Photo: Jeremy Brevard, USA Today Sports

Knowing the expected ownership rates heading into a weekend of FanDuel contests is a powerful tool. Knowledge is power. There will be heavily used players and underrated options from which to pick and choose quality lineups. Cash games are the perfect place for using a bevy of highly owned options and playing it safe. The cash line is simply finishing above the average score (typically in 110-120 point range). In a tournament field (GPP), finishing in the money takes more risk and variance to achieve a high mark worthy of cashing. There is no prize difference between finishing middle of the pack or dead last in GPP contests. Here are the strategies centered around player ownership for FanDuel this week:

*Collected ownership data from Thursday Night locking contests*

CONSENSUS PLAYS OF WEEK

Cam Newton is the clear quarterback of choice for Week 13. The Saints turn bad quarterbacks into fantasy-viable ones and average options into must-plays. Newton has been one of the hottest signal-callers and now gets the most attractive matchup. The rest of the quarterbacks are fighting for No.2 this week, namely Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger, and Tom Brady in the 5-10% range.

DeAngelo Williams headlines running backs at more than 25%, while Jonathan Stewart, Doug Martin, and David Johnson form a solid second tier in the 12-17% range. None cost more than $7,600 and David Johnson is just $5,900. All signs point to Johnson having a high floor of touches and he has been a high-touchdown scorer in his part-time role to-date. Stewart and Martin have top matchups, while Williams and David Johnson are top Footballguys H-Value projections.

Alshon Jeffery leads the receiver pack at 23% and Antonio Brown and A.J. Green form a second tier above 14%. None of them have ideal matchups, but all three are in the top-5 of Vegas team totals. The Footballguys projections clearly prefer Jeffery and Brown in terms of H-Value.

Greg Olsen dominates tight end ownership at 27.7%. Panthers sit atop many positions this week, making a Cam Newton-Greg Olsen stack the chalk play against New Orleans. Olsen has been one of the most consistent week-to-week tight ends this season – a position where inconsistency is the norm. Scott Chandler and Delanie Walker round out the options with at least 10% ownership. Both are top-5 Footballguys projeections by H-Value. Chandler fills in for Rob Gronkowski at a bargain basement $5,300 cap hit.

Like most of the other positions, the Panthers lead the way at ownership yet again with Graham Gano at kicker and their defense. The Bengals and Patriots are other defenses over 10% ownership. Stephen Gostkowski at 10.7% is only other double-digit kicker. While the Panthers are perceived as a slam dunk as 7-point road favorites against a struggling Saints team, I would recommend some constraint in terms of exposure. I rarely use a singular defense or kicker more than 30-35% of entry fees for the week. Gostkowski has the best Footballguys H-Value of the week, while Gano blends in with Chris Boswell in the second tier.

AGAINST THE GRAIN

The low-ownership group of quarterbacks is appealing, highlighted by Matt Hasselbeck a top Footballguys value play (1.6% owned) and Ryan Tannehill with a top matchup (Ravens pass defense, at home, 2.1% owned).

The Browns struggle stopping the run and both Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill are sparsley-owned. While the Bengals are solid favorites, I side with Bernard as a more well-rounded option with passing game upside. Both were below 4% ownership on Thursday. Mark Ingram and Danny Woodhead are also low-owned at less than 2%. Both have stingy run matchups (Carolina, Denver), but are active in the pass game if comeback mode starts early in their respective games.

The low-owned wide receiver group is less appealing than quarterback or running back. Donte Moncrief stands out at 2.3% against Pittsburgh – a top matchup for opposing receivers. With Matt Hasselbeck having a quality Footballguys projection, pairing him with Moncrief in tournaments makes sense. Moncrief sits at 10-15% ownership for my lineup cards this week.

Travis Kelce gets the porous Oakland tight end defense, has a top Footballguys projection, and logged 6.1% ownership on Thursday. Kyle Rudolph is the punt play of the week at $5,100, 1.4% ownership, and getting the Seattle defense whose weakness is covering tight ends.

Creating variance through low-ownership at kicker and defense is simple tournament tactic. The Bears are considered the strong Footballguys play for the money ($4,400) and had 6% ownership. Blaine Gabbert and the 49ers have played better than expected of late, but are still on the road in Chicago and strong underdogs. Arizona and Denver are owned in the 6% range with strong matchups and a premium salary of $5,300 or more. 

EXAMPLE GPP ROSTER 1

The Colts are touchdown underdogs against Pittsburgh, who have allowed two games of at least four passing touchdowns in the past three games (Russell Wilson, Derek Carr), including Russell Wilson's best pocket passing day as a pro. 

EXAMPLE GPP ROSTER 2

The Raiders struggle against the run and pass, making an Alex Smith stack in play this week. All but Teddy Bridgewater and Peyton Manning have had above-average performances against Oakland. Gurley is a low-owned upside shot with low ownership. Williams, Jeffery, and the Patriots defense and special teams units are chalk plays.

CASH GAMES: GO WITH THE HERD

Brandon LaFell is the only compromise to fit under the cap. Rob Gronkowski is out and Danny Amendola is questionable, making LaFell a riser headed into the Sunday. A Newton-Olsen stack is the most chalk option of the week.

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