A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. This article specifically targets deep sleeper value (players that can be found very late in a fantasy draft). In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look deeper than the top 150 players and identify players that should significantly outperform their late draft position. These players should be your targets after the 12th round of your draft.
Player Receiving 6 Votes
Harry Douglas, Atl
James Brimacombe: It is hard to ignore a 85 catch, 1,067 yard season in the NFL but for a player like Douglas most assume that those numbers were a fluke and only the result of situation as both star WRs in front of him Julio Jones and Roddy White were banged up. The Falcons had to like what they saw in Douglas and now with very little depth after Jones and White, Douglas becomes a very reliable target. He is a great flier to snag in all fantasy formats and gets a boost in PPR leagues.
Jeff Haseley: Harry Douglas saw his role increase last year, mostly due to injuries to Julio Jones and the early season ineffectiveness of Roddy White (also injury related). Douglas did not disappoint with ten games of five receptions or more. He will be the team's third wide receiver in 2014 and should see a lot of targets as he gained the confidence of Matt Ryan last season. He will also help pick up the targets for the departed Tony Gonzalez. Douglas is a forgotten man in fantasy drafts, dropping outside of the Top 150, but I doubt he finishes there in 2014.
Ryan Hester: Considered by many a pedestrian talent who couldn’t be a key cog in a successful offense, Douglas showed last year that he is capable of being an impact player. This season, the two receivers in front of him on the team’s depth chart – Julio Jones and Roddy White – are projected to return from injury. Even without as many looks as he got last year, Douglas should still provide value. With the retirement of Tony Gonzalez and the team’s lack of further attention at the tight end position, they could use many three-receiver sets and eschew the use of a tight end more often than not. If that’s the case, Douglas could surpass 70 receptions and provide surprising fantasy value.
Andy Hicks: Harry Douglas stood up manfully during the meltdown of the Falcons offense last year. Julio Jones and Steven Jackson were injured, Roddy White played injured or underachieved and now Tony Gonzalez has retired. Don’t expect White to pick up where he left in 2012 though, he is now 33 and while the departure of Gonzalez will see targets go elsewhere. Douglas is a good chance to at least return to a 1000 yard season and be much better value than the riskier White who will be drafted much higher.
Steve Holloway: Harry Douglas led the Falcons in receiving in 2013 as Julio Jones missed 11 games and Roddy White missed 3 and played through injury in many others. Both of these players return for the Falcons, but Tony Gonzalez has retired and the team may use three wide receivers more often and reduce the involvement of the tight end. Douglas has played five years with the team and is comfortable with Matt Ryan. He probably will not match last year’s 132 targets, 85 catches, or 1,067 yards, but he finished as WR22 in ppr scoring leagues, giving him plenty of room to out-produce his current ADP.
Jeff Pasquino: Atlanta is very likely to have a base formation of 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers). With the running game firmly in last place in 2013, the Falcons are a pass first team. Now that Tony Gonzalez has retired, the tight end position is being minimized to a blocker to protect Matt Ryan. That means the third target (after Julio Jones and Roddy White) will be Harry Douglas, who should see a ton of opportunity and upside.
Player Receiving 5 Votes
Jerricho Cotchery, Car
Ryan Hester: Cotchery is an aging veteran, typically something to away from in fantasy football, but he’s going to get significant targets by default in Carolina. Rookie Kelvin Benjamin and veteran tight end Greg Olsen should finish the team 1-2 in targets in some order, but Cotchery should be the clear third option and showed last year that he’s wily enough in the red zone to wiggle open and catch touchdowns. When talking about players being selected this late in fantasy drafts, guaranteed volume is at a premium.
Kyle Wachtel: While he has been written off since the selection of Kelvin Benjamin, a limited route tree for the rookie would leave Cotchery as the favorite to lead the wide receivers in receptions.
Matt Waldman: The Panthers are taking a lot of heat for its receiving corps, but Cotchery is a fine veteran capable of fantasy WR3 production. He was the No.31 fantasy receiver last year in Pittsburgh as arguably the No.3 option on the team. This year, he has a good shot of being the No.2 option. A good route runner, Cotchery could earn 60-70 catches and 800-900 yards. If he scores 7-10 touchdowns with those totals, you’re looking at a potential top-25 receiver. Good value.
Mark Wimer: The Panthers have a dire need for veteran leadership as Kelvin Benjamin tries to get up to NFL speed. Jerricho Cotchery had 10 TDs last year (a career-best) and he's what the Panthers have got to throw at - Cotchery could catch enough TDs again this year to make him a viable #3 fantasy wide receiver (or a quality bye-week fill-in).
