Strength of Schedule: RBs

An examination of the strength of schedule for running backs

The advantages offered by the Ultimate Strength of Schedule (USOS) when compared to traditional SOS displays are numerous and include (but are not limited to) the following:

  • Fantasy Points Driven
    Fantasy football is all about scoring fantasy points, so USOS is based on fantasy points.
  • Removed Bias Of Schedule
    Consider the following scenario: Defense A faced the Top 16 offenses while Defense B faced the Worst 16 offenses. If both defenses allowed opposing quarterbacks to average 300 fantasy points last season, are they equally strong? Of course not; Defense A is far superior as they faced much better offenses. This bias of schedule has been removed from USOS.
  • Positional Breakdown
    If you are looking for a running back, it's much more relevant to see SOS data for running backs (rather than simply rushing data).
  • Comparison Of 2015 Schedule To 2014 Schedule
    On the surface, a team with an easy schedule at running back should see better running back stats this year. Good schedule = bigger numbers than the year before, right? It seems logical. However, sometimes it's not enough to say that a team has an easy schedule. What if they had an equally easy schedule the season before? Equal schedule = similar numbers as the year before. USOS looks at the differences in schedule from this year compared to last season. An easier set of opponents this year points to increased production. A more difficult set of opponents this season points to decreased production.

Explanation of USOS Tables

Below, you will see tables for each positions USOS. Here is a brief explanation of the make-up of these tables.

The "Team" Column

This is simply the NFL team.

The Values

Each value in the table is the expected number of fantasy points on average or on a per game basis (depending on the column).

The "2015" Column

This is the average expected fantasy points allowed by each team's opponents for this season.

The "Chng" Column

This is the amount of change between the 2015 schedule and the 2014 schedule. A positive value points to an easier SOS than last year while a negative value points to a more difficult SOS compared to last season.

The "EZ" Column

This is the number of easy opponents each team will face this season. An easy opponent is defined as one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) worst defenses. Obviously, it is preferred to have players with as many easy games as possible.

The "TF" Column

This is the number of tough opponents each team will face this season. A tough opponent is defined as one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) best defenses. Obviously, it is preferred to have players with as few tough games as possible.

The "1st3" Column

This is the SOS for the first three weeks of the NFL season. This value is useful to determine how players should be expected to open the season. Players with low values could easily stumble out of the gate.

The "1st5" Column

This is similar to "1st3" except that it covers the first five weeks of the NFL season (note that some teams only play four games in this time frame).

The "Byes" Column

This is the SOS covering the bye weeks. This value is useful to find a complementary player during the byes as you'll need to shuffle players in and out of your starting lineup. A player with an easy schedule during this time would be nice to have.

The "14to16" Column

This is similar to "1st3" except that it specifically covers Week 14 through Week 16.

The "15to17" Column

This is similar to "14to16" except that it specifically covers Week 15 through Week 17.

The "W1" through "W17" Columns

These values are the expected strength of each team's opponent for that particular week (W5 is Week 5, etc). This is very useful when searching for backups for your stud players. The key is to locate players with easy opponents when your star is on a bye.

The Coloring of the Values

The green values indicate that the team has one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) best values in that column. Green was chosen because you can go ahead and take players on that team. The yellow values indicate that the team has one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) worst values in that column. Yellow was chosen because you should use caution before selecting players from that team. (Note: a green / red combo was considered but some people are color blind between those two colors.)

  • Green is a hot team with a good schedule
  • Yellow is a cold team with a bad schedule

