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Footballguys Staff 6-man DRAFT mock - Week 6

An evaluation of a 6-man mock FantasyDraft for Week 6. Each participant answers questions about their strategy and picks. 

Six Footballguys staff completed a 6-man Week 6 mock draft using the DRAFT scoring format below. Each particpant must fill a roster with exactly these five positions: QB-RB-RB-WR/TE-WR/TE using a serpentine draft style. 

OFFICIAL DRAFT SCORING FORMAT

Passing Yard 0.04
Passing TD 4
Interception Thrown -1
Reception 0.5
Rushing Yard 0.1
Rushing TD 6
Receiving Yard 0.1
Receiving TD 6
Return TD 6
2-Point Conversion 2
Fumble Lost -2

THE PARTICIPANTS FOR THE WEEK 6 DRAFT:

1.01 Keith Roberts
1.02 Devin Knotts
1.03 Dan Hindery
1.04 Justin Howe
1.05 Sean Settle
1.06 James Brimacombe

DRAFT RESULTS

DRAFT EVALUATION

keith roberts - SLOT 1

Overview - The number one slot can often be an advantage in this DRAFT format, however James Brimacombe owned the Week 5 draft from the 5-slot last week. Keith selected Le'Veon Bell with the top pick. As good as Bell is, I don't like picking him this high. Not on the road at Kansas City. Bell struggled to get traction at home last week against Jacksonville, now he's entering Kansas City who is in the Top 6 in running back points against in this format. Pittsburgh is trending in the opposite direction and this is a tough matchup for them this week. C.J. Anderson and T.Y. Hilton are good picks with good, if not great matchups this week vs NY Giants and at Tennessee respectively. The stack of Jameis Winston and Mike Evans looks good on paper, but the preferred stack may have been DeSean Jackson, not Evans, who will likely be shadowed by Patrick Peterson all game long. Few cornerbacks shadow a player, but Peterson is one of those few. I could be wrong about this team, but I think there's too many challenges to overcome to be in the winner circle this week. 

keith ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
My strategy was to lock up running backs early, as I was not comfortable with the drop off coming in this week. After finding out I had the first pick, this strategy was made relatively easy as I knew I would get a top-tier option—however, it then meant I would have to drop down for my next running back pick. I had no problem with taking CJ Anderson there, as he has a prime game script for any running back as the Broncos are one of the heaviest favorites of the week. I grabbed a couple wide receivers, then intentionally waited to take a quarterback last as there was plenty of depth out there to pick from this week with no clear standout option at the top.

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Jameis Winston will be my make or break pick this week. Winston is up against a very overrated Cardinals secondary that is allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. This secondary looked great against bad offenses (49ers, Colts), but they have been gashed by offenses with a decent quarterback (Cowboys, Lions, Eagles). In those three games, the Cardinals have allowed all 10 of their passing touchdowns and a total of 779 passing yards. Winston has passed for over 325 yards in each of his last three games, and he now has Doug Martin back to garner some additional attention of opposing defenses and open things up for him downfield. Considering my risky stack of Winston with Evans, I really need Winston to exploit this Cardinals defense for a fourth straight 300+ yard game (with a least a third of those yards heading Evans’ way!).

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I fully realize that Mike Evans is not in a great matchup against Patrick Peterson this week. However, I simply could not pass up on the value of getting a guy like Evans as the ninth receiver off the board. Evans has faced a number of solid cornerbacks this season though, and he has still hauled in five or more receptions in each game with a couple touchdowns while averaging nearly 70 yards per game. I obviously like Jameis Winston this week, as stated above, due to this overrated Cardinals secondary. Evans ranks eighth among wide receivers with 10 targets per game, so it is clear that Winston will still force feed Evans even in difficult matchups.

4. Who is the team to beat this week?
I am really liking Justin Howe’s team this week. Leonard Fournette was a guy I almost took with the first overall pick as he is in a great spot this week against a Rams defense that has allowed the almost 120 rushing yards per game this season. Fournette is the center of that Jaguars offense, and in what looks to be a tight game, he will be heavily relied upon as the Jaguars try to keep it close. Justin’s choice of taking Rodgers and pairing him with Devante Adams as the next to last receiver off the board was great as well. With Jordy Nelson’s health in question, along with his likely matchup against Xavier Rhodes, Adams is a guy who could have some big upside here as he looks to draw a favorable matchup against Trae Waynes—one of the worst cornerbacks in the league so far this season. Mark Ingram II is another guy on this team who could have a huge week given the seemingly renewed faith in his abilities as we saw the Saints let go of Adrian Peterson. Ingram has 16 and 18 touches in his last two games, and he has missed out on anywhere from six to 16 snaps per game with Peterson on the field instead this season. Not to mention, Ingram is a key piece in this game sporting the highest over/under of the week.

