In this feature we are going to look at the GPP contests and offer the top stacks, fades, and ownership projections for each upcoming week.
Fantasy Aces has shown that they know how to put on live events, and this year they are stepping their game up with a $500,000 FAFC that is going to be held in Newport Beach, California. They have two different qualifiers this week one at the $109 price point with a maximum of 250 entries and the other at the $535 price point with a maximum of 80 entries which pays two tickets.
If the Live Events aren’t for you, they’re also offering a $40,000 guaranteed tournament at the $22 price point with maximum entrants of 2,000. They also have a $10,000 guaranteed tournament at the $11 price point with a maximum of 1,000 entries. If you haven’t tried their salary pro format, this is a format that allows you to go over or stay under the cap starting with positive points instead of 0 if you stay under and starting with negative points if you go over. They have a $5,000 Salary Pro Sluggo tournament with an entry fee of $5.50
TOP STACKS
Atlanta Falcons – QB Matt Ryan ($6,700) and WR Julio Jones ($6,450)
The Falcons are one of the highest projected teams this week as they’re projected to score 28 points at home against a Buccaneers team that is 24th in total yards allowed this season. This presents a great opportunity to start the Falcons duo of Ryan and Jones. While Jones is expensive it is offset a little bit by Ryan being underpriced by about $300. Julio is getting healthier by the day and showed it last week when he had 17 targets, while the production did not translate into a huge fantasy game he still ended up with nine receptions for 92 yards and a touchdown. He will need more than that this week, but with the target number finally back to the levels that we saw earlier in the season he has one of the highest upsides on this slate.
San Diego Chargers – QB Phillip Rivers($7,000) and WR Keenan Allen ($5,700)
Phillip Rivers so far this season has been one of the top fantasy quarterbacks. In five of his first seven games this season he has thrown for 300+ yards and two or more touchdowns. With Fantasy Aces having a point for every 20 yards passing yards can be absolutely critical in gaining points on your competition. Fortunately for Rivers, he is facing a Baltimore Ravens defense that allowed 340+ yards to Colin Kaepernick, Josh McCown, Andy Dalton, and Derek Carr. Phillip Rivers is significantly better than all four of those quarterbacks, and with Antonio Gates still limited, Keenan Allen should step up in a big way this week.
VALUE STACKS
Chicago Bears – QB Jay Cutler ($5,800) and WR Alshon Jeffery ($5,100)
This is one of our favorite value stacks of the day, as the Bears duo did not get priced up after Alshon Jeffery went for eight receptions 147 yards and a touchdown last week. This is a tremendous value at $5,100 and one that will be popular due to the value. While the Vikings secondary has been good this season on paper, in actuality the stats are being skewed by facing Alex Smith, Peyton Manning and Colin Kaepernick who all had poor games against them. This should be a week where Cutler and Jeffery continue to establish the connection that they have seen over the course of the few years in Chicago that they have been together. With Minnesota boasting a better than average run defense only allowing 106 yards per game, the Bears will be forced to throw the ball more than normal and these two should have a big day.
High Risk Stacks
Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Ben Roethlisberger ($6,850) and WR Antonio Brown ($6,100)
Prior to Ben’s injury, it would be crazy to put this in the high risk column of our article, as this is typically in the top stacks section. However, with a quarterback returning from injury it is always high risk, as you truly never know how the quarterback is going to perform after several weeks away from the game. The Bengals have one of the worst pass defenses in the league allowing 261 yards per game so this is an extremely favorable matchup for Ben and Brown to establish their connection as one of the top quarterback wide receiver duo in the NFL.
FADES
Based on price and matchups alone you are going to have some players that are highly owned in Week 5.
Quarterback – Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals ($6,750)
Andy Dalton has been great so far this year as he has thrown for over 300 yards in three of his last four games. The matchup is great as Pittsburgh is allowing 276 yards passing per game which is one of the worst in the league. The issue for Dalton this week is that he is on the road this week. Over the past few seasons he has fared much worse on the road than at home, and has never thrown for over 300 yards in the windy Pittsburgh stadium. This is a situation where he is priced accurately, but is getting a lot of hype this week as a good play which will drive his ownership percentage up. Therefore we are recommending fading Dalton in your GPP’s this week.
