This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players.
Quarterback
- Top 200 ranking: 6
- Weekly ranking: 17
- Difference: -11
Palmer and the high-flying Cardinals offense will get a stiff test this week as they travel to the Pacific Northwest to meet the Seahawks. Yes, the Seattle defense has not lived up to it reputation. But, Richard Sherman and the rest of the secondary remain, and this is the Seahawks' chance to make up ground in the division. Given the locale of the contest, the scoring might be lower than most anticipate.
- Top 200 ranking: 10
- Weekly ranking: 23
- Difference: -13
Mariota is coming off a great performance last week. He threw for four touchdowns in the upset victory over the Saints. However, the game against the stout Carolina defense will be a tough test for the rookie. Not having Kendall Wright in the lineup will put even more pressure on the young quarterback.
Running Back
- Top 200 ranking: 18
- Weekly ranking: 21
- Difference: -3
This ranking assumes McCoy will play on Thursday night, even with the sprain to his shoulder (A/C joint) suffered in the win Sunday. The strong play of Karlos Williams could help the Buffalo coaches decide to either use McCoy sparingly or make him inactive. There is still almost half of the season remaining so there is no reason to risk re-injury on the short week. So, even if he suits up, there is risk of decreased usage.
- Top 200 ranking: 21
- Weekly ranking: 26
- Difference: -5
Chris Johnson has a couple of things working against him this week. First of all, the game in Seattle will not be an easy one to rack up big yards on the ground. The Seahawks defense is the second best at containing opposing tailbacks. In addition, Andre Ellington and David Johnson are fully healthy now with the Cardinals coming off the bye. While we still like Johnson's renewed talent, this might not be a great week to hold high expectations.
- Top 200 ranking: 16
- Weekly ranking: 34
- Difference: -18
Murray slid five spots in the Top 200 Running Back rankings. If not, this Difference would be even larger. The game against the Vikings will be a tough contest for the Raiders running attack. Minnesota is the seventh best defense at holding opposing running backs under wraps. Add in the concussion Murray suffered in Week 9 and it is easy to see why many pundits recommend keeping the emerging star on the bench this week. He is iffy to be cleared of the concussion in time to play.
Wide Receiver
- Top 200 ranking: 13
- Weekly ranking: 22
- Difference: -9
Decker has quietly had a strong fantasy season for his owners. He has been consistent in putting up quality numbers. The veteran pass catcher is WR17 in PPR points per game average. He has scored between 11.70 and 23.70 fantasy points every game. While still a fantasy WR2, expectations should be tempered as we expect the game against Buffalo to be hard fought and likely low scoring.
- Top 200 ranking: 6
- Weekly ranking: 10
- Difference: -4
Fitzgerald has experienced quite the resurgence this season. He looks spry for a player well into his 30s. This week, Fitzgerald should see plenty of Richard Sherman. These two have had some tussles in recent years. We still have the future Hall of Famer ranked as a fantasy WR1 this week, just not at his usual elite level.
- Top 200 ranking: 15
- Weekly ranking: 28
- Difference: -13
Bryant will get Tony Romo back in just one week. Fantasy owners are waiting with baited breath. Having Matt Cassel under center limits all Dallas pass catchers. Also, keep in mind that Bryant injured his knee late in the game against the Eagles. There is a chance that he either misses the game against Tampa Bay, or is used as a decoy in the contest. Use at your own peril, but we could never fault anyone for playing Bryant as long as he is on the field for game time.
- Top 200 ranking: 8
- Weekly ranking: 12
- Difference: -4
Much like Eric Decker above, we do not like Marshall's chances of blowing the top off his career highs in the divisional game against Buffalo. He is a solid fantasy starter, just not a favorite to outproduce the upper echelon receivers.
Tight End
- Top 200 ranking: 4
- Weekly ranking: 10
- Difference: -6
Kelce and the Chiefs meet a fired up Broncos defense fresh off the loss to the Colts. Denver has the speed and size at linebacker to stay with the freakishly athletic Kelce. We expect this game to be relatively low scoring, with few opportunities for Kelce to find the end zone.
- Top 200 ranking: 6
- Weekly ranking: 9
- Difference: -3
Graham has slowly worked his way into a larger role in the Seattle pass offense. He gets targets, just not as many as when Drew Brees was throwing him the ball. We expect the Cardinals defense to show plenty of respect to the big tight end, not allowing him to run free up the seam.
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