Each week we'll be providing a review of the Big 12 conference action, with an emphasis on what we can expect going forward.
BAYLOR AT KANSAS STATE
Game Recap: Kansas State played about as good a game as they could have hoped for, controlling the ball for a whopping 38 minutes. The Wildcats consistently took the play clock down to the final five seconds, determined to sustain long drives and keep Baylor’s offense on the sidelines. Despite this well executed strategy, Baylor was still in control throughout the game, leading by double digits for most of the contest. Kansas State however had the ball with a chance to tie late in the fourth quarter, but ultimately fell short, losing by a score of 31-24.
Key Players: Jarrett Stidham looked incredibly poised in his first collegiate start, throwing for 419 yards and three touchdowns, while also running for a score. He doesn’t appear to have the wheels that Seth Russell possessed, but Stidham’s arm talent is unquestionable. Stidham showed the same propensity for force feeding Corey Coleman that his predecessor had, as the two hooked up 11 times for 216 yards and two scores. Obviously, there should be no concern that the quarterback change will negatively impact Coleman’s numbers going forward. KD Cannon had a big day on his birthday, catching four passes for 108 yards and a touchdown. It’s become apparent in recent weeks, mainly from a target count, that Cannon has surpassed Jay Lee as the clear number two option in the Baylor passing game behind Coleman.
The gameplan for Kansas State was clearly tailored to emphasize the running ability of quarterback Joe Hubener, who carried 29 times for 153 yards. Hubener consistently made correct reads on whether to run, pass, or hand the ball off, and on the whole was very impressive. He’s going to be a very intriguing option this week against Texas Tech’s horrific defense. While the 76 yards on 16 carries that Charles Jones gained doesn’t jump off the page, Jones looked very impressive and, like his quarterback, should be a popular target this weekend against one of the worst run defenses in the nation.
Key Injuries: None.
Players to Watch: Coming into the Baylor game, Deante Burton was seeing 29 percent of Kansas State’s targets – the highest percentage in the Big 12. The problem, though, is two-fold. First, Kansas State doesn’t throw very much, and second, Joe Hubener is not very accurate. The result is that Burton only has 22 catches for 278 yards and 3 scores on the year. Burton did have a nice touchdown grab against Baylor, and going up against Texas Tech this weekend, could be a cheap receiving option.
TEXAS TECH at WEST VIRGINIA
Game Recap: This game had an Over/Under of 80, but never even came close to living up to the high-flying expectations set by odds makers. Marred by dropped passes, poor throws, and bad decisions, both teams were forced to largely rely on their running games in order to move the football. West Virginia will certainly take the 31-26 victory, but it’s doubtful that either team will walk away from this one feeling overly exuberant.
Key Players: Patrick Mahomes’s performance was rather pedestrian on Saturday, only throwing for 196 yards and three touchdowns. While he certainly wasn’t at his best, Mahomes’s stat line was also a victim of both teams relying heavily on the running game. He’ll be best utilized as a GPP play next week, going up against a Kansas State team that plays at a very slow tempo, but has been awful against the pass this season. DeAndre Washington continued his steady 2015 campaign, rushing for 102 yards, and also leading the team with six catches for 64 yards and a touchdown. The matchup against Kansas State this weekend is a tough one though, and Washington won’t be a recommended play. Jakeem Grant was held in check, only catching five passes for eight yards against West Virginia, but he did still manage to score a touchdown. Texas Tech was mostly trying to get him the ball behind the line of scrimmage, and the Mountaineers were keying in on him all game. We expect him to be more creatively involved next time out, and he remains a great cash game option most weeks.