Running Back – Justin Forsett Baltimore Ravens ($5,300)
Justin Forsett is getting a lot of love this week as the matchup is ideal for him going up against the Chargers who have one of the worst defenses in the league. He is going to be heavily owned based on his price, as people are going to look at the matchup and the price. The issue for Forsett is that he only has two touchdowns this season, as since he is a smaller running back at 5’8’’ 195 pounds he is not a great goal line running back. Also as we all saw last week, Buck Allen is starting to get more and more carries which limits Forsett’s upside. This is a situation where for cash games Forsett is going to provide a nice start due to being safe, but he does not present the upside that we typically look for in a running back.
Wide Receiver – Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,800)
Most weeks Martavis Bryant is one of the best GPP plays of the week, as his boom/bust nature is exactly what you’re looking for when you are looking to win a big contest. The issue this week is that we don’t know how healthy Ben Roethlisberger truly is as he comes off an MCL injury that may limit his ability to throw the deep ball to Martavis. Martavis is going to be heavily owned this week due to his price as well as having scored three touchdowns in his two games back this season, but we are recommending to avoid him this week as there is some risk and it is a nice way to separate yourself from the competition.
Tight End – Ladarius Green, San Diego Chargers ($4,100)
It is looking like Antonio Gates may not play again this week, which would drive Ladarius Green’s ownership percentages even higher than last week as the game is at 1PMEST so we should know prior to lock whether or not Gates is going to play. The issue for Green is that even though the Baltimore Ravens have been one of the worst teams against the pass this season, they have been one of the best teams against the tight ends. The Ravens have only 3.9 fantasy points in fantasy points per week to tight ends which is 3rd lowest in the league. This is not a situation that you want to start a tight end that is going to be heavily owned, on the road, and in a poor matchup. There are better options this week.
Defense and Special Teams – Carolina Panthers ($2,950)
The Colts have given the ball away the second most in the NFL this season, and are projected to be one of the lowest scoring teams this week with a projected total of 20 points. Carolina is 7th in forced turnovers, so on paper this is a perfect matchup for the Panthers, but Andrew Luck and the Colts are starting to turn their season around offensively. Even though they are not yet winning games, they have only turned the ball over three times over the last two games. The Panthers will be one of the more popular defenses on the slate, and should be considered in cash games, but for GPP’s due to how high their ownership will be it is best to target a team with a worse quarterback than Andrew Luck.
Highest Ownership
Quarterback
Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons ($6,700)
Phillip Rivers, San Diego Chargers ($7,000)
Brian Hoyer Arizona Cardinals ($5,700)
Running Back
Justin Forsett Baltimore Ravens ($5,300)
Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,000)
Darren McFadden Dallas Cowboys($4,500)
Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs Minnesota Vikings ($4,550)
Larry Fitzgerald Arizona Cardinals ($5,400)
Mike Evans Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,100)
Tight End
Ladarius Green, San Diego Chargers ($4,100)
Gary BarnidgeCleveland Browns ($5,000)
Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers ($4,950)
Defense and Special Team
New York Jets ($3000)
Seattle Seahawks ($3,300)
St. Louis Rams ($2,650)
Low Ownership/Contrarian Plays
Quarterback
Drew Brees New Orleans Saints ($7,000)
Carson Palmer Arizona Cardinals ($6,900)
Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers ($7,150)
Running Back
Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings ($6,250)
Mark Ingram, San Francisco 49ers ($5,100)
Duke Johnson Jr, Cleveland Browns ($4,200)
Wide Receiver
Brandon Marshall New York Jets ($5,400)
T.Y. Hilton Indianapolis Colts ($5,100)
Keenan Allen San Diego Chargers ($5,700)
Tight End
Delanie Walker Tennessee Titans ($4,400)
Jimmy Graham Seattle Seahawks ($4,850)
Martellus Bennett Chicago Bears ($4,650)
Defense and Special Teams
Houston Texans ($2,700)
Green Bay Packers($2,850)
Minnesota Vikings ($2,800)
