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Each week we'll be providing a review of the Big 12 conference action, with an emphasis on what we can expect going forward.
OKLAHOMA AT BAYLOR
Game Recap: Baylor had difficulty establishing any kind of rhythm in this rain-soaked affair. The Oklahoma defense was largely able to take away the deep passing game – the Bears only completed three passes over 30 yards and none over 40 – and bottled up the Baylor run game, as Baylor only averaged 3.6 yards on 44 carries. The Oklahoma offense was very balanced and effective – churning out 511 yards of total offense with 241 coming on the ground and 270 via the air. While the game was reasonably close throughout, the game always had the feel to it that Oklahoma was the superior team on the field, and the 44-34 final score in favor of the Sooners should be viewed as a definitive victory that goes a long way toward bolstering their case for Playoff contention.
Key Players: Jarrett Stidham looked very much like a true freshman on Saturday night, only throwing for 257 yards and two touchdowns. The matchup against Oklahoma was undoubtedly the toughest he will see through the rest of the regular season, and the real concern is that Coach Art Briles stated after the game that Stidham was hurt in the first quarter. Stidham continued to play, but was visibly in pain. Briles said on Monday that Stidham ‘is walking around like (Briles)’ but that he expects him to start this weekend against Oklahoma State. The weakness of the Oklahoma State defense has been its secondary this year, and assuming good health, Stidham should definitely bounce back with a strong effort. Shock Linwood carried the ball 21 times for 103 yards, but it was Devin Chafin that scored three rushing touchdowns in this game. Chafin is a much bigger back than Linwood, and Baylor is now utilizing him as their primary red zone option. Oklahoma State has been stout against the run this year, but regardless Linwood’s value is trending down heading into this week’s contest. The Baylor receivers had an unproductive day as a unit. Corey Coleman had by far his worst day of the season, only catching three passes for 51 yards. We expect that this just a blip on the radar, and that he should return to dominant form this week. KD Cannon led the Bears in receiving with five catches for 77 yards. Though it was disappointing that he didn’t score, he was targeted eight times and has now seen at least seven targets in each of the last four games. We view him as the best value among the Baylor receivers and like his chances of hitting value this week, assuming he remains reasonably priced, like he has been in recent weeks.
Baker Mayfield had an average day by his lofty standards, throwing for 270 yards and touchdowns, while running for 76 yards and an additional score. We feel that Mayfield’s ceiling this upcoming week is largely linked to the status of his opposing quarterback, Trevone Boykin. If Boykin suits up, Mayfield will likely be primed for a big game as he looks to keep pace with his fellow Heisman Trophy candidate, however if Boykin sits out this game will likely be put out of reach early, and Oklahoma will be running the ball for much of the second half. Samaje Perine continued his recent streak of big games with a huge performance, running for 166 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries. He’s sure to see a substantial price hike this week, and going up against a TCU team that has been far worse defending the pass than the run, should be viewed as a better option in tournaments than cash games this week – unless TCU’s Trevone Boykin sits, in which case he’d likely project to see 25-30 carries in what would almost certainly be a blowout. Sterling Shepard turned back the clock to 2014, dominating the OU passing game by securing 14 of Baker Mayfield’s 24 completions, and turning them into 177 yards and two touchdowns. Much like Mayfield, Shepard’s chances for another huge game go up if Trevone Boykin plays, and if that is the case, expect Mayfield/Shepard to be a very popular stack this weekend.
Key Injuries: Baylor running back Johnny Jefferson did not suit up against Oklahoma, but Art Briles said that he ‘thinks (Jefferson) will play this week. If Jefferson does suit up, that would only further diminish Shock Linwood’s value. Though Jarrett Stidham was hurt against Oklahoma, all signs point to him playing this week.
Players to Watch: Jay Lee was the only Baylor wide receiver to catch a touchdown against Oklahoma. Still, he’s still seeing the lowest allotment of targets among the three top Baylor receivers, and will continue to be a GPP play, despite the price drop that he’s seen in recent weeks.
