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With ownership information extinct without Thursday contests in the playoffs, this weekly column takes a turn. Instead, I will focus on cash game strategies for this weekend's slate of games. My exposure rates are built upon how the value tiers lay out from Footballguys projections within each position plus Austin Lee's terrific strength of schedule data.
Quarterbacks
Player | Salary | Value | TGT |
Cam Newton | 8500 | 26 | 45 |
Tom Brady | 8100 | 23 | 30 |
Carson Palmer | 7700 | 22 | 20 |
Peyton Manning | 6700 | 20 | 5 |
There is little reason to risk rolling out Peyton Manning this weekout outside of the rogue tournament stack or two for variance. Newton and Brady are strong plays with the two best matchups of the week by strength of schedule and natural high-floor plays.
Running Backs
Player | Salary | Value | TGT |
David Johnson | 8000 | 19 | 65 |
Jonathan Stewart | 7000 | 17 | 55 |
C.J. Anderson | 6300 | 15 | 40 |
Ronnie Hillman | 5700 | 15 | 35 |
James White | 6400 | 12 | 5 |
The Patriots backs have the worst matchup of the week plus are murky usage plays to boot. David Johnson and Jonathan Steweart are the strongest options in terms of workload and enjoy the best of the stingy matchups. Use the Johnson-Stewart pairing liberally in lineups.
Wide Receivers
Player | Salary | Value | TGT |
Michael Floyd | 7500 | 18 | 55 |
Demaryius Thomas | 7600 | 17 | 50 |
Emmanuel Sanders | 7400 | 16 | 45 |
John Brown | 6500 | 16 | 45 |
Julian Edelman | 7800 | 15 | 40 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 8000 | 14 | 35 |
Ted Ginn Jr | 6200 | 14 | 30 |
Other than Carolina (the stingy matchup of the week plus uncertain floor of targets), the other three teams offer strong plays at receiver. I would recommend the Denver options less than the value metrics indicate, but certainly in the mix for tournaments.
Tight Ends
Player | Salary | Value | TGT |
Greg Olsen | 7000 | 19 | 55 |
Rob Gronkowski | 8900 | 16 | 40 |
Owen Daniels | 5000 | 10 | 5 |
Greg Olsen easily has the best matchup of the week and is nearly $2,000 less than Rob Gronkowski. Owen Daniels only makes the list with a quality matchup for minimal exposure.
Kickers
Player | Salary | Value | TGT |
Graham Gano | 4700 | 20 | 40 |
Chandler Catanzaro | 4600 | 17 | 25 |
Stephen Gostkowski | 5100 | 17 | 25 |
Brandon McManus | 5000 | 15 | 10 |
Defenses
Player | Salary | Value | TGT |
New England Patriots | 4600 | 24 | 50 |
Carolina Panthers | 5100 | 17 | 20 |
Denver Broncos | 4800 | 17 | 20 |
Arizona Cardinals | 4900 | 14 | 10 |
Example Lineup
Position | Player | Salary | Value |
QB | Cam Newton | 8500 | 26.1 |
RB | David Johnson | 8000 | 18.5 |
RB | Jonathan Stewart | 7000 | 17.1 |
WR | Michael Floyd | 7500 | 17.5 |
WR | John Brown | 6500 | 16.0 |
WR | Ted Ginn Jr | 6200 | 14.0 |
TE | Greg Olsen | 7000 | 18.7 |
K | Chandler Catanzaro | 4600 | 17.0 |
DST | New England Patriots | 4600 | 24.3 |
59900 | 19.1 |
This value-based lineup is dominated for the NFC side of the week. Mixing in C.J. Anderson allows for Julian Edelman exposure as a variation. The Patriots defense is one of the largest ownership edges over the rest of the position. Going for Catanzaro at kicker over Gano is needed with the single-team limitation for lineup submission.