Each week we'll be providing a review of the Big 12 conference action, with an emphasis on what we can expect going forward.
TEXAS TECH AT KANSAS
Game Recap: What initially looked like it was going to be a standard laugher involving the winless Jayhawks, suddenly turned into an interesting game when Kansas scored two quick touchdowns in the fourth quarter to slice the Texas Tech lead to 23-20. Kansas had the ball deep in their own territory with a little over four minutes to go and Twitter was beginning to recognize that lowly Kansas was in a position to potentially win a game. Unfortunately for the Lawrence faithful, freshman quarterback Ryan Willis threw a pick six that effectively ended the comeback.
Key Players: Ryan Willis showed good poise, a big arm, and solid accuracy in this game. He made a particularly impressive throw on a 4th and 1 play for a 25 yard touchdown that got Kansas’s comeback underway. People are rightfully buzzing about him as potentially being the best Kansas quarterback since Todd Reesing. Unfortunately for Willis and Kansas, they’ve now faced the weakest Big 12 defenses, with the best opportunity left on the schedule to possibly use Willis as a punt at QB coming a month from now against TCU. Running back De’Andre Mann made a material impact on offense, rushing for 107 yards on 15 carries. He split time with Taylor Cox and Ke’aun Kinner, and we wouldn’t expect Mann to emerge as a consistent option going forward.
Patrick Mahomes had his worst game of the season in what was widely perceived as a plum matchup, throwing for 359 yards and one touchdown. At his likely heightened price point, there will be better matchup plays this weekend than Mahomes going up against a very tough Oklahoma Sooner pass defense. Deandre Washington took full advantage of the soft Kansas run defense, busting out for 152 yards and a touchdown. The matchup against Oklahoma is theoretically a good one, as the Sooners give up 158.8 yards per game on the ground, but Texas Tech likely won’t be running the ball much if Oklahoma jumps out to an early lead. Jakeem Grant failed to score for just the second time this season, but still caught six passes for 76 yards. The role of many of the Texas Tech receivers is currently in flux, but Grant is the one constant pass catching option in this offense. Reginald Davis scored a touchdown while Devin Lauderdale hauled in five passes for 50 yards. Both players were expected to be productive coming into this season, but injuries and ineffectiveness have limited the duo’s output and reliability. Consider them GPP plays only for the time being. Zach Austin bounced back from a disappointing performance against Iowa State, leading the team in both catches and yards with 8 grabs for 80 yards. Considering the lack of depth that Texas Tech has at the Inside Receiver position relative to Outside Receiver, we feel Austin is the safest bet for weekly targets behind Grant.
Key Injuries: None.
Players to Watch: Kansas receiver Tre’ Parmalee missed last week’s game against Baylor, but produced 84 yards and a touchdown on five catches against Texas Tech. He’s now scored in the last two games that he’s played and is the clear number one option in the Kansas passing game. While that isn’t the most compelling statement, with Ryan Willis in command and willing to throw downfield, it will at least be worth a look to see how Parmalee is priced this week. He’s on the radar as a potentially minimum priced option.
OKLAHOMA at KANSAS STATE
Game Recap: This game was over by halftime, as Oklahoma jumped out to 35-0 lead and largely took the pedal off the gas in the second half, cruising to a 55-0 win.
Key Players: Baker Mayfield bounced back from last week’s disaster of an effort against Texas, throwing for 282 yards and five touchdowns. The yardage output was surely depressed by Oklahoma not having to throw in the second half. Samaje Perine once again struggled to get anything going, only totaling 56 yards on the ground. Meanwhile Joe Mixon turned 15 carries into 73 yards and a touchdown, while also catching three passes for 29 yards and an additional score. This week’s matchup with Texas Tech’s awful run defense is going to offer Oklahoma a chance to finally get the ground game really rolling and undoubtedly both running backs will be popular targets this week. Sterling Shepard scored twice, while catching four passes for 83 yards and he would have had a far bigger game if Oklahoma had been forced to throw after the second quarter. Shepard’s price has finally seen a correction in recent weeks and assuming it remains reasonable, he and Mayfield will be a great potential stack pairing against Texas Tech.
Kansas State only amounted 110 yards of total offense in what will likely go down as one of the worst offensive efforts in the FBS this season. Starting quarterback Joe Hubener was completely ineffective and was replaced by quarterback/wide receiver Kody Cook. Though Cook looked great in his last appearance at quarterback against Oklahoma State, he played very poorly against Oklahoma, only completing one of eight passes, and rushing for 19 yards on 11 carries. After the game when asked about whether Cook or Hubener would start at quarterback against Texas this week, Coach Bill Snyder said that he ‘can't answer the question right now.’ Considering his wide receiver eligibility, the possibility that Cook sees extended time at quarterback against Texas makes him worth consideration in tournaments and this situation needs to be monitored leading up to game day.
Key Injuries: None.
Players to Watch: Mark Andrews caught a three yard touchdown pass and now has four scores on only nine receptions in 2015. He rarely sees the field when Oklahoma isn’t in the red zone, but at 6’6” he’s someone that Mayfield looks for near the goal line. He’s a solid bet to score this week in a game in which Oklahoma should spend plenty of time inside the Texas Tech 20 yard line.
