Overvalued Players: Wide Receivers

Footballguys staff members discuss wide receivers who are overvalued

The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the top 150 players and identify players that should underperform their draft position.

Players Receiving 7 Votes

Sammy Watkins

Sigmund Bloom: The Buffalo offense will be as conservative as possible under Rex Ryan, and the defense is good enough to fulfill his wishes. Wouldn’t you want to limit the damage done to the team’s chances of winning by whoever the starting quarterback is this year? Watkins is not going to get consistent target volume, and he is also surrounded by some good talent at wide receiver and tight end that may make it not feasible to target him to the extent that a fourth round ADP needs to deliver on the heavy investment.

Michael Brown: There’s no questioning Watkins’ talent. Just one year into his career, he looks to possess the kind of talent needed to be a top-flight tight end. The issue for Watkins has more to do with everything else around him. For starters, the quarterback situation in Buffalo is among the league’s worst. No matter who wins the job, they aren’t likely to finish inside the top-20 at their position (and that’s being generous). On top of that, new head coach Rex Ryan emphasizes a conservative ball-control type of offense, which won’t lend itself to big plays for the receivers. Finally, the team brought in LeSean McCoy for a reason. They are going to use their new toy (not to mention veteran Fred Jackson). There are just too many obstacles to overcome for Watkins to crack the top-15 WRs this season.

Jeff Haseley: Rex Ryan isn't known for having high performance wide receivers. In fact, Eric Decker's 28th ranking last year was the highest a Rex Ryan coached wide receiver has fared since Bryalon Edwards 21st rank in 2010. Watkins has more talent than either of those receivers, which is why I'm not totally sour on him this year. When you look at the Bills quarterback situation, you can't help but be concerned. I am expecting a drop off in production in 2015 unless something unexpected happens at the quarterback position.

Ryan Hester: Paying a mid-WR2 price for a player who will be catching passes from either Matt Cassel, EJ Manuel, or Tyrod Taylor isn’t an advisable course of action. Immediately after Watkins are players catching passes from Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, and Matthew Stafford, respectively. Andrew Luck’s newest target – Andre Johnson – is being selected after Watkins as well. Buffalo’s offense is going to be very conservative with Rex Ryan at the helm and a talented defense to support it. Watkins won’t be consistent enough to warrant this price tag.

Andy Hicks: Sammy Watkins had an underrated excellent first season in the NFL. Almost 1000 yards and 6 touchdowns is high end production from a rookie. The arrival of Rex Ryan, Percy Harvin, LeSean McCoy and even Charles Clay are going to eat into his targets. Ryan especially is known to run the ball, a lot, so the really average quarterback situation makes it a certainty. While Watkins is highly talented and surely will be a fantasy star in the right circumstances, the 2015 Buffalo Bills is clearly the wrong situation.

Daniel Simpkins: The quarterback situation in Houston may be bad, but the quarterback competition in Buffalo seems even worse at this point. Orton was able to keep Watkins viable, but there are real doubts that whoever starts among Cassel, Manuel, or Taylor can do the same. It’s well documented that Ryan teams tend to excel on defense but struggle mightily on offense. Also take into account that the blockbuster trade Buffalo made for LeSean McCoy will mean that he will be the focal point of this offense. While owners can have confidence that Watkins’ talent will eventually win the long-term war, the battle for this year looks increasingly grim.

Mark Wimer: Quaterback depth chart reads Matt Cassel, EJ Manuel. That is not a group of arms that inspires confidence - also, Watkins was very inconsistent last season with eight games under 40 yards receiving (and he is recovering from hip surgery as of June). Add all the above together and I will pass on Watkins at his current ADP of 18th wide receiver selected in an average draft.

Player Receiving 6 Votes

Kelvin Benjamin

Sigmund Bloom: Benjamin had a smashing success of a rookie year in fantasy terms, but some of that is inflated by four garbage time scores that will be hard to reproduce in his second year. Benjamin looks like a player on the verge of WR1 numbers if you use those 2014 numbers as a baseline, and you’ll have to pay near WR1 prices to get him. The more likely outcome is the Benjamin is a WR2/WR3 that experiences more ups and downs with his own development and the choppy Panthers offense.

