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This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players.
Quarterback
- Top 200 ranking: 11
- Weekly ranking: 17
- Difference: -6
Tannehill and the Miami offense have gotten off to a rocky start to the season. The running game is non-existent and the Dolphins passer has not been able to consistently make plays. This is an undesirable combination with the New York Jets next on the schedule. The Jets have a top-flight defense, both against the run and the pass. We do not like Tannehill's chances of turning things around this week. New York's pass rush will force some poor throws.
- Top 200 ranking: 15
- Weekly ranking: 24
- Difference: -9
Stafford is another quarterback who has disappointed this season. He struggled for most of the contest against the Denver Broncos on Sunday night. Having Calvin Johnson in the lineup is the only saving grace many weeks. The Lions have abandoned the run and relied on Stafford, and that formula has not been successful. The game in Seattle on Monday night could be ugly. We expect the Seahawks to have Stafford on the run for most of the game.
Running Back
- Top 200 ranking: 15
- Weekly ranking: 22
- Difference: -7
On Wednesday, coach Arians stated that his star tailback is “50-50” to play this week versus the St. Louis Rams. With the strong play of Chris Johnson, the upside is not high for Ellington … even if he does suit up. The two ball carriers would likely split duty, with rookie David Johnson seeing limited action as well. He did practice on a limited basis Wednesday which offers hope that Ellington is close to returning from the PCL injury. The stout Rams defense is another reason to wait on Ellington at least another week. This is a poor game to rely on the talented runner.
- Top 200 ranking: 11
- Weekly ranking: 17
- Difference: -6
Bernard has seized the reins of the Bengals tailback job and played well, keeping Jeremy Hill on the bench. It was Hill's fumblitis which elevated Bernard in the first place. The game against the Kansas City Chiefs will be a tough, hard fought battle. This is the type of game that Cincinnati may want to pound Hill to soften up the very good Chiefs defense. Bernard may only see the majority of snaps if the Bengals get behind early.
- Top 200 ranking: 8
- Weekly ranking: 14
- Difference: -6
Lynch is a tough player for fantasy owners to insert into fantasy lineups. The Detroit Lions have a passable rush defense, holding the Denver runners in check a week ago. But, the big issue for Lynch is his hamstring injury, leaving the talented veteran very questionable for Monday night's game. Fantasy owners will need to decide long before Monday whether they want to risk playing Lynch. This is why he is a fantasy RB2 this week. Lynch could try to play and leave the game, just like last week. There is much risk in this situation.
Wide Receiver
- Top 200 ranking: 11
- Weekly ranking: 20
- Difference: -9
Marshall is producing big numbers even with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. The game against the Miami Dolphins early Sunday morning will be a tough one for Marshall. Miami has a strong secondary and will make sure Marshall gets extra attention with Eric Decker still sidelined.
- Top 200 ranking: 6
- Weekly ranking: 10
- Difference: -4
Hopkins is a star in the making. He runs fluidly down the field and has the athleticism to either out-jump or out-muscle most cornerbacks. But, the horrendous quarterback play of Ryan Mallett has held Hopkins in check. We are more worried about the quarterback play than the Falcons defense. The Houston offense – and Mallett in particular – needs Arian Foster back ASAP to keep balance offensively.
- Top 200 ranking: 9
- Weekly ranking: 13
- Difference: -4
Johnson has not slowed down with age. He still is a mismatch for most defensive backs. The game in Seattle will test Johnson's ability to get open. The veteran has fought double teams for most of his career and will struggle to find separation against a Seahawks defense focused on stopping him. With Stafford under duress Monday night, this could be a(nother) rough outing for the Lions pass offense, especially the All Pro receiver.
Tight End
- Top 200 ranking: 2
- Weekly ranking: 4
- Difference: -2
With Rob Gronkowski and Delanie Walker on bye this week, most of the top tight ends were Value Plays. Not so with Kelce as the Chiefs travel to Cincinnati to face the Bengals. The Bengals have a good defense and cover the tight end well. Given the lack of receiving threats in the Kansas City offense, Cincinnati will have a game plan for Kelce. He is still ranked fourth for the week, and remains a must start. We just recommend tempering expectations of a huge outing.
Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback. Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.