Though Skyler Howard’s receivers did him no favors, dropping passes regularly, the quarterback still looked awful, overthrowing open receivers and making poor decisions. With West Virginia continuing to move toward an increasingly run-heavy gameplan week by week, Howard can’t be considered a particularly appealing option in the upcoming matchup with Texas. Both Wendell Smallwood and Rushel Shell crossed the century mark on the ground – not exactly a surprising result considering that Texas Tech’s defense allows the 3rd most rush yards in the FBS. Smallwood is still receiving about two-thirds of the running back allocated carries in this backfield, and should be the WVU running back to target going forward, as the Mountaineers enter a soft final leg of their season. The West Virginia wide receiver situation has devolved into an absolute mess. Formerly trustworthy option, Shelton Gibson, was held without a catch on Saturday and no pass catcher amasses more than 80 yards through the air. Though all of the wide receiver options are cheaply priced most weeks, and there is plenty of talent on this roster, the unpredictability of the week to week target allotment makes all of them unplayable in cash games for the time being.
Key Injuries: None.
Players to Watch: Ka’Raun White led the way for the Mountaineers in the passing game with five catches for 80 yards, even though he’s still operating in a reserve role. Kevin White’s brother clearly has talent and should be on the GPP radar going forward, as he continues to see an expanded role in this offense.
TCU at OKLAHOMA STATE
Game Recap: The Oklahoma State Cowboys came into this game looking to prove that they belonged in the playoff conversation with Big 12 heavyweights TCU and Baylor. After trading scores through the first quarter and building a 14-9 lead, the Cowboys reeled off three straight touchdowns and built a 35-9 lead early in the third quarter. From there, it was just a matter of holding on, against a TCU team that lost its best receiver, Josh Doctson, right before halftime to a wrist injury. The Horned Frogs tried to mount a late comeback, but the 49-29 final score conveys precisely how thoroughly dominant a win this was for the Cowboys.
Key Players: Though Trevone Boykin managed a productive fantasy day, the star quarterback struggled in key situations, throwing four interceptions on the day. He’ll have no problem picking apart an awful Kansas defense this week, regardless of whether or not Josh Doctson is available, but there is some concern for what we should expect against Oklahoma and Baylor in the season’s final two weeks. When Boykin’s needed to make a big play in the past, he’s always looked Doctson’s way. If that option isn’t available, what will he do? Kolby Listenbee caught three passes for 56 yards and a score, but is mainly a situational deep-threat, and probably won’t see too much of an expanded role. The most likely scenario is that Boykin is asked to utilize his legs more in high leverage situations, which would be great for his fantasy prospects, at least until he gets banged up. Shaun Nixon led the team with 146 yards receiving, but he’s more of a creatively used backup running back than anything else, and we’re considering this performance a one-off fluke. The running game has been weak recently, and though Aaron Green amassed 97 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries, he had a long gain of only 10 yards. Expect, at least in the short term against the woeful Kansas defense, TCU to lean heavily on Green and he should have a big game this week.
Mason Rudolph turned in what was undoubtedly the best performance of his young career, throwing for 352 yards and five touchdowns. He was able to account for so many scores largely because four of those touchdown passes were longer than 47 yards. If Oklahoma State had embarked on more methodical drives that resulted in red zone opportunities JW Walsh likely would have cut into Rudolph’s production. We expect that Rudolph’s price will see a big bump this week, and he’ll be a player to consider for tournaments this week against a soft Iowa State defense. James Washington is quickly becoming one of the premier deep threats in college football. A week after torching Texas Tech for 200 yards on only four catches, Washington caught five passes for 184 yards and three scores against TCU. He’ll undoubtedly have weeks in which he fails to break free for long touchdowns, which are the main source of his value, but there are few better home run threats in the nation right now. A Rudolph-Washington stack is looking like one of the higher upside plays for tournaments going forward.
Key Injuries: Josh Doctson left with a wrist injury late in the second quarter. He went to the locker room and was x-rayed though results have not been disclosed at this time. Considering the mood on the sideline and general buzz considering the situation, things aren’t looking particularly good. It wouldn’t be shocking if he missed significant time and TCU really has no one who can step into his role as a go-to receiver. Explosive KaVontae Turpin will continue to see his role grow, but at 5’7” he doesn’t offer a similar skillset as the 6’2” Doctson.
