I think are the top two receivers and #1 quarterback of the week, I really like my chances. 

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?  
I need my studs to perform this week based on the draft strategy I employed. I took a big risk waiting for running back, so both Antonio Brown and AJ Green must pay off. Antonio Brown has one of the highest ceilings on a weekly basis, regardless of matchup. He has gained over 150 yards in half of his games this season, leading the league by a wide margin in receiving yards with 700 total—good for an average of nearly 117 yards per game. AJ Green is right behind Brown in those receiving yard rankings with 504 on the season. Green has a touchdown in each of his last three games and is coming off a 189-yard explosion in Week 5 before the Bengals’ bye week. With these two dynamic receivers facing each other in the same game, my team will truly have boom or bust potential based solely on how that game plays out. 

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
While I love the value I received on my two late running back picks, the value that has me most excited is actually Tom Brady. The Patriots have the highest implied team total of the week as they are in a matchup with the Falcons at home sporting a whopping 56-point over/under. Tom Brady is another high floor/ceiling play and has one of the best matchups of the week in what could be an absolute shoot-out. While the Falcons defense has been decent this season, they still may be without their best pass-rusher in Vic Beasley. Desmond Trufant has played well, but they have a big weak spot on the other side with Robert Alford at Cornerback—matchup that Tom Brady should easily be able to exploit. 

4. Who is the team to beat this week? 
Jeff has put together a very solid squad this week picking from the #1 spot. If my team cannot take it down this week, Jeff’s should be the one to do it as Le'Veon Bell could easily find the end zone multiple times against the Bengals. While I do like Tom Brady, Matt Ryan has an even better matchup on paper despite his inconsistent play this season. Adrian Peterson logged huge numbers last week and now faces a Rams defense that has allowed nine touchdowns to running backs this season. Chris Hogan should draw my aforementioned juicy matchup with Falcons cornerback Robert Alford, while Zach Ertz has been an absolute monster in PPR formats this season and is playing a Redskins defense allowing the third most fantasy points (PPR) per game to opposing tight ends. 

Devin knotts - SLOT 3

Overview - Several teams drafted well this week and this is one of them. Devin's combination at running back (Leonard Fournette and Melvin Gordon III) has 14 total touchdowns between them and will likely be the anchor of his team. Drew Brees at Green Bay is a favorable matchup that could result in a game that includes 3 or more touchdown passes. Doug Baldwin has only one touchdown this year, but the strength of the rest of Devin's team may be enough to carry a bad or average game from Baldwin. If Devin can get high production from three of his players it might be enough to finish first. 

devin ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
My original strategy was to go running back running back to start the draft and I started strong with Leonard Fournette who is in a good spot this weekend and is turning into one of the most consistent running backs in football this season. However, once the next six picks were running backs, I decided to deviate from my plan and go with a wide receiver. This ended up working out as I got ahead of the wide receiver run and got the receiver I wanted in Julio Jones and I ended up getting the running back I would have taken anyway in Melvin Gordon III

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?  
Julio Jones is off to a slow start this season as he still does not have a touchdown, and has only one game in which he surpassed 100 yards. However, he has an ideal matchup this week against the New England Patriots in which he should be able to have a tremendous game. Taking him as the second wide receiver was a little bit risky but in a six-team draft you have to take some risks to win. 

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Melvin Gordon III going up against Denver as my best value. Gordon struggled in the season opener against Denver, but was used heavily in the passing game which I expect that he will be once again. Last week, Gordon had 9 receptions which is tremendous upside in both the passing and rushing game and to get him as the 10th running back off the board is terrific value.

4. Who is the team to beat this week? 
Keith’s first three picks are scary good as he was able to start with Antonio Brown, A.J. Green and Tom Brady. Those three could win him the week, but he needs all three of them to go off as taking Carlos Hyde against Dallas and then Jordan Howard in a tough matchup against Carolina is going to make it difficult. Therefore, I will have to go with Dan’s team as the team to beat as getting LeSean McCoy in the second round against a Tampa Bay defense that was eviscerated by Adrian Peterson should have tremendous upside this week. Dan was then able to compliment Elliott and McCoy with Michael Thomas and Rob Gronkowski honestly which were both value picks at where they were selected. 

dan hindery - SLOT 4

Overview - This is another strong team with several players capable of scoring 20 points. Ezekiel Elliott and LeSean McCoy have favorable matchups against San Francisco and Tampa Bay. Michael Thomas should rebound after a rough week of tight coverage against Detroit and Rob Gronkowski against Atlanta figures to be productive. Dan waited until round 5 to select Kirk Cousins as his quarterback. Cousins is coming off 8 total touchdowns and 1 interception in the last three games with two 300-yard games. Like all weeks, the winner will come down to who produces on game day. A strong lineup won't mean anything if one or more players don't come through. 