TCU at IOWA STATE
Game Recap: Iowa State managed to keep this game close for a while, and only trailed 24-21 going into the break. However, the Cyclones wouldn’t score in the second half and TCU pulled away with a 45-21 victory.
Key Players: Mike Warren continued to dominate touches in the Iowa State backfield, carrying the ball 22 times for 78 yards and a touchdown. He’s clearly going to have to continue to deal with Joshua Thomas vulturing goal line touches, as Thomas was able to score from two yards out and now has three short touchdown runs in the last two games. Warren’s price is now in line with his recent production so we don’t really see him as a value heading into this week’s matchup with Baylor. Allen Lazard had his best game of the season, catching five passes for 147 yards and a score. He’ll be a popular pick against Baylor in a game that the Cyclones will inevitably be forced to throw the ball early and often.
Trevone Boykin turned in another signature performance, throwing for 436 yards and four touchdowns and additionally running for 74 yards and another score. Josh Doctson put a scare into the hearts of the TCU faithful, leaving the game and going to the locker room briefly in the first half with a hip pointer. He would return late in the second quarter, and ended with another awesome performance, amassing 190 yards and two touchdowns on ten catches. Aaron Green failed to take advantage of what was perceived to be a plus matchup, only rushing for seven yards on 12 carries. He doesn’t see the volume that other top running backs do, so he needs to make the most of his carries to hit value on a weekly basis, and as a result is best utilized as a tournament option even when he has a great matchup.
Key Injuries: KaVontae Turpin left in the first half after taking a big hit and was escorted to the locker room by the training staff. His situation was later referred to as an ‘upper body injury’ and Coach Gary Patterson said that he didn’t think ‘it’s a season thing’ (meaning that he thinks Turpin will play again in 2015.) While that quote isn’t over helpful, it would be best to assume that Turpin will potentially miss TCU’s next game against West Virginia.
Players to Watch: Kolby Listenbee made his return to box score relevancy, hauling in six passes for 101 yards and a touchdown. If Turpin is forced to miss time, Listenbee’s stock would see a bump. Normally, we’d only recommend him as a GPP option, but two weeks from now in a short Thursday slate, Listenbee might be an option for cash games, depending on price.
WEST VIRGINIA at BAYLOR
Game Recap: After four minutes it looked like this game was heading into shootout territory, with Baylor sandwiching a long West Virginia touchdown with two quick scores of their own. From there though, Baylor was in control, and rolled to a 62-38 win.
Key Players: Skyler Howard’s stat line looks solid, with 289 yards and four touchdowns, but the quarterback largely struggled against an aggressive Baylor defense. He’s now played poorly in each of West Virginia’s last three games, all of which have resulted in losses. Still, he’ll be on the radar two Thursdays from now against a TCU defense that has been torched on multiple occasions this season. Wendell Smallwood was productive, turning 14 touches into 101 yards. He’ll use the bye week to continue his recovery form a lingering ankle injury and should be a big part of the Mountaineers’ game plan against TCU. Shelton Gibson continued to prove that he’s the only reliable source of production at receiver for West Virginia, catching three passes for 92 yards and a score, and also returning a kickoff for a touchdown. His price has been reasonable in recent weeks, and if trend continues, he’ll be a nice option against TCU.
Seth Russell had one of the biggest games of the entire 2015 season, throwing for 380 yards and five touchdowns while rushing for 160 yards and an additional score – and he didn’t play the final nine minutes of the game. Russell will once again be a top option against Iowa State, but more conservative totals should be expected in a game in which Baylor might be resting their starters early in the second half. Shock Linwood’s numbers were ordinary this week, running for 84 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries. The Iowa State run defense is one of the worst in the country, and Linwood should be expected to produce a significantly line this upcoming weekend. Corey Coleman, KD Cannon, and Jay Lee accounted for all but one of the 21 Baylor completions. Don’t always expect that concise of a distribution from Baylor, as other receivers will see action in blowouts, but this is a fair representation of what can be expected when Baylor faces a challenging opponent. Corey Coleman continued his dominant season, going for 199 yards and three scores on 10 catches. He’s now up to 16 touchdowns in only six games. KD Cannon had what was, for him, a very unusual game, catching a season high seven catches for only 92 yards. Cannon is usually used as a deep threat, but on Saturday was used mostly on screen plays, leading to the relatively low yards-per-catch average. We maintain that he’s best used in tournaments, as he will have huge games at some point this season, it’s just a matter of when. Jay Lee scored twice on three catches and, similarly to Cannon, has the makeup of a tournament option most weeks.
Key Injuries: Wide receiver Jovon Durante was hurt on a deep pass attempt on fourth down late in the third quarter. Filling in his place were Ka’Raun White (Kevin White’s brother) and third string quarterback David Sills. The messy West Virginia receiver situation gets even messier.
Players to Watch: Devin Chafin saw action for the first time in four games, returning from a hamstring injury. He only carried one time for one yard but it was a goal line attempt. His return probably means fewer touchdowns down the line for Shock Linwood more than it results in any stand-alone value for Chafin, but he’s worth remembering in case one of Baylor’s other running backs goes down with an injury.