Each week I take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel. I examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I am attempting to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup. In some cases, I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide, and you will have multiple options to help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
Facing No. 31 ranked DVOA pass defense - No. 30 ranked pass defense allowing 274.7 yards per game
Game Total - 44.5
Implied Totals - Chiefs at 27.5 points and Giants at 17 points
Game Line - Kansas City Chiefs - 10.5
The Kansas City Chiefs travel to New Jersey to take on the New York Giants on Sunday in Week 11. The Chiefs have the third-highest implied total of the week and should have a relatively easy time of it in this game.
The Giants have struggled to defend the pass as they have surrendered a 7.9-yard average which is fourth worst in the NFL. Also, the Giants have given up 20 scores through the air which is worst in the NFL. The Giants have surrendered 35 passing plays of 20 or more yards and only the Indianapolis Colts have allowed more in 2017.
Also, only three teams in the NFL have allowed more 40+ yard passing plays than the nine plays the Giants have surrendered. Lastly, the Giants have only registered 13 sacks in 2017 which is the least in the NFL. Smith will have the time to allow deeper routes to develop in this game and that should open up Hill for a few big plays.
Hill is very reliant on the big play and the Giants have been gashed recently via those types of plays. Three weeks ago, the Giants gave up a 38-yard score the Seahawks wide receiver Paul Richardson. Two weeks ago, they surrendered a 52-yard score to Rams receiver Robert Woods and a 67-yard score to Rams receiver Sammy Watkins. Last week, 49ers receiver Marquise Goodwin hit the Giants for an 83-yard score.
Clearly there is a path for a big day for Hill and this stack is worthy of consideration for GPP play in Week 11.
Pivot: Travis Kelce ($7,500) has emerged as a primary weapon for the Chiefs, but he will be heavily owned in this game as the Giants have allowed a touchdown to the position in every game this year. They are the league’s No. 26 ranked DVOA pass defense versus tight ends in 2017 and Kelce will get catches and yards in this game.
Facing No. 32 ranked DVOA pass defense - No. 22 ranked pass defense allowing 244.6 yards per game
Game total - 52
Implied Totals - Patriots at 29 points and Raiders at 23 points
Game Line - New England Patriots -6.5
The New England Patriots go to Mexico City on Sunday night to take on the Oakland Raiders in Week 11. This game has the highest scoring total of the week (52), and it is a matchup that has shootout potential.
The Raiders have struggled to defend the pass as they have surrendered a 7.9-yard average which is fourth worst in the NFL. The Raiders have given up 14 scores through the air which puts them right in the middle of the pack in 2017.
The Raiders cannot pressure the quarterback and have only registered 13 sacks in 2017 which is ranked last in the NFL. The concept of Brady standing in the pocket unpressured should excite anyone considering starting Brady and any of his receiving options. It is very realistic to see Brady torching this pass defense and throwing for multiple passing scores.
The Raiders are the league’s No. 30 DVOA pass defense against tight ends in the passing game, and Gronkowski has a real shot to blow up in this game. He has been targeted 34 times over the Patriots last four games and he has caught 18 passes for 265 yards and three scores over that span.
The Raiders are going to score points (23 point implied total), and that puts the Patriots offense in a situation where they are throwing the ball. The Patriots are forecast to score four-plus touchdowns and given the fact that Brady will have time, it is easy to see the passing game being responsible for the lion’s share of the scoring here.
Pivot: Brandin Cooks ($7,700) is a highly volatile play, but he can turn one play into a huge point producer, and if you are rostering him, you are going to need a few of those in this matchup. He should have a shot and is worth a dart throw that gives you a piece of this matchup in what should be a shootout.
Facing No. 30 ranked DVOA pass defense - No. 32 ranked pass defense allowing 287.2 yards per game
Game Total - 52
Implied Totals - Raiders at 23 points and Patriots at 29 points
Game Line - New England Patriots - 6.5
The Oakland Raiders are at “home” in Mexico City against the New England Patriots in Week 11. Quarterback Derek Carr enters this game hot from a yardage standpoint, throwing for 300+ yards in three straight games. He is not producing touchdowns at a high rate, but he will have plenty of opportunities to change that in this contest.
The Patriots have surrendered 17 passing touchdowns in 2017 and only six teams in the NFL have allowed more in 2017. The Patriots allow an 8.1-yard average and only two teams in the NFL allow a higher average. The Patriots have given up 35 passing plays of 20 or more yards and only the Colts and Chiefs have allowed more in 2017.
From a game-script perspective, this game has the potential to go over and with the Patriots forecast to score four-plus touchdowns; it is easy to see the Raiders being forced to throw to stay in the game. While the Patriots have tightened things up on defense over the course of this season, they are still vulnerable. The expected volume for the Raiders passing game makes this stack extremely intriguing.
Cooper has been targeted 44 times in the Raiders past four games before the Week 10 bye. He has 25 catches for 344 yards and two scores over that span, but we will all be looking for a repeat of his Week 7 performance versus the Chiefs as he went for 11 catches and 210 yards to go along with two scores.
HIGHER RISK STACKS
Facing No. 27 ranked DVOA pass defense - No. 17 ranked pass defense allowing 230.6 yards per game
Game Total - 37.5
Implied Totals - Jaguars at 22.5 points and Browns at 15 points
Game Line - Jacksonville Jaguars - 7.5
The Jacksonville Jaguars travel to Cleveland to take on the Browns in an AFC matchup in Week 11. The Texans have surrendered 19 passing touchdowns in 2017 and only two teams in the NFL have allowed more in 2017.
The Texans allow a 7.6-yard average and only six teams in the NFL allow a higher average. The Browns have given up 29 passing plays of 20 or more yards and only 10 teams in the NFL have allowed more.
