Strength of Schedule, August: DBs

An examination of the strength of schedule for defensive backs

The advantages offered by the Ultimate Strength of Schedule (USOS) when compared to traditional SOS displays are numerous and include (but are not limited to) the following:

  • Fantasy Points Driven
    Fantasy football is all about scoring fantasy points, so USOS is based on fantasy points.
  • Removed Bias Of Schedule
    Consider the following scenario: Defense A faced the Top 16 offenses while Defense B faced the Worst 16 offenses. If both defenses allowed opposing quarterbacks to average 300 fantasy points last season, are they equally strong? Of course not; Defense A is far superior as they faced much better offenses. This bias of schedule has been removed from USOS.
  • Positional Breakdown 
    If you are looking for a running back, it's much more relevant to see SOS data for running backs (rather than simply rushing data).
  • Comparison Of 2015 Schedule To 2014 Schedule
    On the surface, a team with an easy schedule at running back should see better running back stats this year. Good schedule = bigger numbers than the year before, right? It seems logical. However, sometimes it's not enough to say that a team has an easy schedule. What if they had an equally easy schedule the season before? Equal schedule = similar numbers as the year before. USOS looks at the differences in schedule from this year compared to last season. An easier set of opponents this year points to increased production. A more difficult set of opponents this season points to decreased production.

EXPLANATION OF USOS TABLES

Below, you will see tables for each positions USOS. Here is a brief explanation of the make-up of these tables.

The "Team" Column

This is simply the NFL team.

The Values

Each value in the table is the expected number of fantasy points on average or on a per game basis (depending on the column).

The "2015" Column

This is the average expected fantasy points allowed by each team's opponents for this season.

The "Chng" Column

This is the amount of change between the 2015 schedule and the 2014 schedule. A positive value points to an easier SOS than last year while a negative value points to a more difficult SOS compared to last season.

The "EZ" Column

This is the number of easy opponents each team will face this season. An easy opponent is defined as one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) worst defenses. Obviously, it is preferred to have players with as many easy games as possible.

The "TF" Column

This is the number of tough opponents each team will face this season. A tough opponent is defined as one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) best defenses. Obviously, it is preferred to have players with as few tough games as possible.

The "1st3" Column

This is the SOS for the first three weeks of the NFL season. This value is useful to determine how players should be expected to open the season. Players with low values could easily stumble out of the gate.

The "1st5" Column

This is similar to "1st3" except that it covers the first five weeks of the NFL season (note that some teams only play four games in this time frame).

The "Byes" Column

This is the SOS covering the bye weeks. This value is useful to find a complementary player during the byes as you'll need to shuffle players in and out of your starting lineup. A player with an easy schedule during this time would be nice to have.

The "14to16" Column

This is similar to "1st3" except that it specifically covers Week 14 through Week 16.

The "15to17" Column

This is similar to "14to16" except that it specifically covers Week 15 through Week 17.

The "W1" through "W17" Columns

These values are the expected strength of each team's opponent for that particular week (W5 is Week 5, etc). This is very useful when searching for backups for your stud players. The key is to locate players with easy opponents when your star is on a bye.

The Coloring of the Values

The green values indicate that the team has one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) best values in that column. Green was chosen because you can go ahead and take players on that team. The yellow values indicate that the team has one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) worst values in that column. Yellow was chosen because you should use caution before selecting players from that team. (Note: a green / red combo was considered but some people are color blind between those two colors.)

  • Green is a hot team with a good schedule
  • Yellow is a cold team with a bad schedule

ULTIMATE STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE - DEFENSIVE BACKS

