Each week we'll be providing a review of the Big 12 conference action, with an emphasis on what we can expect going forward.
TULSA AT OKLAHOMA
Game Recap: The outcome was never really in doubt, but Tulsa managed to score enough points against what was previously a fairly stingy Oklahoma defense, to allow the Oklahoma offensive starters to play the duration of this game. Tulsa had no answer for the Sooners’ offense, whether it was running the ball or passing the ball, Oklahoma was able to move the ball with little resistance. This game represents the ideal set up from a fantasy perspective: a high powered offense (Oklahoma) going up against a porous defense (Tulsa) whose offense can also score.
Key Players: Baker Mayfield delivered what will likely go down as one of the signature fantasy performances of 2015, throwing for 487 yards and four touchdowns, while running for 85 yards and another two scores. With the many projected shootouts that Oklahoma will play, he’ll be a top quarterback play on many occasions going forward. Oklahoma’s new offensive philosophy was on full display today, emphasizing the pass, while keeping the defense honest with the running game. A lot of what Samaje Perine did last year was because of Oklahoma’s scheme and offensive line play, and this year with neither of those working in his favor, the first three games have largely been a disappointment. While Perine’s numbers from Saturday look great, 152 yards and a touchdown, the majority of those yards came while Oklahoma was trying to kill the clock late in the fourth quarter against a defense that was clearly gassed. Prior to Oklahoma’s final two drives against Tulsa, Perine had amassed rushing totals of 33, 78, and 59 yards in the first three weeks. His price will remain high when Oklahoma faces West Virginia in two weeks, but he won’t be a recommended play. Sterling Shepard had a nice statistical day, catching eight balls for 144 yards, but is still only being targeted as if he’s just a face in the crowd. There are too many viable receivers on this team to consider Shepard a top, reliable play, especially considering his expected price. Joe Mixon’s usage continues to be encouraging, but his price is soon likely to catch up to his production. Seven catches, 79 totals yards and a touchdown was a solid output on Satuday and he has established himself as a key part of the offense.
Key Injuries: None
Players to Watch: Mark Andrews is looking like one of the better boom/bust options at tight end this year. He doesn’t actually line up at tight end in the traditional sense, but Oklahoma seems to feature his big frame in the red zone. Three catches for 83 yards and two touchdowns should help his cause to see an expanded role. Andrews’ price will definitely be on the rise, and with Oklahoma having so many receivers, he’ll probably never be a secure cash game play, but he’s on the radar for tournaments going forward.
LOUISIANA TECH at KANSAS STATE
Game Recap: Kansas State had the lead late in the fourth quarter until Louisiana Tech tied the score at 23 as time expired in regulation. It would then take three overtimes, but the Wildcats eventually vanquished Louisiana Tech 39-33.
Key Players: At this point, it’s become clear that Joe Hubener can be viewed as a competent game manager, but won’t be evolving into a difference maker from a fantasy perspective. Hubener only rushed for 10 yards on Saturday even though the Kansas State offense is one that will call designed quarterback runs throughout the game. He threw for 195 yards and three scores, but considering that two of those touchdowns came in overtime, it’s difficult to view those numbers with optimism. Hubener will only warrant consideration in projected shootouts if he’s cheaply priced, or on short slates, and can largely be ignored on a weekly basis. Justin Silmon seems to really be taking hold of this backfield, becoming the first Kansas State running back to run for more than 100 yards since 2013. He did so on 24 carries and it will be interesting to see how he’s priced when the team squares off with Oklahoma State in two weeks. Charles Jones, unfortunately still sees snaps in the wildcat formation when Kansas State is in the red zone, and Winston Dimel is a threat to vulture touchdowns as well, but those options have been largely ineffective. Silmon should see at least fifteen carries a game going forward and will be a player to target in good matchups.
Key Injuries: None
Players to Watch: Kody Cook caught four ball for 73 yards and two scores, including a ridiculous game-winning catch, against Louisiana Tech, but only had four catches on the year coming into this game. The Kansas State passing game currently hasn’t been effective enough to support a reliable fantasy receiver, but given the team’s need for playmakers as they enter Big 12 play, Cook is at least worth monitoring.