dan ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you? 
I was hoping to get one of the top three backs at 1.04. When Antonio Brown went at 1.02, I knew Leonard Fournette or Ezekiel Elliott would fall to me. I love Elliott this week in a matchup against the San Francisco defense which has given up over 28 Draft points to opposing backs each of the past two weeks.  I was planning on going wide receiver in the second round and strongly considered A.J. Green. However, with the run on running backs, I was pleased to see that LeSean McCoy was still on the board and decided to take a chance that there would still be some solid wide receiver options available in the next two rounds. I feel good about landing both Michael Thomas and Rob Gronkowski where I did. It is an easy decision to wait at quarterback this week with a number of top-10 fantasy quarterbacks facing favorable matchups. My final round pick, Kirk Cousins, has averaged over 25 Draft points per game over the last three weeks and faces a Philadelphia defense that is allowing the fourth most passing yards against on the season. 

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?  
Kirk Cousins is probably my most pivotal player. It is a great week for quarterback matchups and a few of these passers are likely to go off for huge games. Cousins certainly has that potential this week against a Philadelphia pass defense that has been shaky in recent games. However, if he is has a poor fantasy outing, it will be tough to recover because the odds are that at least two of the other five passers will post 25+ points. 

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Rob Gronkowski at 4.03 was a very nice value. Over his last four games, Gronkowski has put together an average receiving line of 6-92-1 (18.2 points per game). In a Week 7 matchup against the Falcons which is expected to turn into a shootout, Gronkowski has the highest touchdown upside of any WR/TE on the board and a relatively high floor as well (he has at least 80 receiving yards in four straight games). 

4. Who is the team to beat this week? 
I love the way Keith’s team turned out. By waiting until the final two rounds to draft his running backs, he zigged while everyone else zagged. Most weeks, waiting at running back is a tough strategy to pull off. However, in Week 7 there is just enough depth at the running back position in 6-Team Drafts to attempt the strategy. It worked out especially well for Keith due to Carlos Hyde sliding. I have Hyde ranked as the #7 running back this week and being able to snag him at 4.05 was fantastic value. Waiting on running back allowed Keith to load up at the other positions. He drafted my top-ranked quarterback (Tom Brady) and my top two receivers (Antonio Brown and A.J. Green). 

justin howe - SLOT 5

Overview - There were only two teams who stacked a quarterback and wide receiver this week. Justin was one, matching Dak Prescott and Dez Bryant against the San Francisco 49ers defense who have allowed 6 touchdowns to wide receivers this year. Todd Gurley and Mark Ingram II are both solid options at running back. Gurley has cooled off since his extraordinary effort in Weeks 1-4, but he's still one to hold in high regard. Mark Ingram II is coming off a big week against Detroit. The trade of Adrian Peterson to Arizona opened up more involvement for Ingram and he came through in a big way. Demaryius Thomas is a great last pick at WR/TE, especially with Emmanuel Sanders out for a few weeks with a sprained ankle. 

justin ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
As always, I sought to compile two stud running backs, both capable of volume and touchdown opportunity. I was willing to modify that a bit this week, considering how deep the position is, but ultimately I stuck with the "spend for volume" stance. As a result, I landed two workhorses with solid outlooks for short-yardage opportunity, and I couldn't be happier. Both were solidly among the group I preferred over my top remaining receiver (A.J. Green). I again looked to build a stack at QB-WR, which is not an easy task on DRAFT. That seems especially true this week for Dak Prescott-Dez Bryant - I've struggled mightily to pair them in all of this week's DRAFTs - so I made sure to snap them up quickly. They're such popular Week 7 targets across the industry that DRAFTers will be foaming at the mouth to snap them up salary-free.

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you? 
Mark Ingram II will probably tell the tale here. I feel confident in projecting the floors for the rest of my team, but despite his Week 6 eruption, Ingram remains a bit of a wild card. We don't know from one week to the next whether Ingram will be used to wear down defenses or passing-down stud Alvin Kamara will lead the way. But I took a shot on upside here, opting for Ingram with my second pick over the likes of LeSean McCoy and Melvin Gordon III. I'm banking on pace and touchdown opportunity here; if the Saints-Packers matchup is a scoring affair, it'll be hard for Ingram not to post numbers, even if Kamara sees equal time.

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Demaryius Thomas looks like such a strong value pick this week. Few teams' passing attacks are as concentrated across 2 names as the Broncos', which has sent 49% of its targets to Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. That gives Thomas a stout weekly floor, and with Sanders out for Week 7, it creates a prolific ceiling as well. Thomas will almost surely see at least 8-9 targets, and it would be no surprise to see him draw 12+ without Sanders, so I'm expecting gobs and gobs of value from this pick. Thomas' touchdown-less start to to 2017 should be threatened by his massive opportunity against the Chargers.

