Each week I take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel. I examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I am attempting to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup. In some cases, I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide, and you will have multiple options to help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
Facing No. 32 ranked DVOA pass defense - No. 23 ranked pass defense allowing 238.6 yards per game
Game Total - 47
Implied Totals - Eagles at 28 points and Raiders at 19 points
Game Line - Philadelphia Eagles - 9
The Philadelphia Eagles bring the Tampa Bay Buccaneers into town on Monday night for an NFC matchup in Week 16. The Eagles have one of the highest implied total of the week (28) and will not have problems putting points on the board versus the Raiders.
The Raiders have given up 42 passing plays of 20 or more yards in 2017 and only 12 teams in the league have given up more of these types of plays. The Raiders have given up 11 passing plays of 40 or more yards in 2017 and only three teams in the league have given up more. Oakland has surrendered an average of 7.7 yards per catch and only five teams across the league have yielded a higher average.
The Raiders do not generate much pressure on the passer and have sacked the quarterback only 28 times in 2017. There are only nine teams in the NFL with fewer sacks this year. The Raiders secondary will be forced to cover the Eagles receiving options for too long, and I would expect Foles to get comfortable and make plays as a passer in this game.
Jeffery was targeted 10 times last week in Foles’ first start and he caught 4 passes for 49 yards and a score. The Eagles need to get Foles going and this is the kind of matchup that he can exploit. Foles and Jeffery are an excellent stack for GPP play in Week 16.
Pivot: Rostering wide receiver Nelson Agholor ($5,900) gives you a piece of what should be a high scoring game and relieves some of the salary you would have to pay to roster Jeffery. There is still a level of uncertainty with Foles at the helm and it is possible that Agholor can get enough volume to be a solid play. He was targeted 9 times last week and he caught seven passes for 59 yards and a score. Another way to go is to roster tight end Zach Ertz ($7,300) as he saw nine targets last week. He caught six passes for 56 yards and a score.
Facing No. 25 ranked DVOA pass defense - No. 25 ranked pass defense allowing 242.6 yards per game
Game Total - 48.5
Implied Totals - Rams at 27.5 points and Titans at 21 points
Game Line - Los Angeles Rams - 6.5
The Los Angeles Rams travel to Tennessee on Sunday to take on the Titans in a Week 16 matchup. This game has the second highest total of the week and both teams should be able to put points on the board in this game.
The Titans do a solid job of defending the pass, allowing an average of 6.8 yards per catch. Only nine teams in the NFL are better in this area than the Titans. However, the Titans have allowed 23 scores via the passing game and only 10 teams in the NFL allow more.
Teams are moving the ball down the field and putting the ball into the end zone, but they are not hitting the Titans over the top with big, vertical passing plays. Goff is going to pick apart the Titans secondary on Sunday and he has a chance to have an excellent outing.
Coaching matters, and there might not be a better example across the league right now than Rams head coach Sean McVay. The Rams are getting set at the line of scrimmage quickly and it is allowing them to see the defense get set. Goff then looks to the sideline to get the call, and that allows the Rams to adjust to get the offense into a play to take advantage of the defense.
Woods was injured and missed three games before returning last week versus the Seattle Seahawks. Woods had seen heavy volume before the injury, and in his return last week he was targeted seven times. He caught six balls for 45 yards and a score.
Goff and Woods were very much in sync before the injury and if they can get Woods back to his No. 1 status in this passing offense, he will be a steal in GPP play in Week 16.
Facing No. 29 ranked DVOA pass defense - No. 32 ranked pass defense allowing 271.3 yards per game
Game Total - 46.5
Implied Totals - Panthers at 28 points and Buccaneers at 18.5 points
Game Line - Carolina Panthers - 10
The Carolina Panthers bring the Tampa Bay Buccaneers into town on Sunday for an NFC South matchup in Week 16. The Panthers have one of the highest implied total of the week, and the Panthers should be able to exploit the Buccaneers pass defense to put points on the board in this contest.
Tampa Bay allows 7.9 yards per catch and only two teams in the NFL allow a higher average. The Buccaneers have given up 52 passing plays of 20 or more yards in 2017 and only two teams in the league have given up more of these types of plays. They have given up 10 passing plays of 40 or more yards in 2017 and only six teams in the league have given up more.
The Buccaneers continue to struggle to get pressure and make the opposing quarterback uncomfortable. They rank last in the NFL with 18 total sacks in 2017. Newton should have plenty of time to make plays within the pocket in this matchup, but he will also get you rushing yardage to boost his value.
Olsen has been banged up with a foot injury and he returned four weeks ago, but struggled with soreness and was not effective. He missed the next game and did little in his next game versus the Vikings in Week 14.