Team
2015
Chng
EZ
TF
1st3
1st5
Byes
14to16
15to17
Arizona
40.4 -5.3% 3 7 44.4 42.5 38.6 44 42.7
Atlanta
44.3 -1.2% 8 2 47.3 46 43.1 43.1 44.7
Baltimore
40.8 7.2% 1 7 41.4 41.3 41.3 38.9 39.9
Buffalo
42.9 2.8% 4 4 42.5 43.1 41.8 47 44.5
Carolina
44.8 5.3% 9 1 44.2 44.5 43.7 47.4 46.8
Chicago
41.3 -6.6% 2 5 40.4 40.3 40.9 43.7 41.7
Cincinnati
39.9 -0.8% 0 7 39.3 38.4 40 42.3 39.3
Cleveland
39.8 -2.8% 0 7 41.6 40.2 39.5 38 38.9
Dallas
44.8 3.9% 9 2 48.5 46.2 43.9 42.4 43.9
Denver
40.8 -6.1% 2 7 37.7 38.8 41.4 41 41.2
Detroit
42.3 1.4% 4 5 41.8 40.8 42.1 41.8 44.4
Green Bay
41.3 -2.7% 3 5 39.9 39.6 41.6 42.9 41.4
Houston
42.8 2% 5 3 42.2 43.8 43.6 41.3 43.2
Indianapolis
42.9 -1.8% 3 1 41.5 42 43.8 43 41.5
Jacksonville
42.4 -1.5% 4 2 41.6 43.1 41.6 46.6 45.2
Kansas City
41.4 2.4% 1 4 42.6 42.4 41.9 38.6 38.3
Miami
42.6 -0.7% 4 3 44.2 43.9 42.7 45.3 42.2
Minnesota
42.4 4% 4 3 41.2 41.9 42.4 45.7 45.4
New England
43.9 8.2% 4 0 42.8 43 44.5 41.4 42.2
New Orleans
44.6 -0.6% 8 1 43.8 45.1 45.3 43.5 44.1
NY Giants
44.4 -1.6% 6 2 45.8 43.9 44.2 41.7 44
NY Jets
43 1.2% 4 3 45.1 44.8 42.7 40.6 41.2
Oakland
41 -2.3% 1 6 37.1 40.3 42.3 43 41.3
Philadelphia
44.4 -4.7% 7 1 44.6 45.6 44.8 43.9 46
Pittsburgh
39.4 -7.5% 1 9 38.9 38.6 39.1 38.6 39
San Diego
41.2 -2.9% 1 6 39.4 40.1 41.1 41.4 43.2
San Francisco
40.7 -0.9% 3 8 41.7 43.1 40.4 39.6 39.1
Seattle
40.7 4.7% 1 6 42.1 41.1 41.5 37 40.3
St. Louis
40.8 1.8% 3 6 41.6 42.2 40.3 40.5 40.3
Tampa Bay
44.8 2.4% 9 1 42.8 43 46 43.7 42.2
Tennessee
43.3 5.4% 6 2 43.5 43 43.7 41 41.7
Washington
44.8 0.6% 8 2 43.2 45.4 45.3 46 45.2
Average
42.3 0% 4 4 42.3 42.4 42.3 42.3 42.3

Week-By-Week Look

Team
W1
W2
W3
W4
W5
W6
W7
W8
W9
Arizona
47.2 45.9 40.2 38 40.9 42.8 33.6 39.5 -
Atlanta
50.4 47.9 43.5 41.2 46.9 47.2 39.8 45.4 40.2
Baltimore
44 41.8 38.3 42.8 39.5 40.2 43.3 42.6 -
Buffalo
45.5 38.6 43.6 47.9 39.8 38.3 44.2 - 43.6
Carolina
44.2 41.2 47.2 45.4 - 35.2 50.4 45.5 42.5
Chicago
42.5 43.3 35.2 41.8 38.7 40.9 - 38.9 42.6
Cincinnati
41.8 42.6 33.6 38.7 35.2 41.6 - 42.8 39.5
Cleveland
43.1 39.8 41.8 42.6 33.6 44 38 43.3 38.3
Dallas
47.9 50.4 47.1 47.2 38.6 - 47.9 35.2 50.4
Denver
33.6 38.7 40.9 38.9 41.8 39.5 - 42.5 45.5
Detroit
42.6 38.9 44 35.2 43.3 45.9 38.9 38.7 -
Green Bay
45.9 35.2 38.7 40.2 38 42.6 - 44 42.6
Houston
38.7 42.6 45.4 47.1 45.5 44.2 43.6 39.8 -
Indianapolis
41.6 43.1 39.8 44.2 41.2 38.6 47.2 42.6 44
Jacksonville
42.6 43.6 38.6 45.5 45.4 41.2 41.6 - 43.1
Kansas City
41.2 44 42.5 38.3 45.9 38.9 42.8 40.9 -
Miami
46.9 44.2 41.6 43.1 - 39.8 41.2 38.6 41.6
Minnesota
40.2 40.9 42.6 44 - 38.7 40.9 45.9 38
New England
42.8 41.6 44.2 - 43.5 45.5 43.1 43.6 46.9
New Orleans
43.3 45.4 42.6 43.5 50.4 47.1 45.5 47.9 39.8
NY Giants
43.5 47.1 46.9 41.6 40.2 50.4 43.5 47.2 45.4
NY Jets
39.5 45.5 50.4 43.6 - 46.9 38.6 41.8 44.2
Oakland
38.3 33.6 39.5 45.9 44 - 42.6 43.1 42.8
Philadelphia
47.1 43.5 43.1 46.9 47.2 47.9 42.6 - 43.5
Pittsburgh
38.6 40.2 38 33.6 42.6 43.3 38.7 38.3 41.8
San Diego
40.9 38.3 38.9 39.5 42.8 42.5 41.8 33.6 45.9
San Francisco
38.9 42.8 43.3 42.5 47.9 33.6 35.2 38 47.1
Seattle
38 42.5 45.9 40.9 38.3 42.6 40.2 43.5 -
St. Louis
35.2 46.9 42.8 43.3 42.5 - 39.5 40.2 38.9
Tampa Bay
39.8 47.2 41.2 42.6 44.2 - 46.9 47.1 47.9
Tennessee
45.4 39.5 45.5 - 41.6 43.6 47.1 41.2 47.2
Washington
43.6 38 47.9 50.4 47.1 43.1 45.4 - 38.6
Average
42.3 42.3 42.3 42.6 42.4 42.4 42.3 41.9 43.2