Jason Wood: Let’s be clear, I don’t think Cotchery is a special player. He wasn’t special in his prime, and he’s not better today. But fantasy value is about ability COMBINED with opportunity. What Cotchery lacks in elite ability he makes up for in opportunity. The Panthers receiving corps is BARREN and Cotchery should see a disproportionate number of targets from Cam Newton.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
Cody Latimer, Den
Sigmund Bloom: Latimer is still recovering from a broken foot, but he should be ready for training camp. Even if he is just a role player at first, his size and athleticism could make him a red zone specialist and worthy of a roster spot in most leagues. With an injury to one of the Broncos top four receiving options, or a rookie breakout, Latimer could be worthy of a lot more in fantasy leagues. He has the kind of instant impact talent we can’t ignore, and no rookie receiver is in a better passing game than Latimer.
Ryan Hester: Denver moved up in the second round to take Latimer, indicating that they have plans for him in the short-term future. At 6’2” and 215 pounds, Latimer certainly cuts the figure of a number two receiver more than free agent acquisition Emmanuel Sanders (5’11” and 180 pounds). Sanders has a few more things working against him as well. First of all, he’s new to the offense and has no pre-existing rapport with Peyton Manning. Secondly, he’s often injured and has had injuries to both feet. Foot injuries are almost nagging and can be recurring. Latimer could pass Sanders on the depth chart at some point this season – perhaps sooner than later.
Andy Hicks: While Cody Latimer isn’t expected to be in the first 4 targets for the Denver Broncos to start the year he could very well get his chances as the year develops. While many will see a bigger role for Latimer in 2015, and that may be true, he doesn’t exactly have to have much go wrong for an opportunity this year. Wes Welker is in the final year of his contract and at age 33 may not be the player he once was. Emmanuel Sanders comes from Pittsburgh and looks to step into Eric Decker’s role, but he is no sure thing either. At a very cheap price you could be getting a Peyton Manning receiver come the fantasy playoffs. A good player to stash deep on your roster.
Alex Miglio: Speaking of late-round dice throws, another rookie you might want to snag instead of the Sammy Watkinses and Mike Evanses of the world is Cody Latimer. The rookie out of Indiana enters a crowded group of skill players vying for targets from quarterback Peyton Manning. Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Emmanuel Sanders and Julius Thomas all figure to be at the top of Manning’s target list. But 6’3”, 216-pound Latimer is liable to take departed Eric Decker’s spot opposite Demaryius Thomas if he proves himself early this offseason.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
Doug Baldwin, Sea
Heath Cummings: Golden Tate is gone and Sidney Rice/Percy Harvin are no guarantee to stay healthy. Baldwin bounced back from a down sophomore campaign to post 778 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns in 2013. As a 4th year receiver there's still hope for improvement and if either Harvin or Rice misses time with another injury Baldwin could become an integral part of the offense.
Bob Henry: Baldwin signed a long-term contract extension this summer and he’s expected to replace Golden Tate in the lineup on the outside after thriving the past few seasons working primarily out of the slot. The Seahawks don’t generate a ton of targets with the fewest pass attempts in the league last year, but that hasn’t stopped Baldwin from being a borderline WR3/WR4 in the past. With more playing time and a healthy Percy Harvin on the field, Baldwin won’t see any double coverage and he’ll continue to benefit from Russell Wilson’s ability to extend plays and hit Baldwin for big plays downfield. He’s well worth his ADP outside the top 150 and a player who could give you quality depth and week-to-week upside during the bye weeks as your WR4/WR5.
Jeff Tefertiller: Doug Baldwin moves into a prominent role in the Seattle pass offense with Golden Tate signing in Detroit. Baldwin will move into Tate's starting spot. Unless Percy Harvin struggles with his health again, Baldwin's upside is limited to a fantasy flex role. However, if Harvin misses time, Baldwin could vault to a fantasy WR2. He is a decent end-of-the-bench stash.
Andrew Hawkins, Cle
Sigmund Bloom: Young Baby Hawk is getting open at will in OTAs, and the Browns seem very excited about their restricted free agent pickup. Somebody has to catch the ball in Cleveland, and while Jordan Cameron is the best candidate to rule the red zone, Hawkins might make his living on short passes from the slot that can equal big PPR numbers. He has the perfect outlook for a late-round PPR flyer as maybe the most reliably open target in a pass offense without a #1 wide receiver unless Josh Gordon avoids a year-long suspension.
