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Knowing the expected ownership rates heading into a weekend of FanDuel contests is a powerful tool. Knowledge is power. There will be heavily used players and underrated options from which to pick and choose quality lineups. Cash games are the perfect place for using a bevy of highly owned options and playing it safe. The cash line is simply finishing above the average score (typically in 110-120 point range). In a tournament field (GPP), finishing in the money takes more risk and variance to achieve a high mark worthy of cashing. There is no prize difference between finishing middle of the pack or dead last in GPP contests. Here are the strategies centered around player ownership for FanDuel this week:
*Collected ownership data from Thursday Night locking contests*
CONSENSUS PLAYS OF WEEK
The top tier of quarterbacks is crowded this week, a tight quartet of options between 8.9% and 10% ownership. Russell Wilson leads the pack and is also the top Footballguys H-Value projection against Baltimore. Wilson has been red hot with two straight weeks of at least 4.4x value. Of Jameis Winston, Blake Bortles, and Cam Newton filling out the rest of the top-owned quarterbacks, Winston stands out. After the Saints played Carolina tough at home last week, they venture out of the dome to Tampa Bay. The Saints have been horrific (being nice) against opposing pass games, making quarterbacks an auto-start against them. They allowed - on average - three passing scores a game and more than 300 yards. Even after a poor start to the season, they are even worst of late. In the last five games, four quarterbacks have thrown for at least four touchdowns, including Eli Manning, Marcus Mariota, and Kirk Cousins in succession. Winston has his full complement of weapons back as icing on the cake.
Thomas Rawls leads the running back pack at 21.6% early ownership. The Ravens are unlikely to force Seattle into a negative game script and Rawls has been seeing consistent volume without Marshawn Lynch in the lineup. Rawls has hit at least 2x value each of the past three weeks. LeSean McCoy against his former team and Doug Martin are also highly-owned, Martin having the better H-Value from Footballguys and the quality matchup against New Orleans.
Odell Beckham Jr, Allen Robinson, and Sammy Watkins headline the wide receivers - all hovering in the 20% range of ownership. Beckham is also the top H-Value Footballguys projection. Robinson and Watkins are far less preferred based on their salary and projections. Working in Watkins' favor, the Eagles have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing receivers, the most touchdowns, and the most receptions. The past two weeks have been Watkins' best two-game run of FanDuel value this season.
Greg Olsen and Delanie Walker top the tight end position in ownership for the second week in a row. Both are primary options in their wide receiver-lacking pass games. Austin Seferian-Jenkins was the surprise No.3 owned tight end at 10.7%. Seferian-Jenkins saw six targets on minimal snaps and New Orleans is an ideal matchup to get back on track since returning from a prolonged injury absence. At $5,500, Seferian-Jenkins is one of the few ways to save salary, while maintaining a quality usage floor at the position.
Seattle and Kansas City are head and shoulders above the pack at defense at 18% and 15%. Baltimore has been relatively stingy for opposing fantasy defenses, making Seattle at their premium salary less preferred than the Chiefs. Kansas City gets San Diego, a team that has given up multiple sacks in 9-of-11 games and managed barely 200 yards of offense and three points against the Chiefs - at home mind you - back in Week 11. Six kickers hover in the 5-10% ownership range. Cairo Santos is the chalk choice with the Chiefs top Vegas team total as healthy favorites.
AGAINST THE GRAIN
Surprisingly, Alex Smith has low early ownership at a shade more than 2%. The Footballguys projections like Smith quite a bit and his consistency this season as been outstanding. Just once Smith has produced below 1.9x value, way back in Week 2. Stacking Travis Kelce or Jeremy Maclin with Smith is a quality play this week.
DeAngelo Williams and T.J. Yeldon are quality options less than 10% owned. Williams at $7,300 saves some cap space from higher owned LeSean McCoy and Doug Martin. Williams rarely leaves the field on a quality offense and the Steelers-Bengals tilt has the second-highest Vegas total of the week. Yeldon is coming off his best game of the season at 21.6 FanDuel points, 3.5x value. The Colts are a plus matchup for running backs, giving up 97 and 134 yards to Doug Martin and DeAngelo Williams on the ground the past two weeks respectively.