Week 15 was a different story as Olsen paced the Panthers passing attack as he was targeted 12 times, catching 9 passes for 116 yards and a score. The Panthers need to get Olsen as involved as they can as they are going to be playing playoff football and his ability to stretch the field and be a pass catching weapon can open up things for the entire offense.
Newton and Olsen have a chance to light up the Buccaneers in this game and together they make an intriguing stack for GPP play in Week 16.
HIGHER RISK STACKS
Facing No. 20 ranked DVOA pass defense - No. 18 ranked pass defense allowing 229.7 yards per game
Game Total - 47
Implied Totals - Seahawks at 21 points and Cowboys at 26 points
Game Line - Seattle Seahawks + 5
The Seattle Seahawks take to the road on Sunday as travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys in an important Week 16 NFC matchup. The Seahawks come into this game after getting throttled at home last week by the Rams, and the playoff picture is muddy as both teams desperately need a win to stay alive in the wildcard race.
The Cowboys have given up 26 touchdowns via the pass and only four teams in the NFL have surrendered more in 2017. While they are adequate in limiting yards per catch, they are getting crushed by allowing touchdowns through the air.
The Cowboys have given up 42 passing plays of 20 or more yards and only 12 teams in the league have given up more this year. Interestingly, the Seahawks are forecast to score three touchdowns and if they are going to score three, they will likely come via Wilson. The Seahawks have gotten no help from their ground game and the entire offense is predicated on Wilson.
Before last week’s debacle at home, Wilson was on fire having accounted for 23 touchdowns over an eight-game span. He is averaging 46 yards rushing over that span as well.
The game script is favorable for Wilson as the Cowboys are favored at home and if they get up, it will fall on Wilson to get the Seahawks back in the game. That is a positive for Wilson as the Cowboys pass defense is vulnerable. However, there is risk here with a low implied total and with the Seahawks offense coming off such a disastrous performance just one week ago.
Baldwin is the Seahawks first option in their passing attack but has only seen 20 targets over the past four games. He has caught 11 passes for 193 yards and one score over that span. You are playing Baldwin as a bit of a dart throw with a plus matchup and positive game script, but it carries risk as he has been marginalized in this offense of late.
Wilson and Baldwin have an excellent matchup in Week 16, but this stack carries significant risk because of the reason laid out above. However, it is worth consideration for GPP play in Week 16.
Pivot: Wide receiver Paul Richardson Jr ($5,800) is another solid option in this contest and he comes at a reduced price from Baldwin. He has been targeted 25 times over the past four weeks and has caught 11 passes for 168 yards and a score over that span. He carries the same risk as Baldwin with a touch less upside, just at a better price.
Alex Collins ($8,300) + Kansas City Chiefs ($5,600) = $13,900
The Baltimore Ravens are at home versus the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday for a Week 16 matchup. The Ravens are a 13.5-point home favorite, and Collins has played extremely well in 2017.
Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett is getting heavy pressure and opposing defenses are generating sacks against the Colts at an alarming rate. They have surrendered 53 sacks in 2017 and that is last in the NFL. It is easy to see the Ravens getting pressure on Brissett in this game which will lead to defensive production in this contest.
The Colts are the league’s No. 14 ranked DVOA run defense in 2017. They are ranked No. 29 in yards allowed per game (124.2). The game script calls for the Ravens to be up early in this game, and they could heavily rely on their running game to chew up the clock and finish the game.
Ingram is a dual-purpose back and he has been remarkably effective in 2017, emerging as the No. 1 back for the Ravens. He sees work as a runner and as a receiver and will have the opportunity to have a big day on Sunday. He has scored five times as a runner since the Week 10 bye, and he has caught 15 passes over that span.
The game script looks outstanding for Collins as the Ravens should be up and pounding the ball while killing time in the second half of this game. Both sides of this stack have a chance to be extremely productive and it is an excellent option for GPP play in Week 16.
Dion Lewis ($6,700) + New England Patriots ($4,600) = $11,300
The New England Patriots take on the Buffalo Bills in an AFC East matchup in Week 16. The Patriots are a 12-point home favorite facing a Bills team that is one dimensional, and they will have opportunities to make plays in defense in this game.
The Bills are dead last in net passing in 2017, throwing for 2397 yards and that makes them easier to defend as teams can focus on stopping running back LeSean McCoy. The Patriots will look to force quarterback Tyrod Taylor to beat them with his arm and that is a winning formula for the Patriots defense.
The Bills are the league’s No. 28 ranked DVOA run defense in 2017. They are ranked No. 25 allowing 122 yards per game, and they have given up 19 touchdowns on the ground this year which is last in the NFL. Lewis will yield touches to others like James White and others, but he should be in a great spot in this contest to get into the end zone and put up nice yardage.
The game script looks excellent for Lewis and the Patriots defense in this game. There is excellent opportunity for both pieces of this stack to pay off, and this is a very intriguing stack for GPP play in Week 16.