FantasyAces, Stacks, Fades, and Ownership Percentage

Photo: Ed Mulholland, USA Today Sports

In this feature we are going to look at the GPP contests and offer the top stacks, fades, and ownership projections for each upcoming week. 

Fantasy Aces has shown that they know how to put on live events, and this year they are stepping their game up with a $500,000 FAFC that is at the Palms in Las Vegas. They have two different qualifiers this week one at the $109 price point with a maximum of 250 entries, and the other at the $215 price point with a maximum of 275 entries which pays out two tickets.

If the Live Events aren’t for you, they’re also offering a $50,000 guaranteed tournament at the $22 price point with maximum entrants of 2,500. They also have a $10,000 guaranteed tournament at the $11 price point with a maximum of 1,000 entries.

TOP STACKS

Denver Broncos – QB Peyton Manning ($7,000) and WR Demaryius Thomas ($5,700)

For some reason, Manning and the Broncos offense is getting no love this offseason. Peyton Manning was playing with a torn quad, which is largely being under-discussed and instead the narrative is that he is aging. While he is aging, he also has shown that in good weather he has the ability to just take over a fantasy week. Demaryius is another guy who seems to be flying under the radar for this upcoming season. Most of that hype is going to Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, and Odell Beckham. These two factors combined with an overhyped Baltimore Ravens defense that allowed 248.7 yards per game which was 10^th most in the league last year make the Denver pairing a viable under the radar play that can help you differentiate from the rest of the field. The over under in this game is 48.5, with Denver as a 4.5 point favorite,

New York Giants -- QB Eli Manning ($6,150) and WR Odell Beckham Jr. ($5,800)

In case you missed the last time Odell Beckham Jr. faced the Dallas Cowboys here is his stat line, 10 catches, 146 yards and 2 TD’s including one of the best catches of all time. Dallas had one of the worst pass defenses in the league in 2014, and with the Giants being 7 point underdogs, this bodes well for them being forced to throw the ball at a high volume in order to keep the game close. Eli Manning is at an excellent price point in this game and should be relatively under-owned due to some of the other quarterback options that are out there.

Green Bay Packers -- QB Aaron Rodgers ($7,450) and WR Davante Adams ($4,200)

This combo will be the most popular of the day and for valid reason. With the Jordy Nelson season-ending injury, Davante Adams’ role in the offense skyrocketed. Adams is in a great position to take a giant leap forward this upcoming year and the matchup versus the Bears is one of the best matchups that Aaron Rodgers has each year. With Randall Cobb being injured late in the pre-season, this opened up even more reps between Rodgers and Cobb in practice. While we aren’t going to talk you off of this matchup, there are some significant concerns. First is from an ownership standpoint, Davante Adams will be the highest owned player on the slate, which typically in a GPP format is an automatic fade in football as the variance in the NFL is so high game to game that if Adams does not meet expectations you have an immediate advantage over a large % of the field

VALUE STACKS

Philadelphia Eagles – Sam Bradford ($6,250) and Jordan Matthews ($4,400) 

Spending only $10,650 to get a stack of the team with the 6^th most passing yards last year is typically a great value. When you combine that with the Eagles facing the Falcons who were the worst secondary in the NFL allowing 280 yards passing per game this bodes well for not only a great stack, but also the best value stack of the slate. With Jeremy Maclin moving on to Kansas City, Matthews will see an increased workload compared to his rookie season. $4,400 for the wide receiver is just too cheap in what should be a shootout type game.

San Diego Chargers – Phillip Rivers ($6,200) and Keenan Allen ($4,450) 

This is a play that is going to be contrarian as this stack will be one of the lowest owned stacks for week one as there is a lot of pessimism around Keenan Allen after he took a major step backwards in the 2014 season after an outstanding 2013 season where he caught 1,046 yards and 8 touchdowns. Detroit loses two major pieces on their defensive line with Ndamakong Suh leaving to Miami and Nick Fairley being suspended for the opener. We fully expect that Rivers at home is going to look to re-establish the connection with Keenan Allen and will have the time to do so with the limited pass rush for Detroit.

FADES

Based on price and matchups alone you are going to have some players that are highly owned in Week 1.  

Quarterback – Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts, ($7,200)

This is probably the riskiest recommendation that we are going to make in this article. The Colts are facing one of the toughest matchups in week one and there are better options than to spend the $7,200 to pay up for Andrew Luck. In a game where the Colts are only a 2.5 point favorite and the over under is 45, this has the Colts only scoring three touchdowns. The challenge is that if one of those touchdowns isn’t via the arm of Andrew Luck, your team is in a lot of trouble, as you’ll be sacrificing so much to play a quarterback who is in a relatively difficult spot versus a Bills team that only allowed 205 yards passing last season.

Running Back – Chris Ivory New York Jets, ($3,950) 

Haven’t we been down this road before? Yes, Ivory should see an increased workload now that Chris Johnson has since left the Jets, but we are still looking at a running back that over a sample size of 200 carries had a YPC of 4.1. Let’s compare him to Chris Johnson who since has left the team, he had a YPC of 4.3 YPC last year for the Jets. The point is that Ivory is nothing more than a replacement level running back, who will be over-owned due to his price and the fascination of how hard he runs. Could he have a great game? Absolutely, as the Browns rush defense last year was one of the worst in the league, but there is a better chance of him not performing up to expectation and thus break everyone’s lineup who has him rostered.

Wide Receiver -- Davante Adams ($3,600)

Let us preface this by saying that he is a must start in your cash games on Fantasy Aces. His price is simply too low for the expected production with Jordy Nelson going down with injury. Now, in a GPP, the biggest advantage is that the expected production has variance involved, in order to differentiate from the competition; he is someone that immediately becomes a way to do that since he will be highly owned. A potential player to do this with would be Nelson Agholar who is similar to Adams in the sense that he is replacing a great wide receiver from a year ago. Agholar had himself a great preseason, and is someone who is in a tremendous matchup versus the Atlanta Falcons as we mentioned earlier in our top stacks portion of the article. 

Tight End – Travis Kelce ($4,550) 

Travis Kelce is one of the prototypical boom/bust tight end options, as from a target standpoint, he only averaged 5.4 targets per week in 2014, and with the addition of Jeremy Maclin, this may only decrease. His price is great, and he has the upside that can carry you to a victory, but he is also going to be over-owned in the sense that if he has a bust game you receive a great leg up on the field. Houston has a one of the best defenses in the league, and it shows as this game has an over/under at 41 point, which is one of the lowest on the day.

Defense and Special Teams -- New York Jets ($3,000) 

While the Jets are at home in this game versus one of the worst offenses in the league, the Browns are a run heavy team that was in the bottom half of turnovers last season. Since Josh McCown is not a great quarterback by any standard, the Browns may go even more run-heavy than they typically would do.. If this happens, the upside of the Jets will be limited due to fewer possessions, as well as less opportunities for turnovers. The Jets are also going to be one of the highest owned defenses on the slate due to the Browns quarterback situation which is one of the worst in the leagues.

OWNERSHIP PERCENTAGE

HIGHEST OWNERSHIP

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

Defense and Special Teams

LOW/VALUE OWNERSHIP

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

Defense and Special Teams