Eric Decker and Anquan Boldin highlight the low-ownership wide receivers. Boldin is one of the very few options under $6,000 with a decent Footballguys projection and usage floor. For Boldin, the Browns are a top-10 receiver matchup and have allowed quality games by Kamar Aiken (twice), Marvin Jones, and Michael Floyd this season who are not weekly strong plays. Boldin has hit 2x value 4-of-6 weeks of late. For Decker, the Jets consistently funnel their passing game through Decker and Brandon Marshall. Decker has hit at least 2x value in 9-of-10 games since Week 1 and the Titans have allowed four 100-yard receiving performances in the last three weeks.
Travis Kelce has been an up-and-down proposition this season, but gets a top-10 tight end matchup (San Diego) this week. Kelce has had tepid results since a huge Week 1, but this is the week to fire him up with more confidence. Kansas City has the top Vegas team total and are heavy favorites.
Mike Nugent is a solid low-ownership option at kicker. The Bengals are a top-5 Vegas total and Nugent has a top-5 Footballguys H-Value. The Jets stand out on defense with 3.4% ownership against Tennessee. The Titans are allowing the third-most points to opposing defenses, including the second-most turnovers in the NFL, averaging two per game. Their 39 sacks allowed are also in the top-3.
EXAMPLE GPP ROSTER 1
Position | Player | Salary | Own% |
QB | Jameis Winston | 7800 | 9.6 |
RB | DeAngelo Williams | 7300 | 8.7 |
RB | T.J. Yeldon | 6400 | 7.3 |
WR | Alshon Jeffery | 7500 | 11.5 |
WR | Brandon Marshall | 8200 | 13.9 |
WR | Mike Evans | 8000 | 13.1 |
TE | Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 5500 | 10.7 |
K | Mike Nugent | 4800 | 3.0 |
DST | New York Jets | 4400 | 6.0 |
59900 | 9.3 |
Winston and Evans form a high-floor stack. Going with Yeldon at RB2 allows for high-volume options at wide receiver in Jeffery and Marshall. Shifting down at either spot can open up high-priced options at tight end, but Austin Seferian-Jenkins is a quality bet at a low salary to consider in all contest types this week.
EXAMPLE GPP ROSTER 2
Position | Player | Salary | Own% |
QB | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 7800 | 3.1 |
RB | T.J. Yeldon | 6400 | 7.3 |
RB | Shaun Draughn | 6500 | 13.1 |
WR | Brandon Marshall | 8200 | 13.9 |
WR | Eric Decker | 7300 | 5.5 |
WR | Mike Evans | 8000 | 13.1 |
TE | Travis Kelce | 6000 | 6.7 |
K | Cairo Santos | 4700 | 8.1 |
DST | New York Jets | 4800 | 3.4 |
59700 | 8.2 |
The Jets are an appealing stack this week as well with most of their production going through Decker and Marshall. Decker and Fitzpatrick are lightly-owned surprisingly. Two high-volume running backs at a low price point allow for Mike Evans to be added, over someone like Anquan Boldin, to the wide receiver group.
CASH GAMES: GO WITH THE HERD
Position | Player | Salary | Own% |
QB | Jameis Winston | 7800 | 9.6 |
RB | Thomas Rawls | 7400 | 21.6 |
RB | Doug Martin | 8000 | 15.6 |
WR | Alshon Jeffery | 7500 | 11.5 |
WR | Sammy Watkins | 7200 | 19.9 |
WR | Doug Baldwin | 6800 | 17.4 |
TE | Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 5500 | 10.7 |
K | Cairo Santos | 4700 | 8.1 |
DST | Kansas City Chiefs | 4800 | 15.1 |
59700 | 14.4 |
The 14.4% overall average ownership for this lineup is on the low side compared to recent weeks. The high salaries of the high-owned receivers make downshifting at the position a necessity here. With David Johnson out of the picture, saving signfiicant capital at running back is more difficult for Sunday contests.