Ultimate Strength of Schedule - Running Backs

Team
2015
Chng
EZ
TF
1st3
1st5
Byes
14to16
15to17
Arizona
18.0
10.2%
4
4
20.4
18.4
16.7
20.5
19.0
Atlanta
19.7
-1.0%
7
1
20.9
19.1
19.2
19.6
20.4
Baltimore
17.9
12.1%
2
5
18.9
18.4
17.8
16.6
17.6
Buffalo
18.8
13.1%
3
1
19.1
19.4
19.0
19.2
17.3
Carolina
20.0
9.9%
8
1
19.9
19.8
18.9
22.9
21.3
Chicago
17.7
-4.0%
3
6
16.3
18.0
18.0
18.5
18.4
Cincinnati
16.5
-11.5%
1
8
17.4
17.4
16.3
16.4
15.3
Cleveland
16.6
-10.5%
1
7
19.3
17.5
15.0
18.1
16.6
Dallas
18.9
1.3%
6
3
22.1
21.3
19.6
16.3
15.0
Denver
18.6
10.6%
5
3
15.1
17.8
19.9
19.0
17.3
Detroit
18.8
11.0%
5
3
17.7
16.6
19.0
19.0
20.4
Green Bay
18.1
-0.4%
4
4
18.3
18.0
17.8
18.9
19.0
Houston
19.3
8.3%
4
1
19.0
20.1
19.9
19.1
19.7
Indianapolis
18.5
1.0%
3
3
16.3
17.4
19.5
19.1
18.6
Jacksonville
18.4
-0.8%
2
3
19.0
19.2
16.9
21.8
21.2
Kansas City
17.7
-1.6%
3
6
17.1
18.1
17.0
16.6
18.3
Miami
17.6
-3.5%
4
4
16.5
16.4
18.0
19.2
18.6
Minnesota
18.2
-3.0%
3
5
17.3
16.6
18.7
17.9
19.8
New England
17.6
-2.6%
4
5
16.4
17.5
17.4
17.6
18.1
New Orleans
19.3
-0.3%
6
3
17.3
18.8
19.8
18.3
19.8
NY Giants
19.2
2.8%
7
3
20.0
18.6
18.8
19.7
20.6
NY Jets
18.8
10.1%
4
3
20.5
20.1
18.3
19.5
17.7
Oakland
17.4
-10.3%
1
6
17.2
17.2
17.3
17.0
18.3
Philadelphia
18.3
-3.7%
6
5
20.3
19.6
18.8
14.1
16.4
Pittsburgh
17.5
3.2%
1
5
18.0
16.7
17.5
15.3
15.6
San Diego
18.3
3.2%
4
5
18.5
18.1
18.4
20.0
18.7
San Francisco
17.3
3.1%
3
7
16.5
17.8
17.2
18.2
16.7
Seattle
17.4
0.3%
2
7
18.2
17.8
17.7
16.0
16.5
St. Louis
17.2
0.4%
1
6
15.6
15.8
18.1
17.0
18.4
Tampa Bay
20.0
9.1%
8
2
19.5
19.6
20.2
19.1
18.3
Tennessee
19.4
6.5%
5
1
19.8
18.3
19.8
17.5
18.7
Washington
19.6
15.6%
8
2
18.4
20.2
20.1
18.4
18.7
Average
18.3
0.0%
4
4
18.3
18.3
18.3
18.3
18.3

Week-By-Week Look

Team
W1
W2
W3
W4
W5
W6
W7
W8
W9
Arizona
21.7
20.0
19.4
15.8
15.0
15.0
12.0
20.2
-
Atlanta
21.6
20.4
20.7
17.7
15.3
21.7
19.1
19.4
19.4
Baltimore
14.6
22.6
19.4
15.0
20.2
19.4
13.4
17.6
-
Buffalo
19.6
18.7
19.1
20.4
19.1
19.4
20.4
-
19.1
Carolina
20.4
17.7
21.7
19.4
-
16.5
21.6
19.6
19.0
Chicago
19.0
13.4
16.5
22.6
18.4
15.0
-
21.0
17.6
Cincinnati
22.6
17.6
12.0
18.4
16.5
13.7
-
15.0
20.2
Cleveland
16.1
19.1
22.6
17.6
12.0
14.6
15.8
13.4
19.4
Dallas
20.4
21.6
24.1
21.7
18.7
-
20.4
16.5
21.6
Denver
12.0
18.4
15.0
21.0
22.6
20.2
-
19.0
19.6
Detroit
17.6
21.0
14.6
16.5
13.4
20.0
21.0
18.4
-
Green Bay
20.0
16.5
18.4
19.4
15.8
17.6
-
14.6
19.2
Houston
18.4
19.2
19.4
24.1
19.6
20.4
19.1
19.1
-
Indianapolis
13.7
16.1
19.1
20.4
17.7
18.7
21.7
19.2
14.6
Jacksonville
19.2
19.1
18.7
19.6
19.4
17.7
13.7
-
16.1
Kansas City
17.7
14.6
19.0
19.4
20.0
21.0
15.0
15.0
-
Miami
15.3
20.4
13.7
16.1
-
19.1
17.7
18.7
13.7
Minnesota
19.4
15.0
17.6
14.6
-
18.4
15.0
20.0
15.8
New England
15.0
13.7
20.4
-
20.7
19.6
16.1
19.1
15.3
New Orleans
13.4
19.4
19.2
20.7
21.6
24.1
19.6
20.4
19.1
NY Giants
20.7
24.1
15.3
13.7
19.4
21.6
20.7
21.7
19.4
NY Jets
20.2
19.6
21.6
19.1
-
15.3
18.7
22.6
20.4
Oakland
19.4
12.0
20.2
20.0
14.6
-
17.6
16.1
15.0
Philadelphia
24.1
20.7
16.1
15.3
21.7
20.4
19.2
-
20.7
Pittsburgh
18.7
19.4
15.8
12.0
17.6
13.4
18.4
19.4
22.6
San Diego
15.0
19.4
21.0
20.2
15.0
19.0
22.6
12.0
20.0
San Francisco
21.0
15.0
13.4
19.0
20.4
12.0
16.5
15.8
24.1
Seattle
15.8
19.0
20.0
15.0
19.4
19.2
19.4
20.7
-
St. Louis
16.5
15.3
15.0
13.4
19.0
-
20.2
19.4
21.0
Tampa Bay
19.1
21.7
17.7
19.2
20.4
-
15.3
24.1
20.4
Tennessee
19.4
20.2
19.6
-
13.7
19.1
24.1
17.7
21.7
Washington
19.1
15.8
20.4
21.6
24.1
16.1
19.4
-
18.7
Average
18.3
18.3
18.3
18.3
18.3
18.2
18.3
18.4
19.0

