DFS Roundtable: Tight End Swap Meet

Give us your top option for each site under those salary marks. Ultimately, do you find this option to be a stronger per-dollar play than Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, or Evan Engram? If not, tell us which of those high-dollar guys you're more interested in.

Tight end pricing seems friendly to us for Week 14; there's unusually strong volume and touchdown opportunity available for less than $5,000 DraftKings / $6,000 FanDuel. Give us your top option for each site under those salary marks. Ultimately, do you find this option to be a stronger per-dollar play than Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, or Evan Engram? If not, tell us which of those high-dollar guys you're more interested in.

Jason Wood: This is probably the week to spend up at tight end, because on paper there is a treasure trove of viable cheaper alternatives. We're all going to bargain hunt and everyone is going to whiff with 3-catch, 35-yard days while the studs score multiple touchdowns each. Or not.

Ertz's likely elevation to Probable vaults him into my top spot. Kelce is my No. 2 play right now, but I also expect that to be mega-chalk.

Among the value tier, my favorites are Jack Doyle (DK / FD $5,400), Stephen Anderson (DK / FD $4,500), Cameron Brate (DK / FD $5,400), and Hunter Henry (DK / FD $5,600). Doyle has been remarkably consistent but is coming off a bad week, which should get his ownership back in line. Anderson benefits from being the last man standing in Houston, but he's got a much lower floor (could be a zero) than the others on this list. I'm perplexed by my colleagues’ lack of excitement for Brate. Fresh of a two-touchdown performance, with Jameis Winston back under center, he could easily be the top-scoring tight end this week against a beaten-up Lions defense. Last but not least, Henry has shaken off a woeful start to the season and re-asserted himself as a go-to option for Philip Rivers.

Justin Howe: You’re not the only Footballguy all over Brate, Jason. He’s again my top value play for the week. There’s something very special about his connection with Jameis Winston. I know it only yielded two targets last week, but both were touchdowns and neither was a fluke. Dating back to last year, Brate has drawn 5.7 targets per game in Winston’s starts, turning in an average line of 3.8 catches, 46.4 yards, and 0.58 scores (11.9 DK points, 10.0 FD). With his quarterback under center, Brate is a true touchdown machine. $4,100 is a relative bargain for his upside, though I’m similarly intrigued by Greg Olsen at a similar price point ($4,300). Panthers coach Ron Rivera claims Olsen will be deployed without restriction, so he should probably be priced closer to $4,800.

James Brimacombe: Stephen Anderson is my play on FanDuel at only $4,500. The minimum price allows you to pay up at the running back and wide receiver positions, and behind DeAndre Hopkins on the Texans he may be the next-best receiving option. Anderson is coming off a game against the Titans in which he played 68 snaps and saw 12 targets for 5-79-1. For $4,500 salary you have to love those 12 targets, and maybe you can't predict that same volume this week, but somewhere in the 6-10 target range has to be in play.

On DraftKings you could also plug in Anderson at $3,200, but I also don't mind looking at Austin Seferian-Jenkins at $3,600. Denver is the third-worst team against the tight end position, allowing an average stat line of 5-68-0.7 to the position. They have allowed touchdowns to Julius Thomas, Tyler Kroft, Dwayne Allen, Trey Burton, Travis Kelce, Evan Engram, Charles Clay, and Jason Witten so far this season. Seferian-Jenkins has slowed down since his 3 touchdowns in a row back in weeks 5-7. But he is still averaging six targets per game on the season, and this could be a good spot for him to find the end zone once again.

Dan Hindery: I am in complete agreement with James: I like Anderson as my favorite play on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He is the only healthy tight end on the Texans and should see a heavy workload again. He is an athletic hybrid tight end who has big-play ability and has consistently flashed in the preseason and when given opportunities in the regular season. San Francisco has allowed the sixth-most normalized fantasy points to tight ends over the last five weeks.

Seferian-Jenkins is the other player who I am extremely high on this week. He has a plum matchup against Denver and could see an even bigger share of targets with Robby Anderson questionable with a hamstring injury.

Danny Tuccitto: There are only four tight ends to consider in your lineups this week on DraftKings: Anderson ($3,200), Kelce ($7,400), Ricky Seals-Jones ($3,400), and Seferian-Jenkins ($3,600).

The two S-Js are particularly appealing. Austin's salary has decreased by $700 to the lowest it's been since Week 5, and he faces a Broncos pass defense that's allowing the 9th-most fantasy points to tight ends according to Austin Lee's normalized stats. Ricky's salary has increased by $700, but he's at home facing a Titans pass defense that's allowing the 7th-most fantasy points, including 18.9 to Anderson just last week.

As is my wont, another main consideration is value probability. Here are where each of these four stands, in terms of both the theoretical and actual:

Anderson – 56% theoretical, 24% actual in cash games; 36% theoretical, 6% actual in tournaments (in 17 games with Houston since the start of 2014).

Kelce – 37%, 45% in cash; 14%, 23% in tournaments (60).

Seals-Jones – 38%, 67% in cash; 22%, 67% in tournaments (3).

Seferian-Jenkins – 44%, 17% in cash; 28%, 11% in tournaments (60).

Taking all of the above into consideration, I'll be playing Kelce in both cash games and tournaments, Anderson in cash games only, and the S-Js in tournaments only.

John Mamula: I prefer punting at tight end this week in order to help me pay up at running back and wide receiver. I agree with my colleagues that Anderson is my top value option on both sites. C.J. Fiedorowicz and Bruce Ellington were both placed on injured reserve this week, which should lock Anderson into a minimum of 5-6 targets. Anderson played a career-high 68 offensive snaps last week with Fiedorowicz exiting with a concussion. Will Fuller V was a full participant in practice on Thursday but may not be able to tolerate the stress of game action.


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