In this feature we are going to look at the GPP contests and offer the top stacks, fades, and ownership projections for each upcoming week.
Fantasy Aces has shown that they know how to put on live events, and this year they are stepping their game up with a $500,000 FAFC that is at the Palms in Las Vegas. They have two different qualifiers this week one at the $109 price point with a maximum of 500 entries which pays two tickets and the other at the $535 price point with a maximum of 40 entries. The 500 person $109 tournament is unlikely to fill and should present a nice overlay option.
If the Live Events aren’t for you, they’re also offering a $50,000 guaranteed tournament at the $22 price point with maximum entrants of 2,500. They also have a $10,000 guaranteed tournament at the $11 price point with a maximum of 1,000 entries. If you haven’t tried their salary pro format, this is a format that allows you to go over or stay under the cap starting with positive points instead of 0 if you stay under and starting with negative points if you go over. They have a $10,000 Salary Pro Sluggo tournament with an entry fee of $5.50
TOP STACKS
Atlanta Falcons – QB Matt Ryan($7,100) and WR Julio Jones ($6,400)
This is our favorite stack of the week, but it is going to cost you a significant amount of salary which could hinder your ability to create the rest of your lineup. Julio Jones has been on a record setting pace and has largely been unstoppable this season. Houston is a team that will typically allow the #1 Wide Receiver to get his catches but try to shut you down by eliminating the secondary options with Jonathan Joseph as there is not a corner that is able to cover Julio one on one in the NFL. The Falcons are projected to be one of the highest scoring teams this week with Vegas expecting them to score 27 points, and Ryan to Jones should be called out a lot in this one.
Green Bay Packers -- QB Aaron Rodgers($7,400) and WR Randall Cobb ($5,650)
We all saw the connection that Rodgers and Cobb had on Monday night and this is a situation where the pricing comes out prior to fully having adjusted for the Monday night game. Randall Cobb was outstanding in this game having seven receptions for 91 yards and three touchdowns. This was a game where if they needed more they could have had it as they pulled off the gas a little bit earlier than the scoreboard looks. With Jordy Nelson out, Randall Cobb becomes the centerpiece of this offense and should be in consideration every week, and at this price becomes one of the top plays of the day. The 49er defense so far has not been able to stop number one wide receivers allowing Antonio Brown to have nine catches for 195 yards and a touchdown, and just last week allowed Larry Fitzgerald to have nine catches for 134 yards and two touchdowns. This stack is our favorite on the day as the matchup is perfect as well as the price not having adjusted as much as it should have for Randall Cobb.
Oakland Raiders – QB Derek Carr ($6,400) and WR Amari Cooper ($5,100)
Derek Carr and Amari Cooper have found an immediate connection so far this season as the rookie torched the Cleveland Browns and Joe Haden and had a game to be remembered with eight catches 134 yards. Cooper has 31 targets in three games, which puts him in the top 15 in the NFL so far this season. This week’s matchup is against one of the worst defenses in football in the Chicago Bears. The Bears shipped off -two of their better known defensive players and look as if they have written off this season already. The salary of these two players is very affordable which will allow flexibility as you fill out the rest of your roster.
VALUE STACKS
Arizona Cardinals – QB Carson Palmer ($6,600) and WR Larry Fitzgerald ($5,000)
Fantasy Aces has yet to price Larry Fitzgerald to where he should be based off of the great start that he is currently on. Fitzgerald has been one of the best wide receivers in the NFL so far this season averaging 111 yards receiving through three games. The matchup isn’t horrible, but it also isn’t one of our top matchups thus making it a little bit more difficult for Palmer/Fitzgerald, but the value of this stack is tremendous and allows you to have more flexibility when filling out the rest of your roster.
San Diego Chargers – Phillip Rivers – ($6,650) and Keenan Allen ($5,000)
So far this season Keenan Allen has been a boom/bust type player which is great for GPP’s for the weeks that he has a huge game, but can also ruin a lineup if you own him in a week where he underperforms. Last week he was back to his huge game having 18 targets with 12 receptions for 133 yards and two touchdowns. If you could get this type of production out of a $5,000 player you would take that in a heartbeat.
The challenge this week is he is going up against Joe Haden and the Cleveland Browns team which historically has had a statistically great pass defense. However, they are missing three key players including their #2 corner Justin Gilbert for this game, and Joe Haden is banged up although he is probable. The Browns allowed eight receptions for 134 yards to a rookie #1 wide receiver in Amari Cooper last week, and even though the matchup is tough it is there for Keenan Allen to take advantage of it.
HIGH RISK STACK
Jacksonville Jaguars – QB Blake Bortles ($5,700) and WR- Allen Robinson ($4,700)
Allen Robinson was one of the more highly owned players last week, and due to him underperforming we typically see where the ownership percentage does the exact opposite the next week as those who had him are unlikely to start him again, and those that didn’t have him don’t believe in him and are unlikely to start him. This creates a nice situation for a GPP where a wide receiver with tremendous upside is going to be under-owned. The Colts secondary has largely been untested this season as they have faced Buffalo, New York Jets, and the Tennessee Titans. On average the Colts have allowed 268 yards passing in those three games including allowing 367 to Marcus Mariota last week.
While Blake Bortles is not a great quarterback, one of the great things about him is that he has to continue to throw the football as the team is often down early and they abandon the running game. This is great for fantasy owners, as you are just banking on garbage time production like we saw last week against the Patriots. This is a stack that is not a great one, but is one that is high risk and should be under-owned giving you the ability to differentiate yourself from the rest of the field.
FADES
Based on price and matchups alone you are going to have some players that are highly owned in Week 4.
Quarterback – Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks ($6,550)
A lot of people still don’t know that on FantasyAces are still unfamiliar or disregard that you get 1 point for every 20 yards passing instead of the standard 25. This can make a significant difference and essentially can eliminate the 40-50 yards per game that Russell Wilson will have on the ground. This game could turn into a blowout situation as the Seahawks are 10.5 point favorites this week at home against the Lions. If it turns into this blowout situation we are all expecting, it means that Wilson’s running upside is limited as there is no point in risking injury if you and your team are up by two touchdowns in a week. He will be highly owned, as the price point, the name recognition, and the matchup are all in his favor this week.
Running Back – Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers ($5,450)
Eddie Lacy still looks like a running back that isn’t completely healthy as we saw last week he lacks that burst that we have come accustomed to. He looks like he is out of shape at times as he is consistently breathing heavy which causes James Starks to come on the field to give him a break. This is a 49ers team that shut down Adrian Peterson in week one, and although Lacy is going to be ranked high this week due to the offensive firepower that Green Bay has, we recommend that he will be over-owned and that there are better options to spend your money on.
Wide Receiver – Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders ($4,650)
Recency Bias is something you really want to avoid in GPP’s. At his price, Larry Fitzgerald is going to be one of the highest owned wide receivers on FantasyAces this week, and that right there is something that you are going to want to avoid. This week’s matchup is absolutely fantastic against the Bears, but remember that Cooper is still a rookie wide receiver on the road, so there is significant risk in him performing well. It is always tough to recommend going against a player like Cooper, and in cash games he is one of our top plays, but for GPP’s he simply is too valuable to not use.
Tight End – Martellus Bennett ($4,300)
Let’s slow down and really try to understand what we have been hearing this week about the Raiders and the inability to stop the tight end position. Gary Barnidge was the most targeted player in Josh McCown’s week one start against the Jets until he went down with an injury. He appears to be a consistent option for McCown week in and week out and we expect him to continue to have fantasy relevance throughout the rest of the season. Bennett still has Jimmy Clausen throwing to him who is by far the worst quarterback in the NFL. We are not willing to start any player that is having the ball thrown to him by a quarterback who wouldn’t make the roster of a lot of teams. Martellus will be over-owned this weekend and for good reason as his price is great, and the matchup is still a good one even though it is not as great as some of the things that we are hearing.
Let’s be clear this one is contingent upon Jimmy Clausen starting, if Jay Cutler starts we recommend playing Bennett as he loves his tight end.
Defense and Special Teams – Green Bay Packers ($2,950)
The Green Bay Packers defense this year has not been as good as it has been in the past allowing 68 points over the first three games this season. There will be a lot of people interested in Green Bay largely due to Colin Kaepernick’s game last week against Arizona in which was a career low for Kaepernick. The 49ers return home and Kaepernick has heard it all week the importance of taking care of the football. There are better defenses in this slate than to start the Packers no matter how turnover prone Kaepernick might be.
HIGHEST OWNERSHIP
Quarterback
Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders ($6,400)
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers ($7,400)
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons ($7,100)
Running Back
Karlos Williams, Buffalo Bills ($4,450)
Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders ($5,000)
Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons ($4,800)
Wide Receiver
Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals ($5,000)
Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers ($5,650)
Amari Cooper Oakland Raiders ($5,100)
Tight End
Martellus Bennett Chicago Bears ($4,350)
Greg Olsen Carolina Panthers ($5,000)
Travis Kelce Kansas City Chiefs ($5,100)
Defense and Special Teams
Seattle Seahawks ($3,000)
Denver Broncos (2,850)
Green Bay Packers ($2,950)
LOW OWNERSHIP/CONTRARIAN PLAYS
Quarterback
Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals ($6,600)
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers ($6,550)
Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills ($6,450)
Running Back
Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs ($6,250)
Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings ($6,200)
T.J Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,450)
Wide Receiver
Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,700)
Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints ($4,650)
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,800)
Tight End
Gary Barnidge, Cleveland Browns ($3,900)
Tyler Eifert Cincinnati Bengals ($4,550)
Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys ($4,700)
Defense and Special Team
New York Jets ($2,850)
Carolina Panthers ($3,000)
San Diego Chargers ($2,650)