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This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players.
Quarterback
- Top 200 ranking: 4
- Weekly ranking: 15
- Difference: -11
The Saints host the Panthers in a game the Saints need to win to keep any sliver of playoffs hopes alive. Carolina brings an undefeated record to town, along with a great pass defense. We do not like Brees' chances of having a big fantasy game. Sure, there is a slight possibility of the New Orleans pass offense getting garbage time numbers while throwing often, trying to keep up. There will be better fantasy matchups in the coming weeks.
- Top 200 ranking: 8
- Weekly ranking: 23
- Difference: -15
The Chargers host the Broncos after winning on the road last week in Jacksonville. Can San Diego make it two in a row? If so, the game will be low scoring. The Denver pass defense is stout, with a strong pairing of pass rush and great cornerbacks. There is the possibility that the Broncos come out flat after the huge win over the Patriots on Sunday night. Rivers is a tough quarterback to recommend in this contest.
Running Back
- Top 200 ranking: 5
- Weekly ranking: 15
- Difference: -10
Johnson steps into the starting role after Chris Johnson was lost for the year (barring a Super Bowl appearance) and Andre Ellington will miss the game with a turf toe injury. The rookie will get the majority of snaps at running back against the St. Louis Rams. The problem is the Rams run defense is one of the league bests. We envision fewer rushing attempts for Arizona in the contest paired with more Carson Palmer pass attempts. Johnson will have better matchups in the next couple of weeks.
- Top 200 ranking: 13
- Weekly ranking: 27
- Difference: -14
Bernard has played well, putting up fantasy points even while splitting touches with Jeremy Hill. The game against the Browns this week should be one where Hill gets most of the second-half touches as the Bengals salt away the clock. Cleveland is a mess after the debacle on Monday night. We have a tough time believing the Browns will put up much of a fight.
- Top 200 ranking: 7
- Weekly ranking: 16
- Difference: -9
Gurley has been impressive as a rookie. We love his future. The outlook for this game is not as rosy. Gurley and the Rams soggy offense hosts the Cardinals. We do not expect Case Keenum and the St. Louis offense to be able to keep pace with Carson Palmer and company. This will lead to fewer rushing attempts for Gurley and the Rams become one-dimensional early in the contest. Last week, Gurley only had 19 rushing yards. Also concerning are Gurley's six consecutive games with less PPR fantasy points than the week before.
Wide Receiver
- Top 200 ranking: 12
- Weekly ranking: 21
- Difference: -9
With the Panthers – and Josh Norman – coming to town, we do not like Cooks' chances of putting up solid fantasy numbers this week. He has enjoyed a couple of big games this season, but none against the caliber of defense Cooks will see in Carolina. The Panthers are the seventh worst matchup for your fantasy wide receiver.
- Top 200 ranking: 17
- Weekly ranking: 31
- Difference: -14
Evans has immense potential but battles consistency like many young receivers. The game against the Falcons will be a tough one for the youngster. Atlanta is the second worst defense pass defense for fantasy owners of wide receivers, right behind Denver. That is great company for a defense many doubted early in the season. The Falcons will come into the game riding a four-game losing streak and looking to contain the Buccaneers offense.
- Top 200 ranking: 11
- Weekly ranking: 19
- Difference: -8
Johnson has not been able to put up the numbers expected after the loss of Keenan Allen for the season. He has become the top wide receiver target (by default) for Philip Rivers, but that means seeing lots of attention for opposing defenses. The game against the great cornerbacks of Denver will pose a difficult task for the veteran Johnson. The Broncos are the top defense in holding opposing wide receivers under wraps. We do not like his chances of topping 75 receiving yards in the contest.
Tight End
- Top 200 ranking: 1
- Weekly ranking: 4
- Difference: -3
Barnidge has been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL this season. After the Gronkowski and Graham injuries, Barnidge becomes the TE1 in the Top 200. The matchup against the Bengals will be a tough one for the journeyman tight end. We still advise starting him, just with less upside after the Josh McCown injury against a quality defense.
Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback. Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.
