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This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players.
Quarterback
- Top 200 ranking: 7
- Weekly ranking: 12
- Difference: -5
Mariota has enjoyed a very strong start to his career. Even though the Titans are coming off a bye week, the game against the Bills should be a difficult one. Rex Ryan will look to confuse the youngster. We expect Buffalo to blitz Mariota early and often. While we love his outlook, this might be a week to lower expectations for Mariota. But, we still believe he is a superstar in the making.
- Top 200 ranking: 8
- Weekly ranking: 14
- Difference: -6
Taylor and the Bills offense travels to Tennessee to face the upstart Titans. Without LeSean McCoy and possibly Sammy Watkins, we wonder how strong of a day Taylor will have against a rested and prepared Titans defense. Yes, this offense was able to move the ball against the Giants a week ago, but this could be a much more difficult challenge.
Running Back
- Top 200 ranking: 6
- Weekly ranking: 12
- Difference: -6
Lewis has been stellar to begin the season, surprising all concerned. He has a tough matchup against the Cowboys in Dallas this week. The Cowboys defense has been improved and is one of the better rush defenses in the NFL. In addition, LeGarrette Blount could be used to bludgeon the Dallas middle more than Lewis. The game could be lower scoring than most fantasy owners would prefer.
- Top 200 ranking: 14
- Weekly ranking: 23
- Difference: -9
Bernard and the Bengals face a stiff test this week against the Seahawks. Seattle stops the run well. This was evidenced on Monday night as the talented Detroit running backs could not pick up yards consistently. While Bernard is still a fantasy RB2, he lacks the upside of a monster game with the Seahawks lined up on defense.
- Top 200 ranking: 10
- Weekly ranking: 19
- Difference: -9
Woodhead has been steady, producing RB2 numbers most weeks. The game against the Steelers may be a low scoring, grinding game, one that fits Melvin Gordon’s skillset more than Woodhead’s. The diminutive back produces big fantasy points when the Chargers are forced to throw often while playing from behind. We do not foresee this type of game script. Rather, we would expect San Diego to garner a lead and pound the rookie runner often.
Wide Receiver
- Top 200 ranking: 10
- Weekly ranking: 17
- Difference: -7
Cooper is playing like a veteran even though he is a rookie. But, we do not like his chances of having a monster outing against the Broncos this week. Denver has great cornerbacks and defend the pass well. Few wide receivers are able to amass 100 yards against the Broncos. This game will test the mettle of quarterback Derek Carr as much as Cooper. How will he hold up to the pressure Denver will bring?
- Top 200 ranking: 5
- Weekly ranking: 9
- Difference: -4
Green is a superstar and will get his numbers almost every week. The game against the Seahawks this week will be a huge test for Green and quarterback Andy Dalton. The Cincinnati passing game has been borderline elite so far this season and we are looking forward to seeing if they pass the test against a top-notch defense. We advise tempering expectations for Green and company.
- Top 200 ranking: 11
- Weekly ranking: 15
- Difference: -4
The Lions host the Cardinals after traveling back from the Pacific Northwest Monday night. Detroit has found it difficult to get untracked so far in this young season. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has not been sharp and is not forcing the ball to his superstar pass catcher. Johnson will get plenty of attention from the talented Arizona corners. How will the Stafford/Johnson duo respond?
Tight End
- Top 200 ranking: 24
- Weekly ranking: 46
- Difference: -22
Allen has missed a couple of games with an ankle injury. Most of the time, we advise watching a returning player one week after they come back from injury. With the uncertainty at the quarterback position, both Andrew Luck and Matt Hasselbeck are questionable for the contest. This is a situation to avoid for Allen owners.
- Top 200 ranking: 12
- Weekly ranking: 23
- Difference: -11
Ebron suffered a minor knee injury last week against the Seahawks and is trying to make it back in time to play versus the Cardinals. Even if he does suit up, leave Ebron on the bench. He will not be racking up fantasy points while limping around the field.
Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback. Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.
