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Knowing the expected ownership rates heading into a weekend of FanDuel contests is a powerful tool. Knowledge is power. There will be heavily-used players and underrated options from which to pick and choose quality lineups. Cash games are the perfect place for using a bevy of highly-owned options and playing it safe. The cash line is simply finishing above the average score (typically in 110-120 point range). In a tournament field (GPP), finishing in the money takes more risk and variance to achieve a high mark worthy of cashing. There is no prize difference between finishing middle of the pack or dead last in GPP contests. Here are the strategies centered around player ownership for FanDuel this week:
*Collected ownership data from Thursday Night locking contests*
CONSENSUS PLAYS OF WEEK
Philip Rivers is once again at the top of the quarterback ownership, this week being joined by Andy Dalton and Cam Newton -- all above 8% by early roster locks. Rivers has the best matchup of the three, getting a Baltimore pass defense who has allowed multiple touchdowns in five of the last six weeks, including four games of at least 340 yards, including Colin Kaepernick in Week 6. The Steelers have been much stingier with opposing quarterbacks (five touchdowns allowed the past five weeks) giving some pause to the white hot Andy Dalton.
Todd Gurley is the locked and loaded top-owned running back for Week 8. The volume has been eye-popping since returning from his ACL recovery, and the Rams have a positive game script in the making against San Francisco in the home dome. Justin Forsett and Devonta Freeman are also highly-owned, both above 16%. Tampa Bay has not been an outstanding matchup for running backs of late (no touchdowns on the ground since Week 3 with only Jonathan Stewart hitting even 50 yards on the dot, but Freeman has been on a historic run of production. The Chargers have been generous throughout the season to running backs and Justin Forsett gets them at home in Week 8. LeVeon Bell, James Starks, and Latavius Murray have each hit at least 85 yards with a rushing score the past three weeks.
Stefon Diggs has emerged as the top receiver in Minnesota and the Bears have allowed the second-most touchdowns to receivers this season (11) and are a top-5 overall matchup. The Ravens are just as good of a matchup and Keenan Allen gets the pass defense who allowed quality games to Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, Travis Benjamin, Marvin Jones, Michael Crabtree among others this season.
Tyler Eifert leads the way with tight end ownership this week, drawing the Steelers woeful tight end points allowed. Pittsburgh allowed multiple touchdowns to Antonio Gates and Rob Gronkowski this season, the only two viable tight ends on their schedule through seven weeks.
At kicker, Josh Lambo is the most-owned option with a modest team total of 23.25 by Vegas as a slight road underdog.
The Rams are the top-owned defense for the second week in a row, drawing San Francisco in St.Louis. At 27%, the Rams triple the Cardinals and Panthers rounding out the top-3 options.
AGAINST THE GRAIN
Eli Manning at 4% offers a quality matchup against a New Orleans pass defense which has allowed at least 295 yards and two touchdowns each of the past three weeks, including nearly 40 points to an Eagles offense with Sam Bradford throwing for 333 yards. Ryan Fitzpatrick (5% ownership) is another quality option. The Raiders have only held down Peyton Manning this season to fewer than two touchdowns (not much of an achievement) with 250+ yards allowed through the air each week. Ryan Fitzpatrick stacked with Brandon Marshall and/or Eric Decker is a viable tournament core lineup.
Duke Johnson Jr and Charles Sims are two pass-catching options likely to see negative game scripts this week with ownership rates from Thursday night of less than 1%. Sims is averaging nearly four targets per game and has hit double-digit carries the past two weeks as Tampa Bay's run game has been effective. Johnson has 36 targets over the last five games. The Browns are one of the bigger underdogs of the week, projecting Johnson for another high-volume week.
Not only is Demaryius Thomas reasonably priced at $8,100 and 3% owned, the Packers are a neutral matchup. Touchdowns have been scarce for receivers against Green Bay (four on the season), but Keenan Allen had 157 yards, and Jeremy Maclin notched 141 back in Week 3. Tedd Ginn at 5% is an intriguing combination of ownership and being the top target in Carolina's wide receiver corps. Working in Ginn's favor is the Colts pass defense, a top-10 play over the past three weeks against receivers, allowing big games to Brandin Cooks, Danny Amendola, and DeAndre Hopkins.
