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This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players.
Quarterback
- Top 200 ranking: 11
- Weekly ranking: 17
- Difference: -6
Roethlisberger and the Steelers take their collective playoff hopes up to the Pacific Northwest to meet the Seahawks. Seattle is a hungry team, backed into a corner. This will be a great game for fans as Pittsburgh will match strength in the passing game against Seattle's talented secondary.
- Top 200 ranking: 15
- Weekly ranking: 23
- Difference: -8
Romo looked rusty last week against Miami, but his play was a huge upgrade over the quarterbacks who filled in during his seven-week absence. On Thanksgiving, Dallas hosts Carolina. We expect the Panthers defense to give Romo and the pass offense problems. There are better options, like Brian Hoyer, on the waiver wire.
Running Back
Mark Ingram
- Top 200 ranking: 3
- Weekly ranking: 13
- Difference: -10
Ingram has quietly played so well that he has kept C.J. Spiller on the sideline. He has shown power running and a threat out of the backfield as a receiver. This week's game in Houston will be a tougher contest than most expect. The Texans defense, especially along the front seven, has played better the past few games.
- Top 200 ranking: 22
- Weekly ranking: 42
- Difference: -20
The Browns are team in turmoil. Coming out of the bye week, Cleveland benched quarterback Johnny Manziel for his behavior over the weekend. The game against Baltimore will be harder for the host Browns than many expect, even with the Ravens losing several offensive stars. Johnson has flashed potential. The issue is that he plays on a poor team which will not commit to him for consistent touches each week.
- Top 200 ranking: 6
- Weekly ranking: 16
- Difference: -10
Williams has put up very good numbers while filling in for the injured LeVeon Bell. This week's matchup in Seattle will be a stiff test for the Pittsburgh running game. The veteran is still a fantasy RB2 and the matchups get easier in the coming weeks.
Wide Receiver
- Top 200 ranking: 9
- Weekly ranking: 22
- Difference: -13
Bryant is still getting up to speed after the foot injury which cost him several games. Facing the Panthers secondary on Thanksgiving afternoon is not a way to get on track. We cannot advise benching Bryant, but expectations should be tempered.
- Top 200 ranking: 7
- Weekly ranking: 27
- Difference: -20
Just like with Roethlisberger above, we do not like the chances of the Steelers passing game putting up big numbers in Seattle. We expect Antonio Brown to still get his numbers, with the help of coordinator Todd Haley. But, Bryant should be limited on the big plays down the field. This is where he feasts and will not be able to shake free.
- Top 200 ranking: 14
- Weekly ranking: 36
- Difference: -22
Jeffery missed last week's loss to Denver due to shoulder and groin injuries, but hopes to play against Green Bay Thanksgiving evening. We doubt Jeffery is fully healed for the contest after not being able to suit up just a few days ago. The wintery conditions of Green Bay will not help Jeffery's chances of putting up huge numbers. We like him as a “what-the-heck flex” play, just not his usual high-upside WR2 status. The good news is that Jeffery should be poised for a strong Week 13 with the extra rest.
Tight End
- Top 200 ranking: 13
- Weekly ranking: 16
- Difference: -3
We expect Bennett to be extremely limited by the rib injury which has hindered him the past few weeks. Given the short week, and the game outside in the frozen tundra, the rib injury could cause Bennett to be used in a limited fashion. We suggest proceeding with extreme caution.
- Top 200 ranking: 9
- Weekly ranking: 14
- Difference: -5
Gillmore has been a pleasant surprise for the Ravens. The Baltimore offense is a in disarray with the injuries decimating the skill positions. It might take Matt Schaub a few weeks to get up to speed. In addition, the Browns are in the top one-third of defenses holding fantasy tight ends in check.
Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback. Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.
