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This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players.
Quarterback
- Top 200 ranking: 3
- Weekly ranking: 12
- Difference: -9
Wilson looked lost at times against the St. Louis Rams last week. Yes, the Rams have a very good defense. With the Seahawks still smarting from the loss, the game in Green Bay is huge. Seattle does not want to begin the season with an 0-2 record. Green Bay did a good job containing Jay Cutler and company last week and will look to keep the athletic Wilson in the pocket. This might be the lowest Wilson is ranked all year.
- Top 200 ranking: 9
- Weekly ranking: 20
- Difference: -11
The Bengals have a very good defense and will look to contain the veteran quarterback. Rivers had a great outing last Sunday against the Detroit Lions. We do not expect him to duplicate the effort. This could be a low scoring, run-oriented game by both teams. We expect Rivers to have a solid season. He just may not light up the scoreboard this week like he did last Sunday.
Running Back
- Top 200 ranking: 16
- Weekly ranking: 32
- Difference: -16
Many fantasy owners were disappointed in Gore's debut as a Colt. In fairness, it was against the extremely tough Buffalo Bills defense. We do not like his chances any more this Monday night at home against the New York Jets. Sure, Gore will have some great games. But, those will be buoyed by touchdowns and we are not expecting a lot of scoring in this game. It might be better to seek out better options this week if possible.
- Top 200 ranking: 17
- Weekly ranking: 10
- Difference: -7
Hill is underrated by most of the fantasy football community. He is coming off a strong game against the Oakland Raiders last week. The powerful runner and the Bengals offense will host the Charger this week. As a whole, the San Diego defense is strong and will look to make Andy Dalton throw often to beat them. The Bengals back is still a fantasy RB2, but expectations should be tempered.
- Top 200 ranking: 17
- Weekly ranking: 24
- Difference: -7
The Miami coaching staff showed little faith in Miller last week against Washington. This week, in a game in Jacksonville, we do not like his chances of denting the stiff Jaguars defense that held Jonathan Stewart in check last Sunday. There will be better matchups in the coming weeks. Once again, temper expectations.
Wide Receiver
- Top 200 ranking: 5
- Weekly ranking: 14
- Difference: -9
Green was open a few times against Oakland last week but quarterback Andy Dalton missed him or did not want to take the chance throwing the ball down the field. This week, the superstar pass catcher faces the same San Diego Chargers defense that held Calvin Johnson in check a week ago. While Green is a star, the Chargers defense will be ready to stop – or at least slow down – Green. In addition, this contest could be lower scoring than many expect with two solid defenses facing off.
- Top 200 ranking: 3
- Weekly ranking: 7
- Difference: -4
Thomas was able to gain separation against the Baltimore defense a week ago, but Peyton Manning struggled to put much zip on his passes. This limited the downfield air attack of the Broncos. The Thursday night clash in Kansas City could see the Chiefs secondary closing down on the crossing routes and make Manning beat them over the top. If so, this would limit Thomas' upside for fantasy owners. Still, he is a stud and should be inserted into fantasy lineups weekly.
- Top 200 ranking: 23
- Weekly ranking: 31
- Difference: -8
Adams has big shoes to fill in the Packers offense after the loss of Jordy Nelson to the knee injury. The second-year receiver played well against the Bears a week ago and could emerge as the second receiver for Aaron Rodgers as early as next week. Against the Seattle Seahawks this Sunday, we do not have high hopes for the much-awaited breakout game. Adams' time is coming. Just not this week.
Tight End
- Top 200 ranking: 2
- Weekly ranking: 9
- Difference: -7
Many fantasy owners see the stat line for Graham last week against the Rams and expect that type of fantasy production each week. Well, the reason was that the Seahawks were playing from behind – and passing often. This is not a common occurrence. The only hope for a monster Graham output this week in Green Bay is for Seattle to get behind and throw to catch up. Against an Aaron Rodgers-led team, it is entirely possible. But, we expect the Packers to focus on stopping the ex-Saints star. Graham is still an obvious fantasy starter, just one with limited upside.
- Top 200 ranking: 5
- Weekly ranking: 11
- Difference: -6
Last week, the Jaguars focused on stopping the lone receiving threat on the Panthers offense, Olsen. The matchups get easier after this Sunday, but the matchup against the Texans is a tough one to expect an elite performance. Cam Newton will be under pressure most of the contest.
Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback. Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.