Devin knotts - SLOT 2

Overview: Devin has two stalwarts in Kareem Hunt and Julio Jones (his first two picks) and then some decent, serviceable picks to round out the draft. Jordan Howard has been good, but not great lately and the Bears offense has struggled to find a rhythm. I can see their visit to Baltimore this week being potentially problematic. If Howard can get into the end zone (he's done so in 3 of 5 games), it will make this pick worthwhile. DeSean Jackson is on the verge of being a reliable fantasy receiver. He has a great matchup this week going up against Cardinals cornerback Justin Bethel. As mentioned in Keith's overview, Patrick Peterson figures to cover Mike Evans, leaving Jackson on Bethel. I expect at least one long gain in this matchup and potentially a score. Matthew Stafford is nursing a sore hamstring and ankle, but he's expected to play. The Lions offensive line has allowed six sacks in each of the last two games. Conversely, New Orleans has four sacks in each of their last two games. This looks to favor the Saints defensive line, which isn't good news for Detroit. Add a gimpy Stafford and this could swing in the Saints direction even more. 

devin ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
Heading into this week when I saw that I had the number two pick, I was immediately hoping that one of the top six running backs would somehow make it back to me in the second round. Since that did not occur, I got very lucky that Julio Jones was still available in the second round due to Dan taking Lamar Miller. Jones is my number one overall wide receiver this week in a very good matchup going up against the Dolphins. At the end of the draft, I knew I wanted to wait on quarterback as I typically will do especially when I can get a quarterback like Matthew Stafford who is facing New Orleans. 

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?  
DeSean Jackson will make or break me this week and I knew it as soon as I made the pick. Mike Evans will likely get a lot of Patrick Peterson this week, and as we saw last week the rest of the corners on this Cardinals team really struggled to defend Nelson Agholor and Torrey Smith both of which were able to score long touchdowns. If I can get a long touchdown from Jackson I am very confident in my success this week. 

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Julio Jones was the best value that I got this week. When you exclude the games against the Jets and the Titans who started Matt Cassell this Dolphins team is allowing 299.5 yards per game passing and to number one receivers in those game they are allowing 8.5 receptions and 94.5 yards. Jones has struggled a little bit this season and to get him as the fourth receiver off the board was tremendous value. 

4. Who is the team to beat this week? 
Keith’s team is the team to beat this week as even though I did not like the C.J. Anderson pick in the second round, to get Mike Evans in the fourth round was tremendous value even if he is going to face Patrick Peterson this week as combining him with T.Y. Hilton and Le'Veon Bell is a tremendous start to this week.  If Evans reaches value, it will make it almost impossible to beat his team. 

dan hindery - SLOT 3

Overview - Dan has a good team with plenty of players capable of hitting it big this week. The matchups aren't the best, but the pedigree of Dan's roster has the potential to overcome those challenges. Todd Gurley has been one of the best running backs in the league. He'll face off against the Jaguars who recently kept Le'Veon Bell in check. Can Gurley and the Rams put a dent into the surprisingly strong Jaguars defense? The answer to that may be a deciding factor in whether or not Dan finishes at the top this week. Lamar Miller vs. Cleveland looks good on paper, but the Browns have been strong against the run this year, allowing only two rushing touchdowns to running backs and no back has rushed for more than 66 yards in a game. The way Houston is playing on offense might buck that trend. Dan also has Deshaun Watson, who has been nothing short of outstanding over the last three games, totaling 11 touchdown passes in that span. Jordy Nelson is another strong scoring threat for Dan. Nelson has scored in four of the last five games including two multi-score games. If the trends continue for Dan's players, he should be at or near the top at week's end. 

dan ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I wanted to lock up a pair of solid running backs early and roll the dice on some high-upside players at quarterback and wide receiver late. I don’t like the running back depth this week after the top-10. I didn’t want to get stuck with one of the lesser backs. Thus, I knew I wanted one of the top-4 backs in the first round and that I’d be willing to reach a little bit for a running back in the second round if DeAndre Hopkins didn’t fall to my pick. I was hoping to put together a Deshaun Watson-DeAndre Hopkins stack but James foiled my plans by snagging Hopkins at 2.01. 
 
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you? 
Jordy Nelson is dealing with a little bit of a back injury but looks like he should be good to go for Sunday after being listed as a full participant in Wednesday’s practice. He has immense upside against a Minnesota defense that couldn’t stop him last year. In his last meeting against the Vikings, Nelson hauled in 9 catches for 154 yards and 2 touchdowns. If he goes off for a big game, he could push me to the top of the standings. 