Bob Henry: The Browns have a dearth of talent at wide receiver with Josh Gordon’s suspension likely keeping him off the field for most, if not all of the 2014 season. Beyond TE Jordan Cameron, Hawkins could be the Browns No. 2 receiver who will be given every opportunity to start on the outside and slide inside when they go to three receiver formations. He’s a diminutive receiver, but his quickness and route running fervor are reminiscent of a poor man’s Wes Welker. Hawkins could emerge as a solid PPR WR3 or higher if he stays healthy and solidifies himself as a viable outside threat. With veterans Miles Austin and Nate Burleson as his primary competition, I’ll bet heavily on Hawkins to outperform his low ADP.
Jeff Pasquino: Andrew Hawkins switched teams (Cincinnati) but stayed in the AFC North, joining Cleveland. Hawkins inked a 4-year, $13.6M deal in March and he was supposed to be the second receiver behind Josh Gordon, but with Gordon likely suspended for at least half of this upcoming year, Hawkins could be the best target outside of tight end Jordan Cameron.
Lance Moore, Pit
Steve Holloway: Lance Moore spent his first eight years in the NFL with New Orleans and gradually worked his way up from undrafted free agent to Drew Brees’ reliable option on 3rd down and near the goal line. Between 2010 and 2012, Moore averaged 61 receptions, 810 yards and 7 TDs. His production fell off last year as he missed 3 games and was slowed by injury in others. He moved on to Pittsburgh, signing a two-year contract for $3 million. He will compete with Markus Wheaton and rookie Matavius Bryant to be the team’s second wide receiver behind Antonio Brown. Moore has experience on his side and could become Roethlisberger’s third favorite target, behind Brown and Heath Miller.
Jeff Pasquino: I fully expect the Steelers to run a three wide receiver base offense. Offensive coordinator Todd Haley wants Ben Roethlisberger to run a hurry up offense more, and with three viable wide receivers on the outside (Antonio Brown, Markus Wheaton and rookie Martavis Bryant), the one sleeper spot is the slot receiver, who will be Lance Moore. Last year Jerricho Cotchery played that role and scored 10 touchdowns. Moore may be on the back half of his career, but he has a lot of upside in the Pittsburgh offense to rack up 45-50 catches and a half dozen touchdowns, as he has a great nose for space in the Red Zone.
Jason Wood: If you believe in Markus Wheaton, Moore’s role seems pedestrian. But Moore is a crafty veteran who does most things better than JerrichoCotchery (who played the slot role in Pittsburgh last year). Moore can easily deliver 60 catches for 800 yards and 4-6 touchdowns even if Wheaton matures. That’s the very definition of value so late in drafts.
Robert Woods, Buf
Sigmund Bloom: The Bills added Sammy Watkins at a hefty price, but let’s not forget that Woods was the favorite target of his fellow rookie starting quarterback EJ Manuel last year. Woods went for 60 or more receiving yards in four of the eight games he and Manuel played in together, and accounted for three scores over the same span. With growth from both ends of this combination, Woods could creep into the range of fantasy relevance this year.
Steve Holloway: Robert Woods played second fiddle to Steve Johnson as a rookie in 2103, but he caught 40 passes for 587 yards and scored 3 TDs. Johnson left and the team traded considerable resources to move up to draft Sammy Watkins, so Woods is likely to remain the second most targeted wide receiver. He could even share some of his looks with new comer Mike Williams. The good news is that Buffalo is planning to run an up-tempo offense this year and it should be a better fit for EJ Manuel. More production for the Buffalo offense will provide Woods more opportunities to improve on his rookie season when he finished as WR60.
Jason Wood: Woods seems to be the forgotten man because the Bills drafted Sammy Watkins at the top of the first round and also traded for Mike Williams. Watkins is the real deal and will be given every opportunity to be the team’s #1, but don’t overvalue Williams at this point in his career. The trade for Williams was as much about giving the veteran one more chance to resurrect his career as it was about cementing him in the starting lineup. Woods continues to profile as an emerging young receiver who could/should take a natural leap forward in his second season.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Miles Austin, Cle
Ryan Hester: While his health has been a concern for fantasy owners in past years, Austin has performed admirably when he’s been able to stay on the field. And unlike in his “prime” years, drafting Austin won’t cost fantasy owners a very high-cost pick. Cleveland picked up Austin mainly out of desperation due to the suspension of Josh Gordon and lack of a second receiver even before Gordon was suspended. As long as he’s healthy, he will be utilized. In an offense with a quarterback who will likely be able to break contain and throw the ball deep (assuming Johnny Manziel wins the job), Austin should get some high-value targets. Austin is a player that can be picked up late in drafts and used as a WR3/flex with upside. If he subsequently gets hurt, he’s immediately droppable, the same fate suffered by many late-round selections anyway.