UTSA at OKLAHOMA STATE
Game Recap: Facing an undermanned, inexperienced UTSA squad, Oklahoma State’s status as victor was never in doubt. While the 69-14 score certainly conveys that the Cowboys dominated the game, the most telling stat might be the seven turnovers that UTSA committed.
Key Players: Mason Rudolph wasn’t needed much, but continued his routine of spreading the ball around, throwing for 280 yards and two touchdowns. Twelve Oklahoma State receivers caught passes on the day, and while David Glidden once again led the team in receiving, this time with three catches, 67 yards and a score, we can’t recommend taking a spin on this roulette wheel. Oklahoma State finally got the running game going as Chris Carson rushed for 104 yards and two scores on 17 carries. While this is a welcome sight after two poor performances to open the year, it probably says more about the opponent than it does Oklahoma State’s future prospects on the ground. That being said, Oklahoma State now takes on the Texas Longhorns who just surrendered 280 yards on the ground to California, a team that was missing its starting running back. Make sure to remember to look for Carson’s price point when games open up this week – he won’t be a top overall play, but if he’s underpriced he’ll need to be considered.
Key Injuries: None
Players to Watch: Brandon Sheperd and James Washington continue to disappoint, but Oklahoma State has yet to be truly tested and it will be interesting to see what the passing game looks like against a more formidable opponent. Will the receiver rotation tighten up as conference play begins? While it’s not overly likely considering the history of this offense, both of these guys are talented enough to turn around their seasons.
TEXAS TECH at ARKANSAS
Game Recap: It was clear from the outset Saturday that the rematch of a game in which Arkansas won 49-28 last year, was going to be nothing like the 2014 version. Texas Tech moved the ball at will early, scoring on a methodical opening drive and then punching it again late in the first quarter. Arkansas tied the game midway through the second quarter, only to see Texas Tech pull ahead again on a 72 yard touchdown pass from receiver Jakeem Grant to Reginald Davis. The Razorbacks tied it before the half, but Texas Tech would pull ahead for good on the first drive of the second half on Patrick Mahomes’s second rushing touchdown of the day. The 35-24 end result was shocking to many, and it’s apparent that this year’s Texas Tech squad is going to be competitive throughout the duration of the season.
Key Players: Patrick Mahomes had what statistically will likely go down as his worst game of 2015, throwing for only 243 yards and one touchdown; though he salvaged his stat line by running for 58 yards and two more scores. Mahomes now gets a TCU defense that has looked extremely suspect early on, giving up 37 points this past weekend to the burgeoning SMU Mustangs. While TCU will likely be heavy favorites, we feel this will be a close game and Mahomes should have a huge fantasy day. Jakeem Grant continued to show why he’s one of the best cash game receivers in the country on a weekly basis, hauling in eight balls for 75 yards, while additionally throwing a 75 yard touchdown pass. Though the touchdown toss was certainly fluky, it serves as a reminder how committed Texas Tech is to ensuring that they get the ball in Grant’s hands as often as possible. He’s now scored via kickoff, run, and pass (both catching and throwing) – all in only three games. Devin Lauderdale played against Arkansas, but failed to catch a pass, highlighting why he’s best used as a GPP play. Deandre Washington had a solid day rushing for 75 yards while also catching three passes for 16 yards, but won’t be a recommended matchup against TCU, with Texas Tech likely needing to throw even more often than usual to remain competitive.
Key Injuries: None
Players to Watch: Reginald Davis turned in another great effort securing five passes for 115 yards and two touchdowns. He’s now had back to back strong games and if Dylan Cantrell should continue to be sidelined with back spasms this weekend - which is looking increasingly likely with Coach Kingsbury now saying that Cantrell is potentially a redshirt candidate - Davis will need to be on your radar for the matchup with TCU.
CALIFORNIA at TEXAS
Game Recap: Making only his second career start, Jerrod Heard had Texas ahead of California by a score of 24-14 late in the first half. From there, Jared Goff would lead the Golden Bears to 31 straight points, building a 45-24 lead by the end of the third quarter. Texas furiously rallied in the final period, scoring three consecutive touchdowns, the last with on 1:11 left to play. Unfortunately for the Longhorns, disaster struck when Texas kicker, Nick Rose, missed the extra point that would have tied the game, giving Cal a 45-44 victory.