 

Team
W10
W11
W12
W13
W14
W15
W16
W17
Arizona
35.2 38.3 40.2 38 38.9 50.4 42.5 35.2
Atlanta
- 45.5 38.9 45.4 42.6 44.2 42.6 47.2
Baltimore
44.2 38 39.5 43.6 35.2 38.7 42.8 38.3
Buffalo
43.1 38.6 38.7 41.2 50.4 46.9 43.5 43.1
Carolina
39.8 46.9 43.5 47.2 47.1 47.9 47.1 45.4
Chicago
38 44 42.5 40.2 46.9 38.9 45.4 40.9
Cincinnati
41.2 43.3 38 39.5 42.8 40.2 44 33.6
Cleveland
42.8 - 33.6 38.3 40.2 35.2 38.7 42.8
Dallas
45.4 43.6 42.6 46.9 42.5 43.1 41.6 46.9
Denver
38.7 45.9 38.6 42.6 41.8 42.8 38.3 42.6
Detroit
42.5 41.8 50.4 42.5 38 47.2 40.2 45.9
Green Bay
40.9 38.9 45.9 40.9 43.5 41.8 43.3 38.9
Houston
38.3 43.1 47.2 41.6 38.6 45.5 39.8 44.2
Indianapolis
- 47.1 45.4 42.8 44.2 41.2 43.6 39.8
Jacksonville
33.6 39.8 42.6 39.8 45.5 47.1 47.2 41.2
Kansas City
44 42.6 41.6 41.8 42.6 33.6 39.5 41.8
Miami
50.4 43.5 43.1 33.6 47.9 42.6 45.5 38.6
Minnesota
41.8 42.5 47.1 35.2 43.3 45.9 47.9 42.5
New England
47.9 41.6 44 50.4 41.2 39.8 43.1 43.6
New Orleans
46.9 - 41.2 42.6 45.4 40.9 44.2 47.1
NY Giants
38.6 - 46.9 43.1 43.6 42.6 38.9 50.4
NY Jets
41.6 41.2 43.6 47.9 39.8 43.5 38.6 41.6
Oakland
38.9 40.9 39.8 38.7 44 42.5 42.6 38.7
Philadelphia
43.6 45.4 40.9 38.6 41.6 43.3 46.9 47.9
Pittsburgh
39.5 - 35.2 45.5 38.3 44 33.6 39.5
San Diego
- 38.7 44.2 44 38.7 43.6 41.8 44
San Francisco
- 35.2 43.3 45.9 39.5 38.3 40.9 38
Seattle
43.3 40.2 42.8 38.9 33.6 39.5 38 43.3
St. Louis
45.9 33.6 38.3 43.3 40.9 45.4 35.2 40.2
Tampa Bay
43.5 50.4 45.5 47.1 47.2 38 45.9 42.6
Tennessee
42.6 44.2 41.8 44.2 43.1 38.6 41.2 45.5
Washington
47.2 42.6 47.9 43.5 45.9 41.6 50.4 43.5
Average
42.1 42.1 42.3 42.3 42.3 42.3 42.3 42.3

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