Kyle Wachtel: Someone will have to catch passes in Cleveland and Kyle Shanahan has displayed an affinity for his X receivers. Although Austin may not be the ideal fit for that role, he'll have the first opportunity.
Kenny Britt, StL
Andy Hicks: Kenny Britt is the ultimate swing for the fences late pick. Amazingly he will still only be 25 when the season starts and there are lingering memories of his start to the 2011 season when he recorded 14 receptions for 271 yards and 3 touchdowns in his opening 2 games. That was then and this is now though and he by all intents and purposes is on his final chance in St.Louis. If he is good enough he could earn significant playing time and be a fantasy steal. Of course he could play like he did in Tennessee last year and be cut before the start or during the regular season.
Matt Waldman: If your friends were to start a football pool based on football players doing dumb things off the field, Britt would be one of the favorites to earn someone good money. Even so, he’s a talented football player and for the first time in his career, he’s paired with a quarterback capable of being a great vertical passer. I’d hate to take Britt in the opening 10 rounds but considering that I don’t have to, I’m all over it.
Marlon Brown, Bal
Adam Harstad: Brown was arguably better as a rookie undrafted free agent last year than new addition Steve Smith, so I don’t know why everyone is so quick to write him out of the picture in Baltimore. Brown is a big target, as his 7 touchdowns last year (on 49 receptions) will attest, and at just 23, he should still be improving as a player.
Matt Waldman: Steve Smith’s arrival has everyone forgetting about the UDFA receiver who scored seven touchdowns last year and demonstrated reliability and efficiency in the red zone. Brown did this only months removed from an ACL injury. Brown could continue to earn enough red zone looks to remain a factor—especially with Dennis Pitta staying he’s 100 percent, but not quite 100 percent. If he regains some of his old speed now that he’s more than a year removed from the knee injury, watch out.
Steve Johnson, SF
Andy Hicks: Steve Johnson was traded by the Buffalo Bills to give the 49ers another experienced receiving option. With AnquanBoldin close to retirement and Michael Crabtree wanting a new contract, there is an opportunity for Johnson to get significant playing time. Although the 49ers are likely to run, run and then run some more, Johnson is much better value than Boldin or Crabtree and while he needs a little bit of luck to get a fantasy effective role he should make the most of whatever comes his way.
Mark Wimer: Johnson (28 when the season starts) will get a crack at starting opposite Michael Crabtree in San Francisco, for one of the up-and-coming elite quarterbacks in the NFL (Colin Kaepernick). If Anquan Boldin hits the over-30 wall this year, Johnson could surprise us with a big bounce-back campaign in San Francisco. He's worth a late-round pick.
Marqise Lee, Jax
James Brimacombe: Although Lee slipped out of the first round in the draft, he still landed in a great spot going forward. The Jaguars were lacking talent on offense and what they get with Lee is a ton of potential right out of the gate. At USC, Lee had incredible production over his first two seasons catching 191 passes for 2,864 yards and 25 touchdowns in 25 games. Lee looks to be a starter to open the season and by the time preseason starts he could be a very hot sleeper pick.
Bob Henry: The Jags drafted Lee with the intentions of having him play in the same “Z” spot where Justin Blackmon thrived. It’s a spot that generated a volume of targets and routes that are well suited to Lee’s skill and talents – providing he can stay healthy. In 2012, Lee was among the most prolific receivers in the country at USC, but he didn’t look the same last season due to injuries. He’s already working through an ankle injury in OTAs. If Lee can regain his pre-injury form and win the starting spot in the lineup, he should have plenty of opportunity and quickly develop into a WR3 type – an above average possession receiver with PPR appeal who can do plenty of damage after the catch.
Jordan Matthews, Phi
Heath Cummings: It's been reported that Matthews has looked like the best receiver at Eagles mini-camp. As a rookie, Matthews found a great situation in a high tempo offense with no established #1 receiver. It also helps him greatly that Chip Kelly seems to be able to find a place for everyone. WR3 is probably his ceiling in year one, but that's plenty for a player that isn't being taken in the top 150 picks.
Bob Henry: Matthews has been the talk of OTAs. Dubbed by beat writers as the Eagles best receiver already, Matthews is catching everything thrown his way, working as hard as any player on the team and impressing his fellow players and coaches alike. Matthews appears to be the favorite to open the season as the Eagles third receiver. Jeremy Maclin has struggled to stay healthy and it remains to be seen if Riley Cooper can sustain the success he found last year. Matthews arguably does have the most talent, if not the most long-term upside of the Eagles receivers. He’s well known for this work ethic so it would come as no surprise if he ends up breaking through as a fantasy receiver earlier than some might have originally expected.
Rod Streater, Oak
Jeff Haseley: The Raiders signed James Jones in the offseason, however it was Streater who led the team with 60 receptions and 888 yards receiving. Jones was a WR2 with the Packers, if not a WR3, but more importantly, he has never occupied the lead receiver role. Streater could be the one who rises to the occasion as the Raiders go-to target for either Matt Schaub or rookie quarterback Derek Carr. Streater is also entering his third year in the league, where receivers tend to break out.
Mark Wimer: Rod Streater posted a surprising 60/888/4 receiving last year despite erratic quarterbacking by the Oakland platoon - Terrelle Pryor and Mike McGloin, mainly. With Matt Schaub in town to stabilize the quarterback position, the Raiders' attack could be on the rise. If Streater wins the starting job across from James Jones, he could be headed for a 1,000+ yards-receiving campaign. He's worth a late-round pick this year.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Justin Blackmon, Jac
Sigmund Bloom: At this moment, Blackmon seems unlikely to provide anything for the Jaguars or fantasy teams in 2014, but at any time, news could break about his possible reinstatement and restore some value. Remember that Blackmon produced like a fantasy #1 receiver in his brief appearance during 2013. If you draft him with your last pick, you can feel free to cut him for the waiver flavor of the week at any time. Until then, you have a lottery ticket that could pay off in a league that has reinstated the likes of Michael Vick and Gregg Williams.
Juron Criner, Oak
Matt Waldman: The third-year Raider receiver is a big receiver with excellent hands and skill to win the ball in the air versus tight coverage. A shoulder injury derailed his opportunity to earn playing time last year. This year, he’s performing well in OTAs—much like his rookie year. If he can put it together and earn time in the starting rotation, he has the skill to win the job during the season and become a productive fantasy option.
Malcom Floyd, SD
Jeff Pasquino: San Diego’s second wide receiver spot is open to competition, or so it seems. Malcom Floyd had the spot all locked up last year until a brutal injury in September sidelined him for the year. Phillip Rivers had a fantastic season in 2013 and is primed for another big year this season. Floyd should see a good amount of targets as teams focus on stopping Keenan Allen, giving Floyd opportunity to perform as a sleeper wideout.
Jacoby Ford, NYJ
Jason Wood: Eric Decker was a big signing, but the Jets still need others to emerge from a moribund receiving corps. Ford is a long shot to contribute, but he was clearly the best receiver (in terms of hands, routes, timing) in Oakland; it was his injuries that kept him from realizing his promise. Since Ford passed his physical to join New York, there’s some reason to think he’s finally healthy. A healthy Ford could easily see major snaps.
Chris Givens, StL
Steve Holloway: Chris Givens played well in his rookie season (2012) catching 42 passes for 698 yards and 3 TDs. His average per reception was an outstanding 16.6 yards, a testament to his talent for getting open deep. His second year was not as good, with 34 receptions for 569 yards and no TDs. The return of Sam Bradford combined with the expected much improved offensive line play are reasons that Givens could finally flourish in his third season in the league.
Charles Johnson, Cle
Chad Parsons: The Browns passing game (outside of Jordan Cameron) is completely up in the air. Charles Johnson has the physical attributes to vault from a no-name fantasy entity to a weekly starter with opportunity.
Jarvis Landry, Mia
Jeff Haseley:The Dolphins offense is expected to receive a boost this year under offensive coordinator Bill Lazor and rookie draft pick Jarvis Landry could wind up having an increased role in the passing game. Landry has the skills and mental toughness to make a splash in his rookie season that could essentially cut into the snaps of veteran Brian Hartline. Landry is a rookie receiver that I have my eye on that could wind up turning into a fantasy flex option.
Mike Williams
Cian Fahey: The Buffalo Bills got a bargain with wide receiver Mike Williams during the offseason. Williams may not be a superstar player, but he has the talent of a high-quality starter and has proven that he can produce with poor quarterback play in the past. Williams' athleticism and willingness to attack the ball at its highest point makes him a touchdown threat even if EJ Manuel doesn't improve over his rookie season.