4. Who is the team to beat this week? 
No one sports more upside than Dan, and I think he takes this week outright. He opened with as strong of a 1-2 RB punch as one can wrangle, pairing great matchups with strong pace-ups. He then added Michael Thomas, who left a bad taste in DFS mouths last week but remains a high-flying option for Week 7. Thomas' stat line suffered largely from Darius Slay's coverage, and the Packers' cornerback room is in sorry shape; opposing receivers are churning out production against them. And Rob Gronkowski is too dynamic, especially in a 56-point (!!) Vegas game, to last until the fourth round

sean settle - SLOT 6

Overview - Sean's strength is at wide receiver (Mike Evans and Larry Fitzgerald) and his first running back, Devonta Freeman. I think he could've gone a different direction with his second running back selection, Jay Ajayi. Miami is the only team in the league who has not scored a rushing touchdown and the Jets have allowed only one rushing touchdown since Week 2. Carson Palmer is coming off a big game last week, but I'm not sold on him being a consistent producer, especially not on the road. I know why he selected Palmer - to have a stack with Fitzgerald and reap the benefits. A better pick in my opinion would've been Carson Wentz. In a week with several strong teams, Sean will need to have his horses come up big, especially the Cardinals stack, in order to compete. 

sean ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
My draft strategy this week was to go heavy in on the Dallas/San Francisco game. Unfortunately, none of that worked out as I had picks sniped right before it was my turn. I had hoped to take Ezekiel Elliot but knew there was no way he would slip all the way through and settled for Ajayi against a porous Jets rush defense and Devonta Freeman against New England’s 32 ranked defense. Both of these picks are based on the defenses they are facing as well as the breakout performance by Ajayi last week. After missing on Elliot, the plan was to stack Dez Bryant and Dak Prescott only to see Justin do that one pick ahead of me. I settled for Larry Fitzgerald and Mike Evans. I was not a huge fan of Evans’ matchup but could not argue with a top receiver falling to the fifth round. Finally, I was targeting Drew Brees until he was taken by Devin and ended up settling for a Palmer/Fitzgerald stack. My draft plan did not work out at all and I had to quickly adjust based on rankings and matchups.

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?  
Devonta Freeman is going to make or break this week. He has been a consistent performer all season but has not had a breakout game yet. He easily has the best matchup against New England and the potential for a very high scoring game. The biggest issue is he has so much competition in the Falcon’s offense. Tevin Coleman could easily vulture a touchdown or Julio Jones could finally find the end zone. Freeman will make or break my team this week.

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Mike Evans in the fifth round has to be the best value. He fell mostly due to his matchup and the uncertainty at quarterback in Tampa. No matter who is throwing the ball, Evans should get his targets and if the defense keeps giving up points at this rate they will have to throw the ball a lot on Sunday. He was the 5th rated wide receiver in our expert’s rankings and I was able to get him in the second to last round.

4. Who is the team to beat this week?
This week it looks like Justin has the team to beat. He was the one who sniped my Dak/Dez stack against the 49ers and pairs that with Mark Ingram II and Todd Gurley who are both coming off monster weeks. Devin would be a close second but I am not a huge fan of the Baldwin pick against the Giants. Justin has the potential to put up more points than anyone else if Dallas scores a lot of points against San Francisco. 

PROJECTIONS PREDICT THE WINNER

Projected Finish Total
Dan 81.2
Keith 80.4
Devin 77.9
Justin 77.6
Jeff 74.2
Sean 72.7
Draft Participant Player Projected Score

Jeff

Le'Veon Bell vs CIN 19.1
Matt Ryan at NE 19.0
Adrian Peterson at LAR 12.2
Chris Hogan vs ATL 10.9
Zach Ertz vs WAS 13.0
Total   74.2

Keith

Antonio Brown vs CIN 16.8
A.J. Green at PIT 15.3
Tom Brady vs ATL 20.6
Carlos Hyde vs DAL 14.5
Jordan Howard vs CAR 13.2
Total   80.4

Devin

Leonard Fournette at IND 16.6
Julio Jones at NE 15.7
Melvin Gordon III vs DEN 15.9
Drew Brees at GB 18.5
Doug Baldwin at NYG 11.2
Total   77.9

Dan

Ezekiel Elliott at SF 17.0
LeSean McCoy vs TB 17.6
Michael Thomas at GB 13.5
Rob Gronkowski vs ATL 14.7
Kirk Cousins at PHI 18.4
Total   81.2

Justin

Todd Gurley vs ARI 17.3
Mark Ingram II at GB 15.5
Dez Bryant at SF 12.5
Dak Prescott at SF 19.8
Demaryius Thomas at LAC 12.5
Total   77.6

Sean

Devonta Freeman at NE 15.4
Jay Ajayi vs NYJ 13.9
Mike Evans at BUF 13.4
Larry Fitzgerald at LAR 13.1
Carson Palmer at LAR 16.9
Total   72.7

 

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com