The Browns are the league’s No. 2 ranked DVOA run defense, and they are the fourth best defense against the run, allowing 86.4 yards per game. The Browns are allowing 3.1 yards per carry which is best in the NFL.
The Jaguars are going to try to establish the run, but it is likely that they will struggle and that means Bortles and the Jaguars passing attack will lead the offense on Sunday. This is an excellent spot for Bortles as he is a candidate to throw multiple touchdowns versus the Browns, and with the Jaguars forecast to score three-plus touchdowns, it is reasonable to see that coming from the passing game.
Lee has become the Jaguars first option in their passing attack having been targeted 39 times over their past four games. Over that span, he has caught 23 passes for 285 yards, and he has scored in each of the Jaguars past two games. Also, receiver Allen Hurns is out for Sunday’s game and that ratchets up the potential volume for Lee making him even more intriguing.
The risk here is all on the low total for this game, and the low implied number for the Browns. Can they push the Jaguars to throw the ball to elevate the ceiling for the passing game?
Bortles and Lee have a strong chance to get to three-times value here due to volume alone, and while risky, this stack is worth consideration for GPP play in Week 11. Note that Marqise Lee is listed as questionable on the injury report with a knee injury, but it sounds like he will play. Make sure to watch the reports and see that he gets in a full practice before rostering him.
Pivot: Marcedes Lewis ($4,900) is a nice option in this matchup as the Browns are the league’s No. 31 ranked DVOA pass defense versus the tight end. They are surrendering 73.5 yards per game to the position, and if you get a score from Lewis, he will be an excellent value for GPP play at his price.
Facing No. 31 ranked DVOA pass defense - No. 15 ranked pass defense allowing 225 yards per game
Game Total - 40.5
Implied Totals - Buccaneers at 19 points and Dolphins at 22 points
Game Line - Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 3
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to face the Miami Dolphins for an AFC matchup on Sunday in Week 11. This is an excellent matchup for the Buccaneers passing game as they have significant advantages over the Buccaneers defense in multiple areas.
While the general outlook is very positive, the risk here is the low total and that puts a cap on the amount of production we can expect coming from this game. Playing Fitzpatrick also adds more risk and you need to be comfortable with the level of risk here to play this stack. Good Fitzpatrick is good and productive, but bad Fitzpatrick will sink your entire roster.
The Dolphins surrender a 7.5-yard average and only nine teams in the NFL have yielded a bigger average. Also, only five teams in the NFL have generated fewer sacks than the 16 the Dolphins have registered in 2017.
Fitzpatrick is a significant step back from starting quarterback Jameis Winston, but he can still make plays and gets a nice bump with receiver Mike Evans returning from a one-game suspension. Rostering Fitzpatrick offers the ability to spend up elsewhere, and it is not going to take crazy numbers for Fitzpatrick to get to value at his price.
Evans was targeted 34 times in his four games before the suspension. He caught 16 passes for 256 yards and scored twice in that span, and my thoughts are that Fitzpatrick is going to force feed Evans the ball.
The Raiders are the No. 27 DVOA pass defense against first options in the passing game, and Evans will have plenty of chances to make plays in this game. Rostering Fitzpatrick and Evans offer some savings while still presenting the chance to get to three-times value for GPP play in Week 11.
Kareem Hunt ($8,600) + Kansas City Chiefs ($5,100) = $13,700
The Kansas City Chiefs travel to the Meadowlands to take on the New York Giants on Sunday for a Week 11 matchup. The Chiefs are a 10.5-point road favorite in a game they should easily win, and they face a Giants team that has a “mailed it in” glaze about them.
The Giants are the league’s No. 27 ranked DVOA run defense in 2017. They are also ranked No. 13 overall in yards allowed per game (109.6) and only six teams in the league allow a higher average of 4.4 yards per carry. The Giants have allowed six touchdowns and only 12 teams in the NFL have allowed more.
This matchup will funnel touches to Hunt with the big spread and he will also be involved in the passing game. To summarize, the Chiefs should smash the Giants and Hunt is going to be a big factor in this game. Also, Vegas is calling for the Chiefs to score around four touchdowns with an implied total of 27.5 points, and being such a heavy favorite, we can assume they will be up at home chewing out the clock via the running game.
The Giants are struggling on offense, and they are having a hard time protecting quarterback Eli Manning which means good things for production from the Chiefs defense. The Chiefs will harass Manning and force him to put the ball into bad spots which gives the Chiefs defense opportunity to make plays.
The potential is there for both sides of this stack to produce and they warrant consideration for GPP play in Week 11.
Melvin Gordon III ($7,800) + Los Angeles Chargers ($4,300) = $12,100
The Los Angeles Chargers bring the Buffalo Bills into town on Sunday for an AFC matchup in Week 11. The Chargers are a four-point home favorite, but they should handle the Bills in this contest to easily come away with a win as Bills rookie quarterback Nathan Peterman is making his first career start on the road this week.
The Bills are the league’s No. 31 ranked DVOA run defense in 2017. They are also ranked No. 22 in yards allowed per game (117). The Bills have allowed 14 rushing touchdowns in 2017 which ranks last in the NFL by a long way. The Bills have lost their way trying to defend the run and have been scorched for 494 yards over the past two games.
Gordon is still the Chargers first option in the running game and he will have plenty of chances in this contest. There is a huge floor for Gordon in this game, and he is an intriguing option for DFS play this week.
The Bills offense is going to struggle with Peterman at the helm and the Chargers defense should be in nice position to make plays against the young quarterback. Those plays will come via pressure in the form of sacks and potential interceptions due to that pressure.
The game script looks good for Gordon as the Chargers should be up and pounding the ball while killing time in the second half of this game. Both sides of this stack should be productive and it is an intriguing option for GPP play in Week 11.
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