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Deshaun Watson has been on fire, averaging over 35 Draft points per game over the last two weeks. This weekend the Cleveland Browns and their 31st ranked (DVOA) defense come to Houston. Watson has loads of upside and considering his heavy usage as a runner and the prime matchup, a very solid floor as well. In the mid-4th round, he is a steal. 

4. Who is the team to beat this week? 
I like Justin’s team. The Leonard Fournette-Devonta Freeman duo at running back is the best of the six teams. He was able to start RB-RB and still land plenty of upside at the other positions. The Aaron Rodgers-Davante Adams stack could be potent and the Jets defense is going to have a hard time dealing with the speed of Brandin Cooks.

justin howe - SLOT 4

Overview - I like the team that Justin has assembled this week. The combination of Leonard Fournette and Devonta Freeman at running back, along with Brandin Cooks and the Aaron Rodgers-Davante Adams stack makes this a strong team and a tough one to beat. Brandin Cooks can be hit or miss. He has scored in only one of five games this year, plus the Jets have not allowed a touchdown to a wide receiver each of the last two games (JAX, CLE). New England is capable of putting up big points, however they scored only 19 points last week against Tampa Bay, the worst fantasy defense against wide receivers this season. Cooks may be the make or break player for Justin this week. Davante Adams could have a big game if Jordy Nelson is heavily covered by Vikings ace corner Xavier Rhodes. Aaron Rodgers is capable of getting results no matter who he matches up against. Adams has been a key contributor for Rodgers. I don't see a dud game coming from him this week. If anything, I see the opposite. 

Justin ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
This was a draft of adapting on the fly as my preferred strategies kept falling apart. I was glad to land one of the top 3-4 backs of the week, but my top three wideouts went in the next four picks. So, I decided to stay robust at RB, chasing volume and scoring opportunity, and take Devonta Freeman. I feel like, even if my WR play is uneven, I'll spend Sunday watching both my RBs chase 30 touches and run on the goal line. With each of my NEXT three wideouts sniped before my third pick, I realized my best chance at QB/WR is a stack that hits big, so I took a swing at Aaron Rodgers/Davante Adams. If Rodgers posts his customary 300 yards and 2-4 touchdowns, a healthy chunk should go to Adams, who carries tournament-winning upside.

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Brandin Cooks is the only guy I'm especially wary about. In hindsight, I may have opted for Mike Evans, but I much prefer Cooks' matchup with a subpar Jets secondary to Evans' tangle with Patrick Peterson. And while I fret over Cooks' floor, I have to marvel at his ceiling - when their timing is right, Cooks and Tom Brady are a weekly, matchup-proof threat for 120 yards and multiple scores.

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I don't have a problem with the guys my draftmates took, but I can't help but observe what great value it brings to land a dynamic Rodgers stack with your third and fifth picks. Rodgers looks locked into solid lines, with 275 yards and 2 touchdowns looking like a weekly floor, Pairing him with Adams pays off massively on the weeks in which they're dialed in together, and this is such a cheap GPP-style investment in such strong upside.

4. Who is the team to beat this week?
I'm just gaga over what Keith was able to put together. His RBs are high-volume and in great matchups, while the WRs are high-ceiling guys, and one of them is stacked with a sneaky-great QB play. Expected game flow has C.J. Anderson seeing RB1 volume against a horrid run defense, and he's the RB2 here. And I love the Jameis Winston-Evans pairing. Winston is becoming a consistent downfield producer, and despite his part-time date with Peterson, Evans is an especially dynamic talent to be a fourth pick. 

sean settle - SLOT 5

Overview - Sean went all-in on Saints players vs Detroit this week. New Orleans is coming off a bye and Detroit is licking their wounds from a physical game against Carolina. Sean went after a triple stack in this draft, nabbing Michael Thomas, Drew Brees and Mark Ingram II. The Lions were vunerable against the pass last week and bottled up the run. The presence of rookie linebacker Jarrad Davis made all the difference in their run defense. Fellow Footballguy Aaron Rudnicki pointed out that with Davis, opposing teams are averaging 2.2 yards per carry, while 4.9 yards per carry when he's not on the field. Davis is expected to play this week, just as he did last week when Detroit held Carolina to 29 yards rushing. This could spell trouble for Mark Ingram II (and Alvin Kamara for that matter). Perhaps Ingram can get value as a receiver?  I like the other picks of Melvin Gordon III at Oakland and Larry Fitzgerald vs Tampa Bay. The matchup for Fitzgerald could be huge, especially if Arizona's offensive line can keep Carson Palmer from pressure. There is potential for this team to come out on top, especially if New Orleans and Drew Brees can dissect the Lions defense. If Detroit puts up a battle on defense, the chances of Sean winning drops significantly. 