Delanie Walker has seen at least six targets for four games running, including 19 over the past two weeks. The Titans' wide receiver group is doing little and gone 26 receptions without a touchdown since Week 1. At 3% ownership Walker adds uniqueness for tournament lineups.
Matt Bryant is a quality combination of low ownership (4%), kicking in a home dome, and Atlanta having the highest Vegas team total outside of the Patriots off the board with Thursday's matchup.
At 2% ownership and $4,500 the Titans are a well-projected defense by Footballguys for Week 8. Tennessee's strength as a defense is through the air, which without Arian Foster will be the method of attack for the Texans.
EXAMPLE GPP ROSTER 1
Position | Player | Salary | Own% |
QB | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 7400 | 4.7 |
RB | Todd Gurley | 8100 | 40.2 |
RB | Justin Forsett | 6900 | 16.3 |
WR | Brandon Marshall | 8300 | 7.0 |
WR | Eric Decker | 6400 | 6.1 |
WR | Keenan Allen | 8000 | 12.8 |
TE | Delanie Walker | 5400 | 3.0 |
K | Graham Gano | 4700 | 2.3 |
DST | Carolina Panthers | 4800 | 7.7 |
60000 | 11.1 |
The Jets stack is a sparsely-owned one. Decker and Marshall are the only significant passing targets for Fitzpatrick. Marshall and Decker have scored touchdowns in the same game three times this season. The Panthers are sizeable favorites at home against the Colts. This lineup is a quality blend of ownership 'chalk' at running back and with Keenan Allen along with the Jets stack and Panthers' special teams.
EXAMPLE GPP ROSTER 2
Position | Player | Salary | Own% |
QB | Teddy Bridgewater | 6900 | 2.3 |
RB | Devonta Freeman | 9100 | 17.1 |
RB | Todd Gurley | 8100 | 40.2 |
WR | Stefon Diggs | 6700 | 29.5 |
WR | Ted Ginn Jr Jr. | 5300 | 4.6 |
WR | Mike Evans | 7800 | 7.4 |
TE | Tyler Eifert | 6000 | 18.5 |
K | Matt Bryant | 4800 | 3.7 |
DST | St Louis Rams | 5100 | 27.2 |
59800 | 16.7 |
The Bears have allowed three touchdowns or more to opposing quarterbacks in 3-of-6 games this year, including to the previously-struggling Matthew Stafford last week. The Diggs-Bridgewater stack is a low-ownership one for less than $14,000 in cap space. Going with Ted Ginn Jr Jr. at WR3 allows for two premium plays at running back in addition to Mike Evans without Vincent Jackson or Louis Murphy in the lineup against Atlanta.
CASH GAMES: GO WITH THE HERD
Position | Player | Salary | Own% |
QB | Cam Newton | 8000 | 8.3 |
RB | Todd Gurley | 8100 | 40.2 |
RB | Justin Forsett | 6900 | 16.3 |
WR | Stefon Diggs | 6700 | 29.5 |
WR | Keenan Allen | 8000 | 12.8 |
WR | Steve Smith | 6700 | 11.7 |
TE | Tyler Eifert | 6000 | 18.5 |
K | Josh Lambo | 4500 | 7.3 |
DST | St Louis Rams | 5100 | 27.2 |
60000 | 19.1 |
As opposed to the last couple weeks, the most owned players fit relatively well under the salary cap. Devonta Freeman, the No. 2 owned running back of the week, is the notable exception. A downshift to Forsett clears more than $2,000 of cap. Diggs-Allen-Smith represent the top-3 receivers of the week. Lambo at $4,500 helps the cap as well compared to a $5,000-level kicker like Brandon McManus also with high ownership
.