OKLAHOMA STATE at IOWA STATE
Game Recap: Leading up to Saturday, many experts billed this showdown as a potential trap game for Oklahoma State, coming off of a big win against TCU. Midway through the second quarter, this certainly appeared to be the case, with Iowa State jumping out to a 24-7 lead. Oklahoma State battled back from there, finally taking their first lead by the score of 35-31, with 3:06 to go in the fourth quarter. Iowa State was unable to move the chains in either of their final two possessions, allowing the Cowboys to escape Ames and remain undefeated.
Key Players: Mason Rudolph threw for 327 yards and a touchdown against Iowa State, while red zone specialist JW Walsh threw for 16 yards and a score of his own, and additionally 28 yards and two touchdowns. Clearly, Walsh cuts into Rudolph’s touchdown upside, but Rudolph has a very nice matchup against a Baylor defense that has given up some big games this year. Rudolph will likely need to connect on some long touchdowns in order to have a truly prolific day, but 300 passing yards is a reasonable floor for him this weekend. James Washington finally came back to Earth, only totaling 48 yards on four catches against Iowa State. He did see a season high 11 targets though, and this let down potentially serves as an opportunity to capitalize on the public losing faith in him. We still feel he’s best utilized in tournaments, as he’s primarily used as a deep threat in this offense, but Washington has serious bounce back appeal against Baylor.
Joel Lanning turned in his best performance to date, throwing for 162 yards and a touchdown, while also running for 130 more yards and two more scores. We knew Lanning had running ability, but this performance was still very impressive. He should see a substantial price hike this weekend which will likely render him a better tournament than cash game option against Kansas State. Mike Warren saw his lowest carry allotment since week two, only rushing 15 times for 73 yards. The fact that he didn’t score shouldn’t be surprising, but Lanning’s impact on the running game is what is really eating into his value. Still, this week he faces a Kansas State defense that just ceded 248 yards on the ground to DeAndre Washington, and Warren has a strong chance of crossing the 100 yard threshold for a sixth time this season.
Key Injuries: None.
Players to Watch: Allen Lazard has turned in three straight solid efforts since returning from a shoulder injury. He caught three passes for 74 yards against Oklahoma State, and we like him as a reasonably priced option this week against a Kansas State defense whose weakness most weeks this season has been its secondary.
KANSAS at TCU
Game Recap: Even with Josh Doctson coming into the game with the expectation of being limited, and a first quarter ankle injury to star quarterback Trevone Boykin, few actually thought that Kansas would be competing with TCU deep into the 4th quarter. Kanas ended up losing 23-17, and while this certainly was a valiant effort by the Jayhawks, the result surely speaks most to just how crucial TCU’s two superstars are to the team’s success.
Key Players: Ke’aun Kinner rushed 17 times for 80 yards against TCU. He’s now been productive two straight weeks and appears to be healthy after missing time in the middle of the season. Kinner should be on your radar as a cheaper option who should be guaranteed at least 15 touches going forward.
Before leaving with an ankle injury, Trevone Boykin had completed five of eight passes for 54 yards. He was replaced by Bram Kohlhausen, who was 13-19 for 112 yards and an interception before being pulled due to ineffectiveness. Foster Sawyer wasn’t much better, only completing one of seven pass attempts - though the one was a 42 yard touchdown. With the quarterback position in disarray, TCU leaned heavily on Aaron Green, who rushed a career high 30 times for 177 yards. Even if Boykin was ruled out for this Saturday, Green would be highly unlikely to duplicate those numbers against a tough Oklahoma run defense.
Key Injuries: Josh Doctson and Trevone Boykin are both listed as questionable for this week’s showdown against Oklahoma. Coach Gary Patterson said that he will have a better idea if the pair will be able to play on Thursday or Friday. Our expectation is that if they’re close to physically able, both will attempt to play through pain in this all-important game. Hopefully, we’ll have clarification one way or the other in advance of kickoff.