sean ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
Drafting from 1.05 spot I watched most of my initial picks go out the window waiting for my turn. All of the top running backs came off the board early and I felt I needed to follow suit with Melvin Gordon III and hope he would put together a game like last week against the Giants. I again watched as James took each of my top rated WR on the turn and decided to try and target what I felt would be one of the highest scoring games of the week. My next 3 picks were all in on New Orleans against the Lions. With Michael Thomas, Drew Brees, and Mark Ingram II I should have a piece of almost every scoring play in that game for the Saints with the O/U coming in at 50 points as of today. My final pick had more to do with a high upside in Larry Fitzgerald. With the recent acquisition of Adrian Peterson, who is slated to play right away, teams will have to shift their focus off Fitzgerald and should open a few more passing lanes.

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you? 
Drew Brees is going to make or break this week and it has nothing to do with his individual performance. Brees could throw for 400 yards and 5 touchdowns but if none of that comes to Michael Thomas or Mark Ingram II then it will not matter. Brees’ favorite target has been Thomas all season and with Adrian Peterson out of the mix, Mark Ingram II should play a bigger role. The fate of this week comes down to who Drew Brees gives the ball to.

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
The best value came in Mark Ingram II this week and that is only because of the Peterson trade. Ingram on his own would not rank high enough over other starting running backs to be drafted in this format. However, now that his share of carries will increase he will slowly start making his way back up the board. Ingram is more of a sleeper pick this week as we are not sure what the actual carry distribution will be, but I felt comfortable betting on the upside.

4. Who is the team to beat this week? 
Justin looks to be the team to beat this week with the Rodgers Adams stack and a healthy cast of players around him that expect big workloads. Fournette has emerged as a premier running back and should see a high volume of carries as the passing game continues to struggle. There is no betting against Aaron Rodgers even against a stingy Vikings defense and he seems to have found a new favorite target in Adams. Devonta Freeman has not had a breakout game yet this season but he is always a candidate to take it to the house on any play. All teams seem evenly matched this week but Justin may come out on top with what he put together.

james brimacombe - SLOT 6

Overview - James can win if his running backs provide just enough production. The first three picks consisted of Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins and Tom Brady. It's hard to find a better combination than that at those positions. The make or break answer to whether James gets the blue ribbon looks to be on Jay Ajayi and Carlos Hyde. I don't have a lot of confidence in Miami's offense enough to consider Ajayi a valuable pick here, especially on the road at Atlanta. The running back selections in the fourth and fifth round were scarce, but I would've been happier with Doug Martin in what looks like a high scoring game in Arizona. Miami may be lucky to score 13 points. Carlos Hyde at Washington is another pick that doesn't work for me, but it's not bad. I almost wonder if Alvin Kamara, James White or Chris Thompson would've been a better pick here? Waiting on running back in this draft can be a challenge to get right. Doing so allows you to focus your efforts on securing other positions with a strong player, but you still have to fill your roster with two running backs. In James' case, his chances of reaching pay dirt will hinge on those decisions. 

james ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I got dealt the 1.06 pick and I felt it as the top 5 running backs went off the board right in front of me. I knew for me to win this week I would have to take some chances right out of the gate so instead of going RB/RB at the turn I went WR/WR with Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins in hopes that both will continue to see a heavy dose of targets and maybe luck into a multi-touchdown game. In these DRAFT 6-man contest I almost always go RB/RB and even wait until the last round to draft my QB. I went with Tom Brady as my third-round pick in hopes of locking down the top quarterback. My last two picks were Jay Ajayi and Carlos Hyde as I knew I had the pick of the leftover running backs. Both running backs have a bad rep right now so I am hoping for bounce back games with heavy volume of touches for each.

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?  
I think you could have your pick of any of my five players that could make or break me. I drafted with my back up against the wall, so essentially I need all five of these guys to have above average games. I would say the WR/WR pairing of Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins will have to be my duo that takes me to the top if I was to win. If they can both see 10+ targets and get a touchdown a piece I might be able to contend with the stronger RB teams.

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Tom Brady felt like a win, getting him after Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. Brady has a nice matchup against the Jets this week in a game that actually consists of two 3-2 teams. The Patriots will likely pile on the points without taking their foot off the gas, and that offense starts and ends with Tom Brady. In the two games Brady played the Jets last year, he threw for a combined 5 touchdowns, so a 3-touchdown game here would seem likely.

4. Who is the team to beat this week? 
I would say Keith’s team looks pretty good on paper, with Le'Veon Bell, C.J. Anderson set for heavy workloads in good matchups. He also has Hilton and Evans at wide receiver who are target monsters for their teams and the nice stack of Jameis Winston with Evans gives his team a lot of upside if the two can connect this week.

PROJECTIONS PREDICT THE WINNER

 

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com