In this feature we are going to look at the GPP contests and offer the top stacks, fades, and ownership projections for each upcoming week.
Fantasy Aces has shown that they know how to put on live events, and this year they are stepping their game up with a $500,000 FAFC that is at the Palms in Las Vegas. They have two different qualifiers this week one at the $109 price point with a maximum of 500 entries which pays two tickets and the other at the $535 price point with a maximum of 40 entries. The 500 person $109 tournament is unlikely to fill and should present a nice overlay option.
If the Live Events aren’t for you, they’re also offering a $50,000 guaranteed tournament at the $22 price point with maximum entrants of 2,500. They also have a $10,000 guaranteed tournament at the $11 price point with a maximum of 1,000 entries. If you haven’t tried their salary pro format, this is a format that allows you to go over or stay under the cap starting with positive points instead of 0 if you stay under and starting with negative points if you go over. They have a $10,000 Salary Pro Sluggo tournament with an entry fee of $5.50
TOP STACKS
New England Patriots – QB Tom Brady ($6,900) and TE Rob Gronkowski ($5,900)
This is our favorite stack of the week, but is likely going to be the most heavily owned stack. Ryan Tannehill threw for 359 yards and 2 touchdowns last week. Brady seems to be on a mission this year to set every record in the NFL, and this is a matchup that he should be able to exploit this week. Rob Gronkowski is a differentiator at the tight end position, as there is no other tight end that has the upside that Gronkowski has. Gronkowski is our favorite play at tight end, and one of our top plays overall as this Patriots team should be able to name their score against the Jaguars.
If you’re really looking to stack a team, including Julian Edelman would not be a bad play, as Brady should be able to do just about whatever he wants against this defense.
Pittsburgh Steelers -- QB Ben Roethlisberger ($7,200) and WR Antonio Brown ($6,300)
This stack is going to be in this article a lot this year, as it is the definition of matchup proof and safe. Yes it is incredibly expensive, but it is going to be the chalk stack on the year, and you will see this stack in almost every article this season. With Le’veon Bell coming back, it may hurt Antonio Brown long-term slightly, but it Pittsburgh still ran the ball 25 times last week, so the impact should be minimal. St. Louis has a great defense, so the matchup isn’t ideal, but this combination has proven time and time again that it is matchup proof and should strongly be considered.
Green Bay Packers – QB Aaron Rodgers ($6,600) and WR Randall Cobb ($4,850)
The Kansas City Chiefs have one of the most inexperienced secondaries in the NFL which is great for Aaron Rodgers and company. While Cobb is still dealing with the shoulder injury, he had a great game last week against the Seattle with 8 receptions for 116 yards. Both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders had great games against this secondary last week, and with Cobb playing an even more important role now that he is only primary guy in Green Bay, he becomes a great stack with Rodgers this week as someone who could see the ball a lot.
VALUE STACKS
Arizona Cardinals – QB Carson Palmer ($6,500) and WR Larry Fitzgerald ($4,850)
This is going to be one of the more popular stacks of the day due to Fitzgerald’s monster game against the Bears last week. Also, the 49ers allowed 369 yards passing last week to the Steelers while allowing 195 yards to Antonio Brown. Fitzgerald is one of the lower priced #1 wide receivers on the slate, and thus far has shown that the connection between him and Carson Palmer is as good as it has ever been, as in two games he is averaging 7 receptions per game, for 99.5 yards. Touchdowns are going to be the key as he had three last week, but did not find the end zone in week one, so this will be critical in order to pay off in a GPP format.
Carson Palmer so far this year has been great. While he was not needed much last week in a lopsided win against the Bears, he still managed to throw 4 touchdowns, and at $6,500 the price just has not caught up with his production.
Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck – ($6,900) and Donte Moncrief ($4,450)
Both of these are great stacks this week, as we all saw how poorly Andrew Luck played on Monday night against the Jets. Luck is going against a Tennessee team that allowed Johnny Manziel was able to throw the ball for 172 yards on just 15 passes. Luck is a much better quarterback than Manziel, and should be able to go out there
Moncrief or Hilton is going to be a week to week GPP question, as both have tremendous upside. We prefer Moncrief mostly due to his price, as he has 19 targets over the first two games, as well as having a touchdown in each of the first two games. Hilton is a guy who is more inconsistent but has more upside than Moncrief due to having more speed. Hilton is still dealing with a knee injury and saw his targets decrease from 14 in week one to just 7 in week two. At his current price we will save the $1,150 and go with Moncrief.
High Risk Stack
St. Louis Rams – QB Nick Foles ($6,500) and TE Jared Cook ($4,250)
This one is the highest risk on the board, but is one that will differentiate yourself from the GPP as not a lot of people will have it. Cook has quickly become Foles’ top target, and we all saw what Gronkowski was able to do week one against the Steelers defense. The Steelers so far this season have allowed the most points to tight ends including a rare Vernon Davis sighting last week as he went 5/62. This is not the Steelers defense of old, and with Cook playing a more critical role in this offense, it is definitely a stack that is intriguing as the Rams will be forced to throw the ball in order to keep up with the Steelers this week.
Nick Foles is one of the highest variance quarterbacks in the NFL. In week one he looked great against the Seahawks, and then took a step back against the Redskins last week as he only had 150 yards passing in a 24-10 loss. This is a combination of variance, as well as possibly the Redskins being against the pass than we otherwise may have thought. They have now held Ryan Tannehill, Nick Foles and Eli Manning all under 300 yards. Foles should have a nice bounce back game this week.
FADES
Based on price and matchups alone you are going to have some players that are highly owned in Week 3.
Quarterback – Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers ($6,250)
A lot of people still don’t know that on FantasyAces are still unfamiliar or disregard that you get 1 point for every 20 yards passing instead of the standard 25. This can make a significant difference and essentially can eliminate the 40-50 yards per game that Cam will have on the ground. Cam is in a great spot this week against the Saints, who have one of the worst defenses in football, but Cam will be over-owned due to his price/matchup, and the issue is that with so many elite quarterbacks on this slate who could throw for 300+ yards and 3 touchdowns, you are essentially relying on Cam to find the end zone at least once maybe twice from a rushing standpoint in order to give you a chance in a GPP.
Running Back – Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks ($5,750)
This one is going out on a limb a little bit, as most people love Marshawn Lynch this week against a Bears defense that simply isn’t good. However, what most people are forgetting is that Seattle has one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, and Marshawn Lynch really struggled against Green Bay last week. He is in a great spot to have a good game, but so far he hasn’t been himself. This could be attributed to a number of things such as the offensive line, the calf injury, variance, or more concerning things whether he is playing for the right reasons after contemplating retirement in the offseason. Realistically we expect Marshawn to bounce back and have a great game against the Bears, but there is enough worry for us to recommend him as a fade in GPP’s as his ownership levels will be one of the highest on the day.
Wide Receiver – Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals ($4,650)
Recency Bias is something you really want to avoid in GPP’s. At his price, Larry Fitzgerald is going to be one of the highest owned wide receivers on FantasyAces this week, and that is something that you want to avoid. The matchup is good against a 49ers team that was torched by Ben Roethlisberger last week. Looking at Larry Fitzgerald’s game log last year, he typically would typically regress back to the mean in the week following a big game. While we expect him to have a decent game, we believe he will be over 35% owned which you never want to play a player who is that highly owned unless he is an absolute lock to go off which a 32 year old Larry Fitzgerald is not a lock.
Tight End – Crockett Gillmore ($4,000)
There will be a number of people who are willing to go down to Crockett Gillmore this week in an attempt to save money, as they saw the 5 receptions for 88 yards and 2 touchdown performance that he put up last week. The problem with Gillmore, is the game before he had 2 receptions for 23 yards, and all of last year only had 10 receptions. Gillmore is a player who is largely going to be touchdown dependent for this season, as although he has the talent and we like him long-term to turn into a productive fantasy player, he is not someone we will be targeting this week, as his ownership is likely going to be too high, as well as there are other better tight ends on the board.
Defense and Special Teams – Seattle Seahawks ($3,200)
We love the Seahawks this week going up against the Bears, and in a vacuum they are our #1 defense. The problem is that they are everyone else’s number one defense for this upcoming week. We have all seen thus far that defenses are not easily predictable and therefore make it difficult to trust on a week to week basis. The Seahawks get back Kam Chancellor who should help out, but they have been far from productive early on in this season allowing 61 points over the first two games which is tied for 28th in the league.
HIGHEST OWNERSHIP
Quarterback
Tom Brady, New England Patriots ($7,500)
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers ($6,250)
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers ($7,350)
Running Back
Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks ($5,750)
LeVeon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers ($6,350)
Dion Lewis, New England Patriots ($4,700)
Wide Receiver
Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals ($4,850)
Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers ($6,300)
Donte Moncrief Indianapolis Colts ($4,450)
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski New England Patriots ($5,900)
Tyler Eifert Cincinnati Bengals ($4,800)
Crockett Gilmore Baltimore Ravens ($4,000)
Defense and Special Teams
Seattle Seahawks ($3,200)
Houston Texans ($2,900)
New England Patriots ($3,100)
LOW OWNERSHIP/CONTRARIAN PLAYS
Quarterback
Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,100)
Nick Foles, St. Louis Rams ($5,900)
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts ($7,400)
Running Back
Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs ($6,200)
Melvin Gordon, San Diego Chargers ($4,450)
Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders ($4,750)
Wide Receiver
Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,800)
Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions ($5,750)
Leonard Hankerson, Atlanta Falcons ($3,950)
Tight End
Jared Cook, St. Louis Rams ($4,250)
Greg Olsen Carolina Panthers ($4,700)
Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings ($4,400
Defense and Special Teams
Cleveland Browns ($2,850)
New York Jets ($2,850)
Denver Broncos ($2,800)