Michael Brown: Benjamin feels like something of a reach. He never really displayed great hands a year ago, and a lot of his value came from his scoring plays (which really dropped off as the season went on, with just 1 touchdown over his final five games). Benjamin didn’t prove particularly adept at bringing in the passes that went in his direction either, catching 73 of a possible 145 targets. It was even worse as the season went along, with just 21 catches on 47 targets over those final five games. To say he limped to the finish line is an understatement. I just look at the receivers being drafted just ahead of him, and they are all at least borderline elite players. You never want to take the guy at the top of the “next tier down”, not when you can grab similar players for half the price several rounds later.

Ari Ingel: Benjamin is a big boy and proved to be a great redzone target for Cam Newton last year, but he had a horrible catch rate of around 50% and showed that he needs to improve his route running. Unfortunately, he reported to OTA’s out of shape and has since been sidelined with a hamstring injury. The addition of rookie clone Devin Funchess also could lead to a few less targets in the redzone. That said, I don’t think Benjamin completely falls off the map, but I would much rather draft him at the end of the fourth or early fifth round than at the top of the third.

Jeff Pasquino: I like Kelvin Benjamin, but part of the reason that Benjamin was so valuable last year was that he was the only real wide receiver of any value on that roster. Benjamin led the team by a country mile in targets with 145, with only tight end Greg Olsen even coming close with 124 targets. No other Panther had more than 79 targets (Jericho Cotchery), and those three players were the only Panthers with over 40 targets all season. So what changed since last year? Carolina spent a second round draft pick on Devin Funchess, who many describe as another Benjamin-type receiver. Funchess should eat into all of those targets as the likely starter opposite of Benjamin, and it would not surprise me to see Benjamin with a 20-25% reduction in chances this year. That tells me Benjamin’s present perceived value of a Top 15 WR is too high.

Daniel Simpkins: While Devin Funchess is a bit raw, so was Kelvin Benjamin coming out last year. My gut feeling is that Funchess will be utilized this year much in the same way as Benjamin was last year. Benjamin might be unfazed for this year while Funchess adjusts to the NFL level, but there is a chance that Funchess develops more quickly than anticipated and cuts into his targets significantly. An early third-round pick is the current market value for Benjamin. With players that we know will command the top targets in their offense such as Brandon Cooks, DeAndre Hopkins, and Keenan Allen still on the board, it seems like Benjamin is just a bit overvalued.

Matt Waldman: The Panthers receiver has the physical skills to become a fantasy WR1, but the mental preparation remains a question mark. Last year, Benjamin was too often a limited and unreliable route runner. This year, he arrived at camp overweight. It’s not a great sign that Benjamin has a mature approach to his profession. By comparison, Martavis Bryant was considered a less emotionally mature prospect entering the league and after a strong second half last year, has arrived in camp in better shape than the year prior. Benjamin still has the role and opportunity to outpace the likes of Bryant as a fantasy option, but Benjamin’s ADP of WR13 is rich for a receiver that hasn’t displayed the preparation you expect from a WR1/WR2.

Player Receiving 3 Votes

Jarvis Landry

Phil Alexander: Landry may end up what he was last year - a decent PPR glue guy - but it’s hard to get excited in fantasy about a player who was targeted 5.5 yards downfield on average (per Pro Football Focus). To give you an idea of how absurdly low that number is, Landry generated fewer receiving yards at the point of catch than Brian Quick, who played in only six full games last season, and recorded 59 fewer receptions than Landry. With Miami’s additions of high profile rookie Davante Parker (assuming he’s healthy to start the year), Kenny Stills, Jordan Cameron, Greg Jennings (and even RB Jay Ajayi who catches the ball well out of the backfield), it’s going to be tough for Landry to sustain his target volume from the second half of 2014. And without loads of targets, there’s nothing to see here.

Stephen Holloway: Landry was a short route specialist in his rookie season for the Dolphins and he was in the right place at the right time. His 112 targets were 2nd, just behind Mike Wallace. However, the Dolphins added Kenny Stills, DaVante Parker, Greg Jennings, and Jordan Cameron this off-season so the receiver cupboard is no longer bare. His 9.0 ypc average in his rookie season was the lowest of 56 NFL wide receivers that caught 50 or more passes. Unless he greatly improves that number, he will not the volume needed to be productive.

Matt Waldman: The Dolphins’ slot receiver was WR42 last year and WR25 during the final seven weeks. His 2015 preseason ADP is WR26. Although Landry is arguably the receiver with the greatest rapport with Ryan Tannehill, he’s primarily a slot option. Greg Jennings and Kenny Stills are good enough to establish a fast rapport with Tannehill and DeVante Parker will rotate through all three positions as a matchup play. Borrowing concepts from the Eagles offense, there’s opportunity in Miami for Landry to earn a high enough reception total for top-30 production all season long. The reason I’m leery about Landry’s upside in his role has to do with slot receivers producing at this level being the fantasy exception rather than the rule. If I’m going to take a chance on a receiver jumping a tier, I’d rather it be an outside option.

Players Receiving 2 Votes

Victor Cruz

Jeff Haseley: I don't want any part of Victor Cruz. His torn patella injury is not easy to come back from. He'll never have the same elusiveness and quick twitch ability that made him a household name before the injury. When you take away that facet of his game, you're not left with much. Combine that with the emergence of Odell Beckham Jr and the persistent presence of Rueben Randle and Cruz becomes an afterthought in my book.

Matt Waldman: When at top physical form, Cruz is that exceptional fantasy case as a slot receiver. The Giants receiver’s battle to return to that form from a patellar tendon tear is a tall order. Selecting Cruz above the likes of Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, Kendall Wright, Kenny Stills, John Brown, and Terrance Williams places far too much confidence in the Giants receiver’s recuperative powers from a most troubling injury. That’s what fantasy owners are doing with his ADP of WR 37.

Michael Floyd

Jeff Haseley: We've been waiting for Michael Floyd to develop into a Top 20 wide receiver, but it hasn't happened yet and his window is getting smaller to make a difference. Another reason for my disinterest in Floyd is the play of second year receiver John Brown, who I believe will see an uptick in production in 2015. Brown's emergence will put a damper on Floyd's opportunity. My money is on Brown rising while Floyd drops.

Jason Wood: Michael Floyd is the first Cardinals receiver off the board, but I’m not sure he should be. In 2014 Floyd finished 3rd among Cardinals’ receivers with 99 targets and 47 receptions; in spite of the fact he was a full-time starter (Larry Fitzgerald missed games; John Brown only started 5 games). If I’m betting on a young receiver from this roster, it’s John Brown. That’s not to say Floyd is a bad receiver – it’s just that he’s not particularly better than his receiving mates. With Carson Palmer coming back, there is upside to the passing attack – but I would rather take the last of the three Cardinals “starters” over the guy going several rounds earlier than his counterparts.

A.J. Green

Chad Parsons: The Bengals offense are clearly an offense built around a strong run game and limiting the exposure of Andy Dalton. In addition to the construct of the offense, A.J. Green has to deal with Giovani returning to full health in the passing game, Tyler Eifert back in the mix, and Marvin Jones. All three at points in 2013-2014 looked to be high quality secondary options for the Bengals. With a top-10 positional ADP price tag, Green is a clear avoid player for similar (or better) wide receiver options in the following 10-20 picks.

Mark Wimer: The pending return of Marvin Jones and the run-centric offense now in place up in Cincinnati limits the ceiling/upside for Green during 2015. He will struggle to crack the top ten among fantasy wide receivers, so I think his current ADP of eighth wide receiver selected is too high.

T.Y. Hilton

Andy Hicks: It’s clear that T.Y. Hilton is the number one target for Andrew Luck. As he has gained more experienced and developed a rapport with Luck he has moved up the fantasy rankings from WR3, to WR2 and last year to WR1. What concerns me this year is that the supporting cast has been significantly upgraded. Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks were clearly past their best, Trent Richardson offered nothing to the run game and the other wide receivers were too inexperienced. Experience and talent isn’t a problem this year. Frank Gore comes in to sure up the running back position, while Andre Johnson is going to be a significant target for Luck. Add in a 1st round rookie WR in Phillip Dorsett, highly talented Duron Carter and further improvement from Donte Moncrieff and I don’t think there will be enough targets for Hilton to retain his WR1 standing.

Stephen Holloway: Hilton has been productive for all three of his NFL seasons. He matched his career high receptions (82), set a career high in receiving yards (1,345) and tied his career high in TDs last season. His problem in 2015 will be targets. He was already sharing opportunities with Reggie Wayne, two talented tight ends and last year’s rookie Donte Moncrief. Now, the Colts have added Andre Johnson to replace the departing Wayne and drafted the speedy Phillip Dorsett in the 1st round. Hilton led the Colts in targets in each of the last two seasons, but only averaged 135 for the two years. That number could drop some this year.

DeAndre Hopkins

Ari Ingel: At his current 3rd round ADP, I’m passing on Hopkins. I don’t view him as a true number one receiver in this league and with Andre Johnson gone to take the pressure off, Hopkins is certain to disappoint in that role. An interesting fact to know from tape study, despite Andre Johnson’s struggles last year, the opposing teams number one corner covered Andre Johnson in every single game last year. Let someone else see how Hopkins does against the likes of Darrelle Revis, Vontae Davis, Sean Smith, Desmond Trufant and Alterraun Verner. I’d rather spend a last round pick on Cecil Shorts.

Jeff Pasquino: I like DeAndre Hopkins, but part of what I want to see in a Top 20 wide receiver on my list is a solid quarterback situation. The Houston Texans do not have that at all entering training camp, so I am going to lower expectations for Hopkins accordingly. Even if Brian Hoyer or Ryan Mallett emerges as the clear starter for Week 1, the talent level at quarterback is suspect at best. Another factor to consider are the complementary pieces surrounding Hopkins, and the lack of elite talent at both WR2 and starting tight end. The projected starters (Cecil Shorts, Garrett Graham) should not scare any opposing defenses, so Hopkins could very well see double coverage quite often. I see a lot of downside risk and frustration in taking Hopkins too early in drafts.

Brandon Marshall

Andy Hicks: Brandon Marshall faces a crucial year. After 7 consecutive 1000 yard seasons he suffered from injury last year as well as clearly looking below his best in 2014. Sometimes change is great for a veteran, but most of the time moving to a struggling franchise with a new head coach doesn’t work out. Marshall won’t get it easy for targets from Geno Smith either. He’ll have Eric Decker, rookie Devin Smith, Jeremy Kerley and 2nd year tight end JaceAmaro in the mix competing for the ball. At the moment Marshall will need to finish as a WR2 to live up to his draft slot. That’s probably too much to ask for.

Mark Wimer: Marshall will make do with a chaotic quarterback situation during 2015 - it's possible that all three of the Jets' quarterbacks will see playing time during regular season, and none of them are top-notch options. While Marshall will see a steady diet of targets, I don't think that the quality of the passes he'll chase will allow a high conversion rate - I think Marshall is vastly overvalued at his current ADP of 22nd receiver off the board.

Jordan Matthews

Stephen Holloway: The Eagles lost Jeremy Maclin in free agency and Jordan Matthews now sits atop the wide receiver depth chart. He is not guaranteed significant more targets though. The Eagles will probably run a lot and they have three talented running backs that are all good receivers. The team produced 93 receptions with the tight end position and that number could rise. They also drafted Nelson Agholor with their 1st round pick and he reminds many of Jeremy Maclin.

Jeff Pasquino: Jordan Matthews is a talented receiver, but the reason I have him on the overvalued list here is his current draft slot. The expectations for Matthews are far too high if you have to select him as a Top 20 wide receiver. There is little doubt that Chip Kelly loves offense, but there are several unanswered questions regarding the 2015 version for the Eagles. The depth chart is still being defined as to who the top target in the passing game will be, and while it appears that Matthews will be the primary wide receiver, rookie Nelson Algohor will be in the running very soon for at least a split “1A” option in that high-powered offense. The other supposition for the Philadelphia is stability at the quarterback position, which is not a given with Sam Bradford the new starter for the Eagles. If everything goes according to plan, Matthews could easily be a Top 15 wide receiver, but I can just as easily see Matthews finishing in the WR25-30 range in 2015. That downside risk is too much for me to take Matthews in the Top 20 wide receivers in drafts this year.

Emmanuel Sanders

Michael Brown: A year ago, Sanders was the hot draftee that shot up ADP boards as the summer went along. He rewarded those who took the plunge with a monstrous season. But the 2015 Broncos offense looks like it’s going to be very different from the 2014 version, and the player most affected will likely be Sanders. No less an authority than Sanders himself has said his role will be greatly reduced, and his new goal is to reach 1,000 receiving yards. It doesn’t take a VBD genius to figure out that if Sanders gets to 1,000 yards, there’s almost no chance he’ll live up to his ADP. He needs the volume in order to be a successful fantasy receiver, and without a Demaryius Thomas injury, that volume simply won’t be there.

Daniel Simpkins: With Peyton Manning slowing down, the team will want to rely more on the ground game than in previous seasons to keep him as fresh as possible. On top of that add Kubiak’s tendency to want to emphasize the run in his offenses. While Sanders was the surprise value in this offense in 2014, owners can expect CJ Anderson to fill that role in 2015. Additionally, the Broncos will seek to get the talented Cody Latimer more involved this year, which will cut down on some of Sanders’ targets. He’s being drafted as a low WR1, and these factors make him into an asset that’s better suited to be a team’s fantasy WR2.

Golden Tate

Sigmund Bloom: Tate is good enough to outproduce his ADP, but chances are he won’t get the opportunity to in Detroit this year. He performed admirably when Calvin Johnson went down as a #1, and produced like a #1, but he’s an unexciting #3 when Johnson is on the field. It is impossible to justify spending a fourth or even a fifth round pick on Tate unless you can see the future and know Johnson is going down again this year for an extended period.

Ryan Hester: Tate did most of his damage in 2014 while Calvin Johnson was injured. Detroit also showed through some of their offseason moves that they’d like to be a more balanced team. Tate is being drafted as a low-end WR2, but with Johnson demanding a significant target share in the offense and Joique Bell and Ameer Abdullah carrying the load from a rushing perspective, Tate isn’t likely to be enough of a focal point in the offense to return the investment.

Kevin White

Jeff Haseley: I understand that Kevin White has Julio Jones-like abilities that many teams would love to have at their disposal, however White will have to overcome John Fox and his tendency to shy away from rookies as key contributors in their first year. Alshon Jeffery is the team's primary receiving weapon, plus Martellus Bennett and Matt Forte are viable options as well. Include into the mix newly signed Eddie Royal, who offensive coordinator Adam Gase knows well from his days in Denver. The writing is on the wall for White to be eased into the offense in year one. I'm not biting on him as a WR29 unless I notice a big role carved for him in the preseason.

Matt Waldman: The rookie’s ability isn’t a question mark. The looming factor this year is John Fox’s reticence to rely on rookie receivers. Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett, Matt Forte, and Eddie Royal offer enough firepower that expecting White to carve out a role that earns top-30 fantasy production at his position this year is risky. Fox prefers a run-oriented offense. White will one day become a receiver with skills that may equal or exceed those of Jeffery, but projecting top-30 production is expecting too much with the surrounding talent, John Fox’s preferences, and Jay Cutler’s recent woes.

Players Receiving 1 Vote

Odell Beckham Jr, Jr.

Michael Brown: Beckham probably has the highest ceiling of about any player in the league. In 2014, he caught everything thrown his way (even a few things not thrown his way). But we can’t just extrapolate Beckham’s 2014 stats over a full 16-game slate and assume that’s what he’ll do in year 2. He won’t sneak up on anyone this time, he’s got to fight for targets with Victor Cruz, and you’re paying a premium for him at a point in the draft where he HAS to duplicate what he did a year ago in order to validate the pick. I’m not saying you can’t take a WR. I just feel like the other elite WRs offer nearly as much upside as Beckham but between hamstring issues and the unknown factor of being a 2nd-year guy, the others offer a much higher floor.

Martavis Bryant

Jason Wood: Bryant is a HIGH risk pick this season. While it’s true he flashed moments of greatness in his 2014 rookie season, we can’t lose sight of the fact his 2014 was a statistical oddity. Bryant caught 8 touchdowns on 26 catches. He was the league’s best deep threat, but he was one dimensional. NFL history tells us that his high success rate of long TDs is unlikely to be repeated; ergo he must materially increase his targets, receptions and yardage in order to maintain last year’s overall value (WR42). While I think Bryant will improve in 2015, I don’t see his role (or skill set) evolving enough to justify a pick as a high-end fantasy WR3.

Brandin Cooks

Mark Wimer: Cooks is in position to be a favorite target of Drew Brees, but the team is transitioning to a more balanced, power-running game model. With a declining number of targets available, Also, Cooks was used as a short-to-intermediate route runner during 2014 (10.4 yards per catch on average) - his role on the team didn't lead to explosive numbers. Cooks will be hard pressed to finish in the top 20 among wide receivers - he is vastly overvalued at 15th wide receiver off the board.

Amari Cooper

Jeff Pasquino: The NFL has certainly changed in recent years to favor the passing attacks across the league, and last season it was also clear that rookie wide receivers can and did contribute significantly both on the field and in fantasy production numbers in 2014. That trend will lend itself to people wanting to grab the newest wide receivers entering the league, especially ones selected in the first two rounds in May. Amari Cooper sits atop the rookie draft class list as he was selected fourth overall by Oakland, but that is by no means a guarantee for fantasy success. Cooper has a ton of talent but he will be competing for targets with Michael Crabtree and tight end Mychal Rivera. I have a lot of reservations with the Raiders’ offense with David Carr, a quarterback regarded right now as a borderline QB2 at best. Cooper is a talent and could be a WR2, but for me that is the best case scenario and drafting him as a Top 24 option is too high.

Mike Evans

Ryan Hester: Evans is very much a “boom-bust” type of fantasy asset. He has the size, speed, and skills to score 12 or more touchdowns in any give season. But due to his offense, he’s unlikely to eclipse 80 catches or sniff the league lead in yardage. Evans will be catching passes from a rookie quarterback this season as well, rarely a recipe for consistent fantasy success. Because he’ll lack the receptions and yardage that the league’s top receivers will have, his ceiling is likely something in the WR8 range. Therefore, drafting Evans in the top-10 among wide receivers is essentially betting that he’ll hit his ceiling. While it’s very possible that he does, there are other options being selected around and after Evans who could finish top-10 but have a top-five ceiling. Alshon Jeffrey and T.Y. Hilton are two such players.

Larry Fitzgerald

Daniel Simpkins: Once a perennial top ten wide receiver, Fitzgerald can now be had around the late seventh to early eighth round price range in 12-team leagues. Many would see this as a bargain, but at age 32, Fitzgerald is only a shadow of what he used to be. Owners are currently drafting as if he will be the second option in the passing game. In reality, Fitzgerald will be the third option in an air attack featuring Michael Floyd and the emerging John Brown. When an owner considers that there are higher-upside options surrounding Fitzgerald in the draft, it makes the choice to take him off the board at his current price much easier.

Dorial Green-Beckham

James Brimacombe: Green-Beckham has had a history of off field issues and has been a headache for coaches throughout his college career. He has all the tools and size to be a fantastic football player but there needs to be a 100% commitment to the sport and willing to do whatever it takes to make it in the league. On top of all of that he is a rookie and plays for the Titans who have struggled throwing the ball down the field.

Alshon Jeffery

Andy Hicks: Alshon Jeffery has posted back to back fantasy WR1 seasons. The Bears trust him to lead their offense so much so, they traded Brandon Marshall to the Jets. That’s all great and in the final year of his rookie contract Jeffery will be keen to do well. What concerns me is the new coaching staff under John Fox and the presence of Jay Cutler. I don’t think the combination is going to work well. Fox and the Bears will be rid of Cutler as soon as they can afford to and definitely won’t play him if he continues to be nonchalant. Any backup the Bears use at quarterback is not going to make Alshon Jeffery a WR1 this season.

Charles Johnson

Jason Wood: To hear some fantasy experts tell it, Charles Johnson was a breakout star last year and is now poised to build off that 2nd half emergence with the added benefit of a full training camp as a starter. That’s crazy talk. Johnson was a pleasant surprise but was hardly a star. Johnson garnered 6 catches for 87 yards against the Bears in Week 10 and followed that with a 3 catch, 52-yard, 1-TD effort. Two weeks later Johnson had 103 yards and a TD against the Jets. But that’s where the platitudes end. Did you realize that over the final 8 games Johnson was on better than Greg Jennings? Both had 52 fantasy points (and Jennings was the more efficient player, needing only 35 targets to Johnson’s 47). Meanwhile Jarius Wright finished with 45 fantasy points over that span. This was a WR-committee. Explain to me how a journeyman WR with middling numbers (outside of a month-long hot streak) is the fantasy equivalent of Mike Wallace? You can’t, yet their fantasy ADPs suggest otherwise. Don’t fall into that trap.

Brandon LaFell

James Brimacombe: LaFell had his best season of his career last year and that is not surprising since it was his first season with Tom Brady as his quarterback. The 74/953/7 2015 statline looks very appealing and if he could duplicate those numbers he would be a nice value at his current ADP. The problem with banking on that to happen again you are also planning on the Patriots offense doing the same thing as a year ago and that is never the case in New England. Other than taking Tom Brady or Rob Gronkowski each year there is no Patriots player that can be counted on year in and year out.

Cody Latimer

Jason Wood: Latimer’s current ADP is almost too low to make a case he’s being over drafted – but I’m going to try. If rankings were based purely on talent, I would argue Latimer deserves to be much higher. And if either Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders get hurt, Latimer will be a value. Yet, if the starters stay healthy, Latimer is going to be one of the first players on your roster that gets jettisoned for the hot waiver claim of the week. The problem lies in the Broncos switch to Gary Kubiak’s offensive system. Kubiak’s teams have rarely if ever made use of a 3rd receiver; at least with any fantasy-relevant consistency.

Demaryius Thomas

Christopher Feery: While there is no denying Thomas’ top 5 WR ability a couple of red flags may cause him to finish lower than that. First, Thomas has skipped OTAs as he’s unhappy with receiving the franchise tag this offseason. The Denver brass is not pleased and while this should be resolved before camp the contentiousness surrounding it throws up a caution flag. Second, new HC Gary Kubiak is expected to lean on the run more and reduce the passing volume. While any offense with Peyton Manning under center will likely be a top 5 offense, the numbers of both him and his receivers could take a hit in 2015.

Kendall Wright

Sigmund Bloom: The Titans offense is simply not where you want to look for your sleepers this year. Wright has been rendered a mere possession receiver in an offense that has trouble putting drives together. Breaking in a rookie QB isn’t a recipe for fantasy success, and Wright might not get much help from his WR2 unless Justin Hunter or Dorial Green-Beckham have their heads on straight, and in that case, either of them are better sleeper plays than Wright. Where’s the upside, even in the 10th round.