Players to Watch: Running back Shaun Nixon had his second straight productive pass catching game, hauling in seven balls for 78 yards and touchdown, and is emerging as a potential value play in PPR formats. KaVontae Turpin rushed once for seven yards, caught four passes for 21 yards, and returned a punt for a touchdown. Both Turpin and Nixon will be relied upon to play larger roles in the TCU offense if Josh Doctson doesn’t see the field this week.
KANSAS STATE at TEXAS TECH
Game Recap: Texas Tech jumped out to a 28-7 lead in the first quarter, but three Joe Hubener rushing touchdowns helped Kansas State close the gap to seven points, 35-28, early in the third quarter. Texas Tech reeled off three more score, building a 52-28 lead with only 11:30 remaining. The Wildcats continued to fight back, pulling again within one score, but ultimately fell short, losing 59-44.
Key Players: Joe Hubener was able to build off of a strong showing against Baylor, throwing 289 yards and two touchdowns, and running for nine yards and three additional scores. This week, Hubener has a soft matchup this week against Iowa State. His running ability gives him legitimate upside as a tournament option, even though his price is sure to rise. Charles Jones had a solid showing, running for 99 yards on 18 carries. Kansas State’s usage of Joe Hubener as a goal line back limits Jones’s upside, but he’s on the radar as a low-end option with Iowa State’s weak run defense on deck.
Patrick Mahomes predictably bounced back from a sub-par effort against West Virginia, throwing for 384 yards and three touchdowns. The real star of the show though was DeAndre Washington, who rushed for 248 yards and three touchdowns against a previously stout Kansas State run defense. Both Mahomes and Washington will be strong building blocks in a two game slate on Thanksgiving Night.
Key Injuries: Kody Cook left the game against Texas Tech in the first half with an injury and did not return, but Coach Bill Snyder said that he expects Cook to play this upcoming week. In his absence, Kyle Klein had a career day catching six passes for 131 yards. Considering the generally ineffective nature of the Kansas State passing game, neither should be considered cash game options this weekend.
Players to Watch: Devin Lauderdale scored for the first time in eight games and caught a season high 10 passes for 94 yards. Though Lauderdale was very much on our radar early on this season, he slipped into irrelevancy due to injuries and a loss of playing time. As recent as last week against West Virginia, Lauderdale wasn’t even starting, but after this big game, he’s very much looking like a receiver to target on Thanksgiving.
TEXAS at WEST VIRGINIA
Game Recap: Though neither of these teams runs ‘The Option’ you wouldn’t know it from the run/pass distribution in this game. West Virginia ran the ball on 81 percent of its offensive plays and Texas kept it on the ground 74 percent of the time, as the teams combined to only attempt 31 passes. West Virginia found that formula to work just fine, as the Mountaineers rolled to a 38-20 victory.
Key Players: Wendell Smallwood rushed for 165 yards on 24 carries. He didn’t reach the end zone, but should have no problem doing so this weekend against Kansas in a matchup that screams must-play. Rushel Shell only ran for 53 yards on 12 carries, but represents a solid back-end option against Kansas, as he should push for 15+ carries.
D’onta Foreman ran for 147 yards and a touchdown, giving him four 100 yard rushing performances in Texas’s last six games. He hurt his wrist late in the game, but now has two weeks to heal up before facing a porous Texas Tech run defense.
Key Injuries: Jonathan Gray suffered a foot injury against West Virginia, and while his status is unknown for the team’s next game against Texas Tech, the injury seems more serious than the one that his backfield mate, D’onta Foreman, suffered. We probably won’t hear much of an update until the Thanksgiving matchup with Texas Tech draws nearer, but the situation is worth monitoring considering how terrible the Red Raider defense is.
Players to Watch: West Virginia receiver Jovon Durante showed off his big play ability against Texas, catching a 53 yard touchdown pass. The true freshman has been plagued by drops this year, but it’s very evident that he is extremely talented. Considering West Virginia’s run-heavy approach, he likely won’t emerge as a cash game option this year, but is a cheap, high-upside receiver to target in tournaments most weeks, as he doesn’t need to see many targets in order to turn in a big game.
