In this feature we are going to look at the GPP contests and offer the top stacks, fades, and ownership projections for each upcoming week.
Fantasy Aces has shown that they know how to put on live events, and this year they are stepping their game up with a $500,000 FAFC that is at the Palms in Las Vegas. They have two different qualifiers this week one at the $109 price point with a maximum of 250 entries and the other at the $535 price point with a maximum of 80 entries which pays two tickets.
If the Live Events aren’t for you, they’re also offering a $50,000 guaranteed tournament at the $22 price point with maximum entrants of 2,500. They also have a $10,000 guaranteed tournament at the $11 price point with a maximum of 1,000 entries. If you haven’t tried their salary pro format, this is a format that allows you to go over or stay under the cap starting with positive points instead of 0 if you stay under and starting with negative points if you go over. They have a $5,000 Salary Pro Sluggo tournament with an entry fee of $5.50
TOP STACK
New England Patriots – QB Tom Brady($7,100) and TE Rob Gronkowski ($6,400)
This is our favorite stack of the week, but is likely to be the most popular. Tom Brady is on a mission to set every possible NFL record as vengeance for the Deflategate situation prior to this season. The Patriots are projected to score the most of any team this week, and should feature a lot of Brady and Gronkowski. Dallas has a below average secondary so far this season allowing 256 yards per game so far this season, which should provide for a great opportunity for Brady. While Gronkowski was unable to score a touchdown last week, he scored in 11 out of 16 games last season, so he should rebound nicely in this game.
VALUE STACKS
Green Bay Packers – QB Aaron Rodgers($7,450) and WR Randall Cobb ($5,700)
Green Bay is not in as good of a matchup as New England, but Rodgers and Cobb should rebound nicely after failing to meet value last week. Thankfully, this will be one of the few times where Rodgers and Cobb are under-owned due to other matchups that are out there that are either cheaper or they are a better matchup. The Rams are coming off a game last week where they allowed 352 yards passing to Carson Palmer, which while their run defense is one of the best in football, they can be beat in the secondary. Rodgers has been one of the best quarterbacks of all time at home has not thrown an interception in three years at Lambeau. While the floor is probably lower than the Brady and Cobb stack, we don’t really care about the floor in a GPP as it is all about the ceiling and the ability to hit that ceiling which the Green Bay ceiling is tremendous.
Arizona Cardinals – QB Carson Palmer ($6,700) and WR Larry Fitzgerald ($5,200)
Fantasy Aces once again has yet to price Larry Fitzgerald to where he should be based off of the great start that he is currently on. Fitzgerald has been one of the best wide receivers in the NFL so far this season averaging 108 yards receiving through four games. The Lions have a weak secondary, as the two traditional quarterbacks that they have faced have averaged 364 yards passing and two touchdowns. In these games, they have also struggled with the number one receiver allowing an average of 12 receptions for 129 yards receiving.
Palmer and Fitzgerald make for a great play this week, while they’re on the road which is not always an ideal situation they are a favorite in this game. Detroit has a strong run defense which should force the Cardinals to throw the ball more than normal.
Kansas City Chiefs – Alex Smith ($5,950) and Jeremy Maclin ($5,000)
Alex Smith finally has a wide receiver that he is consistently throwing to. Over the last two games, Jeremy Maclin has 24 targets, for 289 yards and a touchdown. At $5,000 this puts Maclin as one of the best value plays of the day, and should be a strong GPP play.
While Alex Smith does not throw as many touchdowns as we would like the matchup could not be any better. The Bears are one of the worst teams against the pass allowing 10 touchdowns in their first four games. Alex Smith has also run the ball more of late averaging 29 yards rushing over the last two games. This presents an extra opportunity to gain some points to differentiate your lineup from the pack. While this stack may not have the upside that some of the more expensive stacks have, since it will only cost you $10,950, it will allow you to get some of the top options at other positions. There is some risk in this game as if the Chiefs get up to an early lead we could see a heavy dose of Jamaal Charles.
HIGH RISK STACK
Denver Broncos – QB Peyton Manning ($7,350) and WR- Demaryius Thomas ($6,200)
By now, we have all realized that Peyton Manning is starting to regress, which is why he is in the high risk stack instead of the top stack section. Fortunately most people are pessimistic about Peyton, and therefore his ownership level will be one of the lowest owned quarterbacks on the slate. Fortunately for Manning, Oakland has one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL allowing 310 yards per game through the air. This is the best matchup that Peyton will have on the schedule, and he should be able to exploit the matchup.
Early in this season, it appeared that Emmanuel Sanders was going to compete with Demaryius as the top option in Denver however over the last two weeks Demaryius has shown that he is the clear cut number one guy in Denver. He has had 11+ targets in each of the four weeks, and a minimum of seven receptions. This should be a prime matchup for Demaryius, and while he only has one touchdown so far this season, Demaryius is the type of player who has a history of multiple touchdown games, and could be poised for another one in this prime matchup.
