Each week we'll be providing a review of the Big 12 conference action, with an emphasis on what we can expect going forward.
Kansas State at UTSA
Game Recap: With Jesse Ertz going down last week, Joe Hubener was forced into action, and a road date with UTSA served as the setting of Hubener’s first career start. While Kansas State struggled to move the ball effectively in the first half, and only lead 7-3 at the break, the final two quarters were decidedly one sided, with the Wildcats cruising to a 30-3 victory.
Key Players: While quarterback Joe Hubener’s statistics weren’t overly gaudy, he did lead the team in rushing, with 17 carries for 58 yards and a score, while also throwing for 243 yards. Though Hubener is not the most explosive runner or the most accurate passer, the fact that the team is willing to give him so many carries bodes well for his fantasy potential. He will be an intriguing play as a cheaper DFS option when Kansas State matches up with some of the Big 12’s more porous defenses once conference play begins. The Kansas State running back picture did not get any clearer this weekend, as no running back received more than eight carries. This will be a situation to avoid for the time being.
Key Injuries: None
Players to Watch: Running back Winston Dimel scored his third touchdown of the season, but he mostly operates as a red zone option and is very unlikely to ascend to a full time role. After being talked up by beat writers as the most talented running back on the team this week, Justin Silmon only received six carries, turning them into 40 yards and a touchdown. Charles Jones has fallen down in his chance to claim the starting job, and while Dimel will still likely see red zone work, it makes sense that Silmon eventually takes over as the starting running back. While even then Silmon probably wouldn’t have a tremendous amount of upside, he could initially serve as a sneaky, cheap DFS option.
UTEP at Texas Tech
Game Recap: Similarly to Texas Tech’s season opener, the Red Raider defense gave up enough points in this game to ensure that the starters saw action deep into the second half. Texas Tech ultimately thrashed UTEP 69-20 and this year’s team is looking decidedly similar to last year’s version from a fantasy perspective. The offense should score a ton of points, while the defense will be one to target on a weekly basis once conference play begins.
Key Players: Patrick Mahomes continued his epic start to the season, throwing for 361 yards and four touchdowns, while running for another two scores. Mahomes strikes us as the most skilled quarterback, and best fit, for Coach Kingsbury’s offense, that he has had in his time as coach at Texas Tech. Whereas Davis Webb was a statue in the pocket and Baker Mayfield possessed more moxie than physical talent, Mahomes has a rocket arm and moves very well. His overall skill set is very reminiscent of Johnny Manziel, who Kingsbury coached in his Heisman season. Assuming he can stay healthy, Mahomes can absolutely be the number one overall fantasy quarterback this season. As his price will likely be exceedingly high, Mahomes will be a GPP play this week against Arkansas, in a game that should give us a good idea of how good the 2015 version of Texas Tech Football actually is. Jakeem Grant and Devin Lauderdale continued to function as Mahomes’ top two receivers. Grant caught seven passes for 141 yards and a score and should be viewed as a high floor option moving forward due to the number of targets he receives. Lauderdale only caught two passes for 47 yards and a score, and has significantly more variance to his game than Grant, as he is still being utilized largely as a deep threat. With that being the case, we’d recommend viewing Grant as a cash game option and considering Lauderdale as a target for tournaments. Deandre Washington rushed for 138 yards and a score on 12 carries, and while that’s an impressive output, he’ll likely only be usable in games in which Texas Tech is playing from comfortably ahead, and shouldn’t be on the radar for this week’s showdown with Arkansas.
Key Injuries: Dylan Cantrell once again did not see the field this week, allowing Reginald Davis to start in his place and register 72 yards and a touchdown. Davis would be on the GPP radar if Cantrell continues to miss time.
Players to Watch: Inside receiver Ian Sadler followed up his big week one, with three catches for 49 yards against UTEP. He’s no higher than the team’s third receiving option, but would be worth immediately worth consideration if Grant, Texas Tech’s other inside receiver, were to miss time.
Liberty at West Virginia
Game Recap: The outcome was never in doubt in this one, as West Virginia rolled to a 41-17 victory. The Moutaineers offense has now looked very potent in two games against lesser opponents, and have a week to rest up before taking on Maryland in a week four showdown.