 

Team
W10
W11
W12
W13
W14
W15
W16
W17
Arizona
16.5
19.4
19.4
15.8
21.0
21.6
19.0
16.5
Atlanta
-
19.6
21.0
19.4
19.2
20.4
19.2
21.7
Baltimore
20.4
15.8
20.2
19.1
16.5
18.4
15.0
19.4
Buffalo
16.1
18.7
18.4
17.7
21.6
15.3
20.7
16.1
Carolina
19.1
15.3
20.7
21.7
24.1
20.4
24.1
19.4
Chicago
15.8
14.6
19.0
19.4
15.3
21.0
19.4
15.0
Cincinnati
17.7
13.4
15.8
20.2
15.0
19.4
14.6
12.0
Cleveland
15.0
-
12.0
19.4
19.4
16.5
18.4
15.0
Dallas
19.4
19.1
19.2
15.3
19.0
16.1
13.7
15.3
Denver
18.4
20.0
18.7
17.6
22.6
15.0
19.4
17.6
Detroit
19.0
22.6
21.6
19.0
15.8
21.7
19.4
20.0
Green Bay
15.0
21.0
20.0
15.0
20.7
22.6
13.4
21.0
Houston
19.4
16.1
21.7
13.7
18.7
19.6
19.1
20.4
Indianapolis
-
24.1
19.4
15.0
20.4
17.7
19.1
19.1
Jacksonville
12.0
19.1
17.6
19.1
19.6
24.1
21.7
17.7
Kansas City
14.6
17.6
13.7
22.6
17.6
12.0
20.2
22.6
Miami
21.6
20.7
16.1
12.0
20.4
17.6
19.6
18.7
Minnesota
22.6
19.0
24.1
16.5
13.4
20.0
20.4
19.0
New England
20.4
13.7
14.6
21.6
17.7
19.1
16.1
19.1
New Orleans
15.3
-
17.7
19.2
19.4
15.0
20.4
24.1
NY Giants
18.7
-
15.3
16.1
19.1
19.2
21.0
21.6
NY Jets
13.7
17.7
19.1
20.4
19.1
20.7
18.7
13.7
Oakland
21.0
15.0
19.1
18.4
14.6
19.0
17.6
18.4
Philadelphia
19.1
19.4
15.0
18.7
13.7
13.4
15.3
20.4
Pittsburgh
20.2
-
16.5
19.6
19.4
14.6
12.0
20.2
San Diego
-
18.4
20.4
14.6
18.4
19.1
22.6
14.6
San Francisco
-
16.5
13.4
20.0
20.2
19.4
15.0
15.8
Seattle
13.4
19.4
15.0
21.0
12.0
20.2
15.8
13.4
St. Louis
20.0
12.0
19.4
13.4
15.0
19.4
16.5
19.4
Tampa Bay
20.7
21.6
19.6
24.1
21.7
15.8
20.0
19.2
Tennessee
19.2
20.4
22.6
20.4
16.1
18.7
17.7
19.6
Washington
21.7
19.2
20.4
20.7
20.0
13.7
21.6
20.7
Average
18.1
18.2
18.3
18.3
18.3
18.3
18.3
18.3

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