FADES
Based on price and matchups alone you are going to have some players that are highly owned in Week 5.
Quarterback – Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons ($6,950)
Matt Ryan, is a popular play this week largely because of how poor the Washington defense has been over the past few seasons. So far however, the Redskins have allowed the fourth least passing yards in the NFL. While the sample size is small, the additions to the secondary in the offseason so far are paying off for the Redskins. The other issue for Matt Ryan is that Julio Jones is likely going to be less than 100% for this game. He is questionable to play, and while we believe that he will play, how effective is he going to be with a toe and a hamstring injury. Finally, with the emergence of Devontae Freeman in the red zone this limits Ryan’s upside, and therefore should be faded in GPP’s. While the Falcons have an expected team total of 28 points, we expect Freeman to play a major role in the scoring for the Falcons.
Running Back – Todd Gurley, St. Louis Rams ($4,800)
Todd Gurley in the second half of last week’s game showed how great of a player he may end up being. He is going to be over-owned as people will be looking to get out in front of one of his breakout games that are bound to happen. Unfortunately, we don’t believe you should start him this week, as over the last three weeks, the Packers have held Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, and Carlos Hyde all under 50 yards rushing. Gurley is going to be a great player, but he is going to be over-owned in GPP’s which generally means you should wait until he is in a better spot to start him. This game could very quickly turn into a blowout as the spread is Green Bay -10, so the Rams could easily decide to abandon the run early on in the game.
Wide Receiver – Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders ($5,150)
Amari Cooper is one of the daily fantasy stars so far this season based on value. He continues to be underpriced on Fantasy Aces, but like last week, we are recommending that you do not play him this week in GPP’s. The reason is that he is going to continue to be over-owned due to his breakout success this season. So far, the Denver Broncos have the best pass defenses in the NFL. Combining the tough matchup with the over-ownership has us as a fade this week in your GPP contests.
Tight End – Owen Daniels ($4,000)
So far this season Oakland has given up the most fantasy points to tight ends by a large margin. Combining this with the low price of Daniels, he is going to be one of the higher owned tight ends on this slate. The thing that a lot of people are discounting is the athleticism of the tight ends that Oakland has faced so far this season. The 32 year old Owen Daniels is no longer the same player that he used to be as he is averaging just 5.1 yards per reception so far this season, and has been under his career average over the last four seasons. Owen Daniels should be avoided as he is no longer athletic as he once was and he will be over-owned due to the matchup.
Defense and Special Teams – Baltimore Ravens ($2,800)
This one is all about perception. Baltimore has a perception based on their history that they are a great fantasy defense, and the Browns have a perception that they’re one of the teams with the worst offenses in football. This is going to drive up the ownership of the Ravens this week, which will make them one of the top punt plays of the year. The challenge is that neither of these perceptions are reality. So far this season, the Ravens have allowed 26 points per game, which is tied for 23rd in the NFL. Meanwhile in the two games that Josh McCown has played the full game, the Browns have scored 25 points per game, which would be tied for 10th in the NFL. There are much better options on this slate.
HIGHEST Projected OWNERSHIP
Quarterback
Carson Palmer Arizona Cardinals ($6,700)
Alex Smith Kansas City Chiefs ($5,950)
Tom Brady, New England Patriots ($7,450)
Running Back
Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons ($5,000)
Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints ($4,850)
Anthony Dixon, Buffalo Bills ($3,500)
Wide Receiver
Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals ($5,200)
James Jones, Green Bay Packers ($4,850)
Keenan Allen San Diego Chargers ($5,300)
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski New England Patriots ($5,950)
Charles Clay Buffalo Bills ($4,550)
Owen Daniels Denver Broncos ($4,000)
Defense and Special Teams
Denver Broncos ($3,000)
Baltimore Ravens ($2,800)
Jacksonville Jaguars ($2,500)
LOW OWNERSHIP/CONTRARIAN PLAYS
Quarterback
Tyrod Taylor Buffalo Bills ($6,300)
Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,700)
Phillip Rivers San Diego Chargers ($6,800)
Running Back
T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,500)
Dion Lewis, New England Patriots ($4,700)
Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs ($6,450)
Wide Receiver
Odell Beckham Jr. New York Giants ($6,350)
Allen Robinson Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,600)
Demaryius Thomas Denver Broncos ($6,200)
Tight End
Gary Barnidge, Cleveland Browns ($4,100)
Martellus Bennett Chicago Bears ($4,750)
Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers ($4,350)
Defense and Special Team
Atlanta Falcons($2,750)
New York Giants ($2,800)
Arizona Cardinals ($2,950)
