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A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. This article specifically targets deep sleeper value (players that can be found very late in a fantasy draft). In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look deeper than the top 150 players and identify players that should significantly outperform their late draft position. These players should be your targets after the 12th round of your draft.
Player Receiving 7 Votes
Dwayne Allen, Ind
Sigmund Bloom: Allen’s 2013 was very short, but it did consist of a beastly 20-yard touchdown catch before he succumbed to a hip injury. Meanwhile, one of his main rivals for targets long term, Coby Fleener, struggled to make an impact. Allen will be on the field in both the run and passing game, and he has the size and skills to emerge as a favorite red zone target of Andrew Luck’s. With a little more volume, he can join the mid TE1 pack in 2014.
James Brimacombe: Allen was poised to have a breakout season last year and ended up getting injured after catching one catch that happened to be a 20 yard touchdown. He offers a lot more upside at the position then what Coby Fleener does and he could be a favorite target for Andrew Luck right from the start. The key now for Allen is obviously staying healthy, and as long as he is on the field the production will come.
Ryan Hester: Forgotten by many due to a relatively quiet rookie season and a season-ending injury that occurred in Week 1 last season, Allen is a player whose athleticism at tight end rivals many of the elite athletes at the position in today’s NFL. Allen was a third-round selection by the team in 2012, further displaying his pedigree. In his only game last year, he caught an uber-athletic 20-yard touchdown pass from Andrew Luck before being injured. There are a lot of pass-catching options in the fold for Indianapolis this season, but Allen could rise to the top – making a selection this late in your draft incredible value.
Steve Holloway: Dwayne Allen was drafted by the Colts in 2012 in the 3rd round, a full round after Coby Fleener. However, Allen clearly outplayed Fleener, making 45 catches for 521 yards (11.6 ypc) and 3 TDs. Allen missed the entire season last year as he was injured in the Colts’ first game after he caught a 20-yard TD pass. He returns healthy in 2014. The Colts receivers are much improved which should allow more openings for the dual tight end to operate. Allen is an effective in-line player, who is still able to create space and get open. His targets may not be much greater than his rookie season, but he will likely be able to do more with them.
Alex Miglio: The Colts have added plenty on offense via free agency and the NFL draft this offseason, and they will be adding one more by virtue of health. Dwayne Allen was taken after Coby Fleener in the 2012 draft, but the former outplayed the latter as a rookie. Allen headed into 2013 with a strengthening hold on the starting job thanks to solid blocking and sure-handed play. A hip injury ended his season before it began, pushing Fleener into a bigger role. Fleener didn’t capitalize, managing just 52 receptions for 608 yards and four touchdowns. To put that into perspective, that was barely better than Allen’s rookie season. Allen figures to push to start again, and he could be a big red zone target for quarterback Andrew Luck.
Jeff Tefertiller: Dwayne Allen should be recovered from the hip injury by training camp. He is a good pass-catching tight end. Coby Fleener will stay in to block while Allen runs pass patterns, if history is an indicator for the 2014 season. After the injury, Allen has been long forgotten in fantasy circles.
Kyle Wachtel: As a rookie, he posted a 45-521-3 line. An injury cost him nearly the entire 2013 season, but he will be returning to an improved Andrew Luck with the potential to benefit from new coach, Rob Chudzinski, who oversaw Jordan Cameron's breakout last season.
Player Receiving 6 Votes
Heath Miller, Pit
James Brimacombe: It took time for Miller to adjust last year after coming back from injury. Even with his final numbers of 58/593/1, over 14 games there was a lot missing from the chemistry that he and QB Ben Roethlisberger experienced in the prior season. Miller has the potential to have a 70 catch type of season once again and with that the touchdowns will get back up to around 8 where he ended up in 2012. Pittsburgh has a lot of young WRs behind Antonio Brown and Miller might be the one that benefits the most as he will be a trusted option for Roethlisberger throughout games.
Bob Henry: Miller was never quite 100% last year after coming back in short order from a knee injury suffered near the end of previous season. Now healthy, Miller should regain his form and take back more of his red zone role that was filled well by Jerricho Cotchery last year. Miller provides solid middle-range TE2 consistency, but he also has low TE1 upside any given week. At his current ADP you won’t find a player with a better floor to draft as your TE2 and use during bye weeks, but Miller also adds some upside even at his age as Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite check down receiver.
Steve Holloway: Heath Miller is an effective tight end that has a good connection with his quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger. His offensive production is often tied to the success of the Steeler’s offensive line and that unit is supposed to be much improved from last year. When Miller is more highly targeted, he produces. In 2009 and 2012, he had a combined 198 targets and made 147 catches for 1,605 yards and scored 14 TDs. Look for the improved OL play to allow Miller’s production to improve in 2014.
Chad Parsons: The Steelers still lack a meaningful red zone target in the passing game and Heath Miller is coming off an uncharacteristically low one touchdown in 2013. Miller has as much chance to finish in the top-6 as most of the tight ends drafted in the 6-12 range in drafts for a significant discount.
Matt Waldman: The Steeler tore an ACL late in 2012—the best statistical season of his career—and still returned in 2013 to play 14 games and post his fourth-best totals during his nine-year run in the NFL. Is Miller really slowing down or did he play through his injury recovery phase? I’m more inclined to say it’s the latter. Miller only scored one touchdown last year, but if the Steelers make a commitment to feed him the ball in the red zone, he’s good for 5-7 scores and that puts him in TE1 territory based on last year’s yardage totals. As late as you can get Miller, I’ll take that swing for the fences if I didn’t pick a stud early or I need to take a shot on the waiver wire.
Jason Wood: Miller signed a cap friendly extension in March that will keep him in Pittsburgh for at least the next two seasons. Miller isn’t a world beater at the position, but he does provide Ben Roethlisberger with a safety valve in short- and intermediate zones; particularly in key 3rd down and red zone situations.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
Travis Kelce, KC
Sigmund Bloom: Kelce still isn’t back on the field after microfracture surgery, but he is expected to be ready for 2014. As long as he is, Kelce should have every opportunity to climb the ladder to as high as #3 in the pecking order in targets. Andy Reid made a fantasy stud out of fellow Cincinnati and much less talented TