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This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players.
Quarterback
- Top 200 ranking: 4
- Weekly ranking: 10
- Difference: -6
Manning has played very well of late. We are a bit concerned about the game in Philadelphia this week. This could be a rough spot for Manning and the Giants pass offense. While the Eagles have had their own struggles on offense, the defense has performed well. On the road, this feels like a rough outing for the entire offense. Fantasy owners should hope a shootout erupts where both teams throw the ball often.
- Top 200 ranking: 11
- Weekly ranking: 20
- Difference: -9
We are hoping the coaching change helps Tannehill but would advise giving him a week. The Dolphins go on the road to meet the Titans. Tennessee is a much improved defense and will make things difficult for the struggling Tannehill. We do not have high hopes. Just look at how the Titans slowed down the Bills a week ago.
Running Back
- Top 200 ranking: 4
- Weekly ranking: 6
- Difference: -2
The last few times the Patriots have faced the Colts, New England has leaned heavily on the power running game. While we would not advise benching Lewis, expectations should be tempered as this could be a big game for LeGarrette Blount bludgeoning the soft underbelly of the Indianapolis defense. The Patriots could easily jump out to an early lead and run the ball often. This is a likely game script.
- Top 200 ranking: 24
- Weekly ranking: 38
- Difference: -14
Riddick has been able to be a very good fantasy starter even without getting carries. We think his fantasy stardom will hit a speedbump this week against the Bears. Chicago has played surprisingly well on defense this season. Coach Fox has his defense playing well. The poor play of Matthew Stafford cannot help the hopes of fantasy owners.
- Top 200 ranking: 14
- Weekly ranking: 17
- Difference: -3
The Chargers travel to Green Bay to meet the Packers. San Diego is still reeling from the loss to Pittsburgh and could be flat in the game. The Green Bay linebackers have the speed to limit Woodhead from breaking off big gains. He still is a solid fantasy RB2 in PPR leagues.
Wide Receiver
- Top 200 ranking: 16
- Weekly ranking: 22
- Difference: -6
The Dolphins are coming off their bye week and travel to the Titans. Tennessee defense has played very well this season. Just look how the Bills were held in check last Sunday. With the tenuous situation at quarterback, Landry will suffer the unintended negative consequences.
- Top 200 ranking: 11
- Weekly ranking: 15
- Difference: -4
We do not like the chances of the Chargers offense having a good day in Lambeau Field, the home of the Packers. If there was a game set for a quarterback and offensive meltdown, this one would rank up with the Giants traveling to the Eagles this week. Green Bay will show Allen plenty of attention as San Diego's only big-play threat.
- Top 200 ranking: 14
- Weekly ranking: 21
- Difference: -7
Johnson has languished through a difficult season mired by poor quarterback play. The game against the Bears will be a big test for the Lions passing game. We do not like the lack of ingenuity shown in order to get the best player on the field open in space. Chicago will test Stafford and company. This game could be ugly.
Tight End
- Top 200 ranking: 8
- Weekly ranking: 11
- Difference: -3
The Seahawks are still figuring out how to best use the star tight end. The game this week against the stiff Panthers defense will not help him pad the statistics. Carolina is coming off a bye week and would love to give Seattle their fourth loss in six games. This should be a hard fought affair, and one which will be difficult for the talented tight end to find space to roam AND enough targets to be a fantasy star.
- Top 200 ranking: 15
- Weekly ranking: 24
- Difference: -9
Ebron suffered a minor knee injury two weeks ago against the Seahawks and is trying to make it back against the Bears. Even if he plays, leave Ebron on the bench. He will not be racking up fantasy points while limping around the field.
Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback. Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.