This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players.
Quarterback
- Top 200 ranking: 17
- Weekly ranking: 24
- Difference: -7
Winston and the Buccaneers were off last week and should be well rested. Tampa Bay visits Washington this Sunday. Coach Jay Gruden has his defense playing very well. We do not like Winston's chances of putting up big points on the road. Also, the lack of big games by Mike Evans limits the week-to-week upside of Winston.
- Top 200 ranking: 12
- Weekly ranking: 18
- Difference: -6
Carr and the Raiders are coming off their bye just in time to travel to San Diego to face the reeling Chargers. San Diego played Green Bay a good game at Lambeau Field last week and are looking for a win against the AFC West foe. The Chargers have an improved pass defense and could contain the pass-happy Carr most of the afternoon.
Running Back
- Top 200 ranking: 7
- Weekly ranking: 14
- Difference: -7
The threat of a lingering abdominal injury has caused Lewis to slide three spots in the Top 200 running back rankings. Even still, the slippery and explosive Lewis will find little room to run against the New York Jets this week. He is best left on the fantasy bench, unless no other viable options, until Lewis can show that he is past the core injury.
- Top 200 ranking: 8
- Weekly ranking: 12
- Difference: -4
Martin may not have much running room against Washington this week. He will be facing the eighth-ranked defense in allowing fantasy points to opposing running backs. Martin is still a low-end RB1 this week.
- Top 200 ranking: 10
- Weekly ranking: 15
- Difference: -5
The Jets have been a strong running team so far this season. The trip to New England should be a good test to see if New York can pound the rock against one of the better rush defenses. There is also the fear of the Jets getting down on the scoreboard and having to throw often to keep pace.
Wide Receiver
- Top 200 ranking: 39
- Weekly ranking: 87
- Difference: -48
We will be surprised if Bryant plays much – if any - in the huge game against the Giants this week. He still has not begun cutting on the injured foot or running routes at full strength. If he plays, we expect the superstar receiver to be limited to a decoy role. Having Matt Cassel under center cannot be good for fantasy numbers, either.
- Top 200 ranking: 11
- Weekly ranking: 14
- Difference: -3
Cooper has been outstanding in his first few professional games. He runs tight routes and is able to break off big plays after the catch. We expect the Chargers defense to limit the opportunities for Cooper this week. He is a star and we would not recommend sitting Cooper. Just temper expectations this weekend.
- Top 200 ranking: 16
- Weekly ranking: 28
- Difference: -12
Maclin has been able to get open but Alex Smith misses him by yards, not feet. The game against the vast-improved Steelers defense this week should test the Chiefs passing attack. We expect coach Tomlin to show plenty of respect to Maclin. This is assuming Maclin even plays after the nasty concussion he suffered a week ago. As of mid-week, the Chiefs receiver was still in the concussion protocol and not cleared to practice.
Tight End
- Top 200 ranking: 3
- Weekly ranking: 9
- Difference: -6
Witten misses having Tony Romo in the lineup. The game in New York against the Giants will test how well the Cowboys find and target Witten. Romo naturally looks for the big tight end in the middle of the field. Will new quarterback Matt Cassel do the same? We have our doubts. Add in the quality of the Giants defense and we are down on Witten's chances of producing a Top 5 fantasy game.
- Top 200 ranking: 15
- Weekly ranking: 23
- Difference: -8
While Green will face the worst defense in defending tight ends, the Oakland Raiders, this week, we see the targets going to Antonio Gates more than the athletic Green. He may be worth a desperation play for the Eifert owner, but the upside should be limited as Gates has a monster game. Keep an eye on the Gates knee injury. If the veteran were to miss the game, Green would vault into the Top 10 ranked players at the tight end position.
Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback. Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.
