DFS Roundtable: Fade City, Population: You

Tell us which popular DFS play you're most likely to fade on Wild Card Weekend.

Tell us which popular play you'll be fading most for Wild Card Weekend. Whether it's because they're overpriced or likely to be over-owned - or you have some grand overall strategy in place - rank the following options in terms of fadeability (#1 will be your most-faded of the group, while #4 will be your most-owned).

Todd Gurley
Alvin Kamara
Julio Jones
Travis Kelce

Chris Feery

Jones – I’m leaning toward the high-priced running backs for the bulk of my lineups, and that means I’ll need to save a lot of money elsewhere. Jones is too pricey to fit in with them, and he hasn’t found the end zone enough this season to be considered a safe option. 

Kelce – Also fading here mainly for salary cap purposes. He’ll be incredibly popular this week as the clear-cut top tight end on the board, so the desire to save salary cap dollars actually leads me to find a lesser-owned player that will help provide differentiation for my lineups.  

Kamara – I fully expect the Saints rushing offense to produce against the Panthers on Sunday, and I’ll have plenty of shares of Kamara as a result.  

Gurley – There’s zero reason to fade Gurley this week. The Rams offense has been electric all season, and he’s been the main cog. That’s not going to change this week.

Jason Wood

Jones – Jones has failed to deliver value in too many weeks to count on him as one of the higher-priced pieces of your playoff lineup.

Gurley – Gurley is so expensive and yet will probably be the weekend’s highest-owned player, so it's hard to not fade him at least a bit (relative to others' implied ownership).

Kamara – Kamara is a great choice, but Mark Ingram II is less expensive.

Kelce – Kelce will be a fixture in my core lineups.

Justin Bonnema

Jones – as Jason noted, he hasn't been reliable for the massive games we know he's capable of. It's always tough fading him, but his lack of red zone work and consistent injury problems have me leaning towards fading him this weekend.

Gurley – he's the Rams' offense. But his price is tough to justify on a short slate that features a bunch of other options.

Kamara – this is a bit of a contradiction for me, considering I qualified him as "matchup-proof" in a different thread and I love him in Saints power stacks, but I also think he can be faded in favor of Leonard Fournette/Kareem Hunt/Devonta Freeman. I love Kamara. But the Saints offense may be forced to pass, which I realize is one of his strengths... I’m just not sure when regression will hit his elite touchdown-scoring rate.  

Kelce – fade at your own risk. He's the one player I know will be upwards of 80% owned, and I don't even care. The Titans have enjoyed an easy schedule against tight ends this season, yet have allowed the 11th-most yards and 5 touchdowns. Kelce is the most elite player they've faced at the position and they have no one that can cover him. All in.

Justin Howe

Based on my expectation of trotting out eight GPP lineups:

Jones – I’ve harped on Jones all year for his touchdown allergy and tendency to semi-vanish from games. Of course, on a small slate, we don’t need massive numbers from the guy. But he’s overpriced considering his ceiling isn’t far beyond that of Tyreek Hill’s, which comes at a marginal discount. 1/8 lineups

Kamara – I love the guy, and I can foresee regretting this. But if I churn out, say, eight GPP lineups, Kamara won’t be in more than two. He doesn’t deserve such a salary premium over teammate Ingram, who’s a lynchpin play for me this weekend. 2/8 lineups

Kelce – Great floor, great ceiling, but he’s costly. On small slates, tight end is a good spot to diversify by chasing dirt-cheap touchdowns. 3/8 lineups

Gurley – Gimme gimme gimme, and you don’t need me to explain why. 5/8 lineups… However, Gurley is so costly and will be so highly-owned that, if I were to only play one lineup, I’d go full-contrarian and fade him. Unless he absolutely erupts, there’s probably more +EV in fading than cramming him in.

John Mamula

Jones – Jones has disappointed in multiple spots, scoring only three touchdowns this season. Touchdowns are what moves the needle on a short slate, and Jones is a high-priced option that is unlikely to score again this week.

Kelce – I agree with Justin that Kelce will be extremely popular this weekend. That is one of the reasons why I will be underweight on him in GPP tournaments. I prefer to pay down at tight end with the hope that I can differentiate my lineups.

Kamara – I am more likely to pay up at the running back position with Kamara or Gurley. Kamara and the Saints rushing offense have shown that they are matchup-proof.

Gurley – Gurley was a fantasy darling with 2,093 total yards and a whopping 19 touchdowns this season. He carried many DFS lineups and season-long teams. Gurley will be very popular as he has a legitimate shot at a multiple-touchdown performance. I will be overweight on my Gurley ownership in GPP tournaments this week.

James Brimacombe

Kamara – The Saints are one of the most complete teams on offense in the playoffs and being such will make it tough to know who to play out of Brees, Kamara, Ingram, and Thomas. I will let others pay the money for Kamara and would rather spend on Gurley or Fournette.

Kelce – The matchup is a great one for Kelce this week against the Titans, but paying up at the TE position feels wrong.

Jones – Most will be fading Jones this week because of price and his lack of touchdowns on the season. I like him, though, and seeing what he did in last year’s playoffs makes me want to have exposure this year also.

Gurley – You can not fade him in cash whatsoever; he is a must-play. In GPP, you can fade him because of the price, but really: who else are you going to pay up for? DFS is volume-driven and Gurley has been the king of volume all season, so there’s no need to go against the grain this week.

Mediator: That brings our aggregate tally to:

Jones 1 1 1 1 1 3 1.33
Kamara 3 3 3 3 2 3 2.83
Kelce 2 4 4 3 2 2 2.83
Gurley 4 2 2 4 4 4 3.33

A fairly even, consistent count. The verdict: Don’t go hog-wild on Jones, and don’t get too GPP-cute on Gurley.

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