Key Players: Skylar Howard delivered his most efficient performance to date, completing 21 of 26 passes for 263 yards and three touchdowns, while also running for 68 more yards. Howard’s receivers are still not household names at this point nationally, but there should be zero concern moving forward about the potential of this offense. True freshman Jovan Durante caught seven passes for 60 yards and he is the clear number one option in the passing game. It’s unlikely that his week four price will match his standing as the top option in one of the country’s most dynamic offenses, and he’ll be a recommended play against the Terrapins. Shelton Gibson caught three passes 81 yards and a score against Liberty, and while he doesn’t see a high volume of targets, he has the speed to turn every touch he receives into a touchdown. His usage makes him riskier than Durante, but Gibson should be viewed as a great tournament play most weeks, with the potential to turn in huge fantasy performances. While Rushel Shell and Wendell Smallwood both saw substantial playing time with the first team offense, Smallwood was the far more productive of the running back duo, rushing for 88 yards and two scores, while also catching four passes for 24 yards. Shell only turned his 11 carries into 27 yards, and it will be interesting to see how carries are divided in the team’s next game. The running back position in the West Virginia offense has historically been a very productive spot, and if Smallwood were to wrestle away Shell’s allocation of touches, he’d be a very attractive option.
Key Injuries: None
Players to Watch: Daikiel Shorts had yet to score in the first two weeks, but has 133 yards on seven catches. He’s mostly used as a short to intermediate option in the passing game and doesn’t have the upside of Gibson or Durante, but should have a nice floor as the third option in the passing game, a role that could produce decent returns once West Virginia starts facing more challenging opponents, and the starters are forced to play four full quarters.
Stephen F. Austin at TCU
Game Recap: TCU had no trouble taking care of FCS opponent Stephen F. Austin a week after a closely contested battle against Minnesota. The 70-7 score could have been far worse had the TCU starters played more than half the game.
Key Players: Trevone Boykin threw for 285 yards and four scores in a little over a half of playing time. While this was a solid showing, expect a monster game next week against an awful SMU defense. SMU’s offense looks much improved in 2015, and if the Mustangs can score like they have in the first two weeks, Boykin should play into the fourth quarter. He’ll likely be the top quarterback option in the “night slate” this Saturday. Aaron Green only rushed five times this week, but was able to poach two scores in the process. Don’t let the box score fool you, he’s still the top option in the TCU backfield, and shouldn’t have a problem going over 100 yards against SMU. Josh Doctson only had four catches for 81 yards, but his title of top receiver is not in question. He is the kind of player who puts up bigger lines in bigger games, and should bounce back nicely against SMU.
Key Injuries: None
Players to Watch: Kolby Listenbee had TCU’s top receiving output, bouncing back nicely from his poor performance against Minnestota with a stat line of 142 yards and a touchdown. Expect plenty of peaks and valleys from Listenbee in 2015; his ability to put up lines like this is what makes him worth considering in tournaments.
Iowa at Iowa State
Game Recap: Iowa State started off strong behind two first half touchdown passes from Sam Richardson, resulting in a 17-10 halftime lead for the Cyclones. After Iowa scored quickly in the third quarter to tie the game, the score remained deadlocked deep into the fourth quarter before Iowa scored twice in the final three minutes, coming away with a 31-17 victory.
Key Players: Going up against arguably the best defense he will face all season, Sam Richardson was mediocre, throwing for 247 yards and two touchdowns. Historically he’s been a good matchup play against bad defenses, and this upcoming week has a matchup with a Toledo defense that just gave up 412 yards passing to Brandon Allen of Arkansas. He could be a sneaky good play this week. The Iowa State running game is an absolute mess from a fantasy perspective, as four running backs received carries against Iowa. Allen Lazard had another stellar game catching seven balls for 71 yards. Pairing Lazard with Richardson this week is your best bet if you’re looking to stack against the Toledo pass defense. The Iowa State defense gave up 260 yards rushing to Iowa and now faces the fresh legs of Kareem Hunt, who was suspended for Toledo’s first two games. Hunt will be very expensive, but he should have a big game and should absolutely be a running back you consider, regardless of the fact that he’s facing a Power Five opponent.
Key Injuries: None
Players to Watch: In each of the team’s first two games, the Iowa State leading receiver has been a player without an established track record. Last week it was Dondre Daley, and this time against Iowa, Jauan Wesley led the team in receiving yards, pulling in four catches for 76 yards and a touchdown. Quenton Bundrage and D’Vario Montgomery haven’t had big games yet, but are still getting plenty of playing time, and the wide receiver position is exceedingly crowded at the moment in Ames. At this stage, Lazard is the only Cyclone receiver that can be counted on.
Oklahoma at Tennessee
Game Recap: For the second week in a row, Oklahoma struggled to move the ball early, this time trailing 17-3 to Tennessee, through three quarters. Baker Mayfield and the offense got going in the fourth quarter though, scoring twice in the final nine minutes to pull even and send the game to overtime. In the second overtime, Mayfield hooked up with Sterling Shepard for a score and then Tennessee quarterback Josh Dobbs threw a pick to end the game. While it was far from a glamorous effort by Oklahoma, the team leaves Neyland Stadium undoubtedly feeling good about themselves.
Key Players: It’s been somewhat unsettling how long into each of Oklahoma’s first two games it has taken Baker Mayfield to get the offense in gear. Going up against a defense that gave up over 400 yards passing to Matt Johnson of Bowling Green, Mayfield only threw for 187 yards, though he did account for four total touchdowns. Regardless, a tasty matchup is on deck with a Tulsa defense that has given up 953 yards of offense through the first two weeks. Expect a big game from Mayfield. Samaje Perine has been held in check each of the first two weeks, only rushing for 78 yards on 23 carries against Tennessee. Blame can probably be placed on both the young Oklahoma offensive line, the offense’s shift to an Air-Raid offense, as well as the team’s commitment to incorporating Joe Mixon into the game plan. The Tulsa matchup should help Perine get back on track, as the Golden Hurricanes have allowed over 200 yards rushing in each of their first two games. While Sterling Shepard’s stat line ended up looking fine, seven catches for 74 yards and two touchdowns, through two games he’s been targeted as if he’s just another receiver in this offense. Though Mayfield barely looked his way against Tennessee until the fourth quarter, Shepard caught the game tying score to send the game to overtime, as well as the game winning touchdown in OT2. It’s possible that Mayfield will focus on getting Shepard the ball more going forward, as he clearly makes this passing offense go, and the soft matchup against Tulsa should serve as an opportunity for a huge game.
Key Injuries: None
Players to Watch: Joe Mixon’s usage has been very comforting so far this season. He received 12 touches against Tennessee after seeing eight against Akron, and he should be viewed as a cheaper tournament play with nice upside this week against Tulsa.
Memphis at Kansas
Game Recap: Facing one of the better Group of Five teams in the country, Kansas quickly, and surprisingly, jumped out to a 10-0 lead. From there it was all downhill, as the Kansas defense had no chance against the Memphis offense, and Kansas quarterback Montell Cozart was generally ineffective, getting benched in the fourth quarter. The result of a 55-23 Memphis victory reinforces the idea that the Kansas defense is going to be one to pick on every week from a DFS perspective this season.
Key Players: Coach David Beaty announced after that game that Montell Cozart is still Kansas’s starting quarterback, but we shouldn’t expect that that will necessarily be the case for long considering how he’s played. Ke’aun Kinner shined once again, going over 100 rushing yards for the second straight game. The fact that he’s able to accomplish this in a blowout loss bodes well for his future and he’ll continue to be a focal point of Kansas’s offense. Kansas’s next opponent, Rutgers, hasn’t given up very many rushing yards so far this year, but they’ve faced Norfolk State, who was blown out, and Washington State, who doesn’t run the ball at all. It wouldn’t be surprising if Kinner makes it three straight 100 yard games to start the season.
Key Injuries: None
Players to Watch: No receivers have stepped up so far and Kinner is the workhorse running back. If Cozart continues to struggle, it will be interesting to see who emerges as the starting quarterback for Kansas and pilots this Air-Raid offense. Ryan Willis saw time in relief of Cozart in week one, while Deondre Ford replace him against Memphis, though neither of them was particularly impreesive.
Central Arkansas at Oklahoma State
Game Recap: The score says that Oklahoma State had little trouble dismantling FCS foe Central Arkansas, rolling to a 32-8 victory. However, as was the case in the season opener, the offense largely struggled to move the ball on the ground, relying heavily on Mason Rudolph’s right arm. This tendency hasn’t hurt the team so far against inferior opponents, but once conference play begins, you can expect that Big 12 opponents will not respect the Cowboys’ run game and focus on stopping Rudolph. It will be interesting to see if Rudolph proves to be so talented that he’s able to put the team on his shoulders, or if the team’s high aspirations come crashing down.
Key Players: Rudolph threw for 401 yards in this game and isn’t showing any signs of a “sophomore slump.” He’s been spreading the ball around a ton, but while his receivers likely won’t hold any reliable week to week value, Rudolph should be under consideration weekly as a quarterback with a very high floor. Chris Carson is still significantly out touching backup Rennie Childs to this point, receiving 15 carries compared to Childs’ eight, but has not been very productive so far. While the ineffectiveness should be largely blamed on an inexperienced offensive line, this situation should be avoided for the time being. David Glidden had a huge day catching four balls for 145 yards and two touchdowns. He’s sporadically had nice games before but normally functions as a safety blanket for Rudolph and this should be considered more the exception than the norm.
Key Injuries: None
Players to Watch: Both James Washington and Brandon Sheperd continue to disappoint and though they are the two most talented receivers on the team, they’re both players to watch more than actually consider using at this point. This is a full blown “Wide Receiver By Committee” scenario in Stillwater.
Lamar at Baylor
Game Recap: Impossible as it may be to believe, this game was tied at 21 late in the second quarter. Baylor was able to score twice in four minutes before halftime and then opened the third quarter with a quick strike to make it 42-21, but this now marks two straight weeks that Baylor has let lesser opponents hang around. The Bears have off this week and then face Rice in what should be a one-sided affair, but the October 3rd showdown with Texas Tech is looking more intriguing with each passing week.
Key Players: Once again, Seth Russell’s stat line looked a lot better than he did. Three interceptions and a lost fumble against Lamar emphasize the concerns many had coming into this year that Russell was careless with the football. Of course, Russell also made some great plays in this game, highlighted by four touchdown completions to Corey Coleman. There are two main takeaways from this game regarding Russell. First, he did not have his offensive coordinator Ken Briles, who was suspended for the game, and this may have contributed to Russell’s apparent unsteadiness. Second, Baylor has been calling very few designed runs for Russell so far this season. This is likely due to the quality of the opponent, as one of Russell’s greatest assets is his speed, and we expect that when Baylor faces more challenging opponents, Russell’s running ability will be relied upon more. Shock Linwood bounced back from a poor effort against SMU with a 130 yard, three touchdown performance against Lamar. Linwood will continue to share touches with the team’s other running backs, but should lead the team in rushing most weeks. Johnny Jeffeson and Terance Williams both went over 100 yards rushing as well, but most of their yardage was gained in the second half, after the outcome was decided. Corey Coleman’s four touchdowns serve as a reminder that though this Baylor squad has many quality receiving options, he is the top option, and is one of the best receivers nationwide. KD Cannon only caught two passes for 17 yards in this game. There is a ton of risk to Cannon’s game in that he plays inside receiver, traditionally a position targeted less than outside receiver in Baylor’s offense, and his game is very reliant on deep passes. This performance just shows why even though his numbers will likely be elite by season end, he’s got to be considered a weekly GPP option. Jay Lee followed up his three touchdown effort in week one with nine catches and 111 yards against Lamar. He doesn’t have the national acclaim of Cannon quite yet, but as a talented, heavily targeted outside receiver in the Baylor offense, Lee should be viewed as a player with a very high floor and substantial upside moving forward.
Key Injuries: None
Players to Watch: Jarrett Stidham once again relieved Seth Russell in the fourth quarter after the game was well in hand. Stidham has looked great so far, though in limited action against worn down, porous defenses and is certainly living up to the substantial hype. It would not be surprising to see Stidham eventually take Russell’s job, considering how shaky Russell has looked so far, especially if Baylor loses a game or two in what is expected to be a playoff-contending season.
Rice at Texas
Game Recap: Following last week’s disaster against Notre Dame, Texas could not afford to let lowly Rice turn this into a closely contested game. They needed a spark, needed to take care of business, and really needed to generate excitement for a program that has been receiving nothing but negative publicity so far this season. Shortly before kickoff it became apparent that Jerrod Heard would be replacing Tyrone Swoopes as Texas’s starting quarterback. While we all knew that this was inevitable, it is somewhat surprising that the change was made so quickly. Though Heard only attempted seven passes, he looked substantially better than Swoopes ever has, and Coach Charlie Strong officially named Heard the starting quarterback following the 42-28 victory.
Key Players: Heard was the big story in this game. He only completed four passes for 120 yards, but also rushed for 96 yards on 10 attempts. In terms of future expectations, Heard’s rushing ability is on par with any quarterback in the country and he is a threat to score every time he tucks it. While his passing ability is obviously a work in progress, if he was already a proficient passer, he would have won the job before the season started. That being said, Heard did have one very nice 69 yard touchdown pass in which he hit his receiver in stride. This week he gets a California team that will undoubtedly score plenty of points against the Longhorns defense. Heard will need to pass at least somewhat competently for Texas to stay in the game and it will be interesting to see what this offense looks like when they fall behind. Heard was priced as an absolute bargain this past week, and should be significantly more expensive in DFS this week. His running ability, and the potential for this game to be a shootout, makes him worth considering as a tournament option, but he shouldn’t be used in cash games at this point. Starting running back Jonathan Gray only saw 10 touches against Rice and with Heard likely seeing more designed running plays than Swoopes did, his stock is falling.
Key Injuries: None
Players to Watch: True freshman John Burt only caught one pass against Rice, but it was a 69 yard touchdown. He caught a 48 yard pass in the season opener and received plenty of hype this offseason. With Texas unlikely to rely heavily on the passing game, Burt is an extremely risky option, but if you’re looking to stack Heard with a receiver in a tournament, Burt is your best bet.
