Well, that could have gone better. Apparently the Patriots are healthy, after all. And apparently Vegas loves when Aaron Rodgers hoists up prayers that ruin point spreads. And apparently a push in a playoff game should be considered a win after the prior nonsense. But hey, I sure did nail that Carolina game, didn't I?!?
Let's get to the picks!
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP PICKS
New England (-3) at Denver
So here we go again. Except this time, it's missing a lot of juice. I mean let's face it, Peyton Manning is washed-up. I kept reading about these dropped passes a week ago, but the reality is that those wobbly ducks had an insanely high degree of difficulty for "routine" passes. He can't get the ball downfield, and looks scatterbrained at times (something you never thought you'd hear about Manning). The run game is good but not great. The receivers are the strength of the offense, but even they've got the disadvantage of having Manning in the "Al Pacino in Simone" stage of his career. So there's very little downfield threat. Even the vaunted defense allowed an Antonio Brown-less Steelers team to hang around all game while the likes of Darrius Heyward-Bey and Sammie Coates and Jesse James (no not the gunslinger...and no not the white rapper from the 90's...and no not Eric Decker's wife...and no not the pornstar, that's Jessie Jane...yeah, not any of them it was the OTHER one) to make big plays. And now they've got to take on Brady. And Gronk. And Edelman. And Billy. And all the history. No, I don't see any way Denver comes out of this one alive. Even Vegas is telling us that their home field advantage doesn't mean crap. Patriots in a rout. (Ok reverse jinx gods, do you think that was enough?)
Pick: Patriots
Carolina (-3) vs. Arizona
I've backed Arizona for most of the season. I must have called them "the most complete team in the NFL" about a dozen times since the calendar turned to October. And now they've had back to back games of getting obliterated followed by a near-meltdown the week after, only to survive and advance. In other words, they've been properly humbled. So now it's a little bit concerning that they were beaten so badly to close out the year, and then nearly lost to a pretty ordinary Packer team. They're taking on a Panthers squad that thoroughly dismantled an excellent Seattle team (I'm not concerned about the second half letup; any team in the league would have done the same after jumping out to that lead). So while I'm still a strong supporter (and I'm financially invested in the Cardinals advancing to the Super Bowl to take on New England thanks to a quick trip to the South Point Casino sports book a few weeks back), I can't help but feel like the collision course of Panthers and Patriots is just too strong to get away from at this point. It's taken me all 20 weeks of the NFL season, but I'm finally a firm believer in Carolina. I'll still be rooting for the Cardinals, because the league absolutely deserves to have the two most aggressive coaches dueling two Sundays from now. But it just feels like that storybook season for Cam Newton and company.
Pick: Panthers
BEST BETS: All
LOCK: New England Patriots
LAST WEEK
Overall: 2-2
Best Bets: 2-2
Lock of the Week: 0-1
YEAR TO DATE
Overall: 121-142 (46%)
Best Bets: 31-45 (40%)
Lock of the Week: 9-10 (47%)
POWER RANKINGS
1. Panthers 16-1 (1)
2. Cardinals 14-3 (2)
3. Broncos 13-4 (3)
4. Patriots 13-4 (4)
5. Chiefs 12-6 (5)
6. Seahawks 11-7 (6)
7. Steelers 11-7 (7)
8. Bengals 12-5 (8)
9. Vikings 11-6 (9)
10. Packers 11-7 (10)
11. Jets 10-6 (11)
12. Redskins 9-8 (12)
13. Texans 9-8 (13)
14. Bills 8-8 (14)
15. Rams 7-9 (15)
16. Raiders 7-9 (16)
17. Falcons 8-8 (17)
18. Eagles 7-9 (18)
19. Lions 7-9 (19)
20. Colts 8-8 (20)
21. Saints 7-9 (21)
22. Bears 6-10 (22)
23. Giants 6-10 (23)
24. Dolphins 6-10 (24)
25. Ravens 5-11 (25)
26. Bucs 6-10 (26)
27. Jaguars 5-11 (27)
28. Chargers 4-12 (28)
29. 49ers 5-11 (29)
30. Cowboys 4-12 (30)
31. Browns 3-13 (31)
32. Titans 3-13 (32)