Players to Watch: KaVontae Turpin continues to see an expanded role, and with Doctson likely out for the foreseeable future, that role will continue to grow. Turpin received four carries in this game, including one at the five yard line which he took down to the one, but couldn’t quite punch in. He also caught seven passes for 107 yards, with the majority of that coming after Doctson left the game. He’s got to be considered TCU’s most reliable, and explosive, receiving option as long as Doctson is off the field.
IOWA STATE at OKLAHOMA
Game Recap: Oklahoma made sure that this was never going to be a close game, jumping out to a 21-3 lead just 12 minutes into the first quarter. From there, the Sooners steadily built the gap between them and the Cyclones to a score of 52-9 before Iowa State finally reached pay dirt for the first time with five minutes to go in the fourth quarter. The 52-16 outcome has been the standard procedure for Oklahoma since their embarrassing loss to Texas, as they’ve won each of their last four contests by at least 36 points.
Key Players: Oklahoma was able to bottle up the Iowa State running game, which spelled trouble for the Cyclones, who were able to upset Texas last week mostly due to their ability grind out yards on the ground. Mike Warren only managed 43 yards on 18 carries, and shouldn’t be counted on this week against Oklahoma State’s tough run defense. Allen Lazard showed that his shoulder injury is behind him catching 8 passes for 101 yards. The Cyclones will need to rely on him heavily in the season’s final stretch and he’ll likely be a low-end cash game option, depending on his price, as he sees a solid allotment of targets, even in a system that has grown increasingly reliant on the running game.
Baker Mayfield put forth another huge performance, throwing for 342 yards and three touchdowns, while running for 27 yards and another score. In what will very likely be a high scoring shootout, Mayfield will be a popular target this weekend against Baylor. Samaje Perine had a stellar outing, running for 95 yards and a score on only 13 carries. His backfield mate, Joe Mixon, chipped in with 88 yards and a touchdown on only eight carries. Baylor has given up big rushing performances to both Kansas State and Iowa State in back to back games, but we feel that Perine and Mixon are both best utilized as tournament options. Neither will be cheaply priced and their individual workloads are unreliable from week to week. Sterling Shepard looked like he was headed for a disappointing game against Iowa State until he caught a 74 yard bomb near the end of the third quarter. Oklahoma’s most dangerous receiver will be a great tournament target this week.
Key Injuries: None.
Players to Watch: Durron Neal blew up for 10 catches and 75 yards this week against Iowa State. He’s been a consistently average receiver for Oklahoma this season, catching at least two passes in every game, but not exceeding 87 receiving yards in any contest. Though he functions as a security blanket for Baker Mayfield, we don’t see him as an ideal target in next week’s high flying affair against Baylor.
KANSAS at TEXAS
Game Recap: Charlie Strong was able to quell the talks of his potential down the line dismissal with a decisive 59-20 victory over Kansas. The Jayhawks allowed four touchdowns of 40 yards or longer and, unfortunately for them, this was just another step closer to what is shaping up to be a winless campaign.
Key Players: Ke’aun Kinner had his first productive week since week three, totaling 107 offensive yards against Texas. He had been dealing with a hamstring injury in recent weeks and could be a cheap punt option this week against TCU assuming his price remains suppressed for this upcoming week.
Jerrod Heard performed well enough for Texas to win against lowly Kansas and could have had a bigger day if not for Tyrone Swoopes vulturing his touchdowns, taking over the quarterback position when Texas gets close to the goal line. This has been an ongoing theme in recent weeks, and is the main reason that Heard is unplayable for the time being. D’Onta Foreman ripped off 157 yards and two touchdowns on only 12 carries, including a 93 yard score. His carry allotment has been inconsistent from week to week, and with Swoopes taking so many touches close to the goal line, we’re not recommending Foreman this weekend against West Virginia.
Key Injuries: None.
Players to Watch: Kansas’s best receiver Tre Parmalee was suspended for the Texas game for ‘a violation of team rules.’ The expectation is that he’ll be back next week, and while his production has been sporadic, Parmalee could make for a close-to-minimum-priced wide receiver option against a TCU secondary that has been abused on multiple occasions this season.