Key Players: Jerrod Heard broke the Texas record for all-purpose yards in a game with 527 – 163 rushing and 364 through the air. While Heard’s rushing ability is certainly special, let’s remember that the passing output came against the team that was far and away the worst passing defense in the FBS last season. Heard should see a substantial price hike this week and we’ll want to see further confirmation of his passing ability before recommending him for cash games, though he’ll certainly be on the GPP radar thanks to his elite rushing talent. Heard’s propensity for calling his own number, coupled with the emergence of D’onta Foreman, spells trouble for Jonathan Gray. Though Gray scored twice against Cal, he only saw 11 carries and while Texas’s offense as a whole is on the upswing, Gray’s role in the offense is trending down.
Key Injuries: None
Players to Watch: Daje Johnson turned five catches into 145 yards. He’s had huge games in the past, and his big play ability is not in question, but he’s been so inconsistent throughout his career that it’s difficult to place much faith in his future prospects based on this performance. John Burt turned in his second straight notable game, this time catching four passes for 69 yards. Neither of these guys are options in cash games this week at this point, but could pay off in a mini stack with Heard in GPP lineups.
SMU at TCU
Game Recap: When TCU opened up a 42-17 lead early in the third quarter, it looked like the Horned Frogs would be resting their starters for much of the second half. SMU would come roaring back, scoring 20 straight points and closing the gap to only five points with eight minutes to go. From there, TCU managed to avoid the upset attempt, scoring two more touchdowns to cap a fantasy bonanza that produced 96 points and 1,228 yards.
Key Players: Trevone Boykin delivered a signature performance, throwing for 454 yards and five touchdowns, while rushing for 50 more yards and another score. Expect another huge game against Texas Tech this weekend in what should be a more closely contested battle than last year’s 82-27 TCU victory. Aaron Green delivered his first big performance of 2015 after two subpar outings to open the season. His 164 yards and two touchdowns on only 21 carries are a reminder that Green doesn’t need a ton of touches to have a big day. He’s one of the more explosive running backs in the country and has a dream matchup against the Texas Tech defense that is giving up an average of 257 rushing yards per game, sixth most in the FBS. Josh Doctson continues to perform at an elite level, hauling in five passes for 171 yards and two scores against SMU. He’s one of the best receivers in the country and is the only receiver in this offense that can be counted on to produce on a weekly basis.
Key Injuries: None
Players to Watch: Kolby Listenbee has bounced back nicely after a poor first game against Minnesota, catching two passes for 51 yards and a score against SMU and going for 142 yards the week prior. Despite the encouraging trend, Listenbee remains best suited for your tournament lineups due to the lack of targets he generally sees in an offense that spreads the ball around.
IOWA STATE at TOLEDO
Game Recap: Coming off of a loss to instate rival Iowa, the Cyclones were tasked with facing a Toledo team that had just shocked America, taking down the 18th ranked Arkansas Razorbacks. Neither Iowa State nor Toledo executed particularly effectively in this game, and when regulation ended, the score was knotted at 20. Two overtimes later, Toledo had knocked off its second straight Power Five school by a score of 30-23.
Key Players: Sam Richardson largely disappointed in this game, only throwing for 269 yards and one score. He’s surrounded by talented receivers in an offense that emphasizes the pass, but even as a senior, Richardson remains frustratingly inconsistent. Speaking of the receivers, it was D’Vario Montgomery’s turn to lead the team in receiving this week, catching four passes for 97 yards and a touchdown. We saw Montgomery have some very nice lines last year, but there are too many options in this offense to trust any of them at this point.
Key Injuries: None
Players to Watch: Freshman Mike Warren took advantage of his first start at the running back position, rushing for 126 yards on 21 carries. Even though he had a costly fumble at the end of the first half that cost Iowa State points, the team stuck with him and he amassed 72 of his yards after the break. For reference of how welcome Warren’s contribution was this week, Iowa State had only rushed for a total of 140 yards as a team in its first two games. While the Cyclones have a bye this week, the matchup against an awful Kansas run defense on October 3rd will present a great opportunity to use Warren in your lineups, likely at a cheap price tag.
