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Knowing the expected ownership rates heading into a weekend of FanDuel contests is a powerful tool. Knowledge is power. There will be heavily-used players and underrated options from which to pick and choose quality lineups. Cash games are the perfect place for using a bevy of highly-owned options and playing it safe. The cash line is simply finishing above the average score (typically in 110-120 point range). In a tournament field (GPP), finishing in the money takes more risk and variance to achieve a high mark worthy of cashing. There is no prize difference between finishing middle of the pack or dead last in GPP contests. Here are the strategies centered around player ownership for FanDuel this week:
*Collected ownership data from Thursday Night locking contests*
CONSENSUS PLAYS OF WEEK
Another week, another reminder it is Tom Brady's world and we just live in it for FanDuel ownership. Brady, joined by Andy Dalton, are the clear top-tier of quarterbacks owned in Week 6. Both are hot and the Patriots are projected at 31.5 points as a team on the road in Indianapolis.
Dion Lewis, like Devonta Freeman, continues to be highly owned week after week. Lewis' salary is still affordable at $7,200 and outside of clear cruise control late in games is dominating the backfield snap count in New England.
Chris Ivory is back and the Jets get a home game against beatable Washington, a game script Ivory and the Jets should control. At 14% for early ownership, Ivory is another Dion Lewis-like affordable back with a high floor and ceiling at $7,300.
Julian Edelman and DeAndre Hopkins both eclipsed the rarified air of at least 30% ownership at wide receiver this week. Outside of Rob Gronkowski, there are few threats to Edelman's target volume. Edelman had seen eight or more targets in each game until they took took their foot off the gas against Dallas. Of course Edelman still put up 120 yards and a score by that point last week. Hopkins is lapping the field in terms of targets this season, only Julio Jones is within even 15 targets of Hopkins through five weeks. Hopkins has seen 13 or more targets in all but one contest (Week 2 where he saw 11).
Coming off strong games in Week 5, Antonio Gates AND Tyler Eifert surpassed the immortal Rob Gronkowski in early ownership for tight ends this week. Gronkowski has uncharacteristically gone two straight games without a touchdown and still costs $2,700 and $2,200 more than Gates and Eifert respectively. Gates is back and the San Diego passing game will be in full effect in Green Bay and as heavy underdogs this week. Eifert is on the road as well, as smaller favorites, in Buffalo. Eifert leads the position with five touchdowns this season, a Gronkowski-like 21% touchdown rate, and two monster games under his belt.
After being edged out by Cairo Santos in Week 5, Stephen Gostkowski is back on top of kicker ownership at 15%. The team total and a dome setting is enough to make Gostkowski a strong bet to hit 2-3x value for $5,100.
The Broncos for a second straight week mark the clear top defense in ownership, this time at a hefty 25%. The Jets, for $200 less at $4,800, hit the 15% mark as their own second tier. The Jets are at home against offensively-challenged Washington, while Denver travels to Cleveland. Washington and Cleveland are two of the bottom three team totals by Vegas of the week, the other being Carolina traveling to Seattle, whose defense was sparely owned at 3%.
AGAINST THE GRAIN
Teddy Bridgewater: The Chiefs are THE matchup for opposing quarterbacks and Bridgewater was 1% owned at $6,600. The downside fear is low volume as Minnesota may salt away an easy victory, but Vegas projects a top-6 team total at a hearty 24 points for the Vikings this week. Bridgewater adds the rushing factor (15 yards-per-game this season, similar to 2014) and needs around 15 FanDuel points to pay off value-wise.
Duke Johnson Jr: After being invisible in the pass game the first two games of the season, Johnson has seen 25 targets the last three weeks. Against Denver's lock-down pass defense, betting on Johnson makes sense as a viable underneath option for Josh McCown in a likely comeback effort. At $5,900, Johnson was minimally owned at less than 1% in Thursday contests.
Javorius Allen: Justin Forsett's status is a true game-time decision for Week 6. Monitor his status leading up to kickoff, but it is a late one, so Allen represents an upside shot at $5,100 surrounded by a stud-filled lineup otherwise. The 49ers offer a positive game script and running back matchup for Baltimore this week.
Demaryius Thomas sits at 2% ownership and $8,300 salary. He is a prime touchdown regression candidate with one score on 38 receptions this season, far below his career rate. Thomas has seen eight or more targets in each game this season.
Mike Wallace is still minimally-priced at $5,400 and possesses 1% early ownership. The Chiefs are THE matchup for wide receivers to exploit and Wallace is coming off a season-high 10 targets and 8-83-1 stat line.
Marquess Wilson: The Lions are a top matchup for wide receivers and 2% ownership. Both Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal were limited even at the end of the week of practices. Martellus Bennett was also added to the injury report late in the week. Monitor their status on Sunday as Wilson would be an auto-play if one or two sit this week.
Larry Donnell: Monitor Odell Beckham's status heading into the weekend, but Donnell could be the best passing game target of receivers and tight ends for Eli Manning on Monday Night against the Eagles. Philadelphia is an outstanding matchup for opposing tight ends to exploit to boot. His 2% ownership and $5,300 price are ideal for lineups.
Adam Vinatieri stands out at 1% ownership. The Colts have a high team total for a projected defeat (23.5) and, after a slow start in the first two weeks (0-2 on field goals, one extra point), Vinatieri is back on track with 5-of-5 on field goals the past two weeks.
Mentioned above, Seattle's defense faces a low team total in Carolina, and has one of the best homefield advantages in the NFL. At 3% ownership, Seattle is an opportunity to roster a top unit, at home, plus add uniqueness to the lineup.
EXAMPLE GPP ROSTER 1
Position | Player | Salary | Own% |
QB | Teddy Bridgewater | 6600 | 1.2 |
RB | Dion Lewis | 7200 | 20.7 |
RB | Christopher Ivory | 7300 | 13.9 |
WR | Mike Wallace | 5400 | 1.3 |
WR | Demaryius Thomas | 8300 | 2.0 |
WR | Allen Robinson | 6700 | 20.6 |
TE | Rob Gronkowski | 8200 | 10.9 |
K | Adam Vinatieri | 5000 | 1.4 |
DST | Seattle Seahawks | 5000 | 3.3 |
59700 | 8.4 |
This Bridgewater-Wallace stack leans on the outstanding matchup against Kansas City plus the Vikings coming off a bye week. Demaryius Thomas is a prime touchdown candidate after the slow start as well as Rob Gronkowski post-two scoreless games as well. Dion Lewis and Christopher Ivory mix in high-floor and high-owned running backs.
EXAMPLE GPP ROSTER 2
Position | Player | Salary | Own% |
QB | Tom Brady | 9000 | 18.5 |
RB | Duke Johnson Jr | 5900 | 0.9 |
RB | Danny Woodhead | 6000 | 4.6 |
WR | Julian Edelman | 7900 | 34.6 |
WR | Allen Robinson | 6700 | 20.6 |
WR | Eric Decker | 6100 | 8.4 |
TE | Rob Gronkowski | 8200 | 10.9 |
K | Adam Vinatieri | 5000 | 1.4 |
DST | Seattle Seahawks | 5000 | 3.3 |
59800 | 11.5 |
This alternate lineup features the Patriots' pass game trio of Brady-Edelman-Gronkowski. Robinson and Decker are big play threats needing 18-20 points to hit tournament 3x value. As mentioned above, Seattle and Vinatieri are straight-forward matchup plays with low early ownership.
CASH GAMES: GO WITH THE HERD
Position | Player | Salary | Own% |
QB | Andy Dalton | 7600 | 15.7 |
RB | Danny Woodhead | 6000 | 4.6 |
RB | Dion Lewis | 7200 | 20.7 |
WR | Julian Edelman | 7900 | 34.6 |
WR | Larry Fitzgerald | 7500 | 22.0 |
WR | DeAndre Hopkins | 8500 | 32.7 |
TE | Antonio Gates | 5500 | 34.9 |
K | Brandon McManus | 4800 | 11.9 |
DST | Denver Broncos | 5000 | 25.1 |
60000 | 22.5 |
For a second straight week, the salary cap was a significant issue fitting in all the most-owned players. By going with the $1,400 cheaper Andy Dalton (over Tom Brady) at quarterback, the top-owned wide receiver trio fit into the budget. Danny Woodhead as a signfiicant underdog in Green Bay is a logical fill-in for the higher owned Christopher Ivory, and Antonio Gates' salary allows for flexibility for someone like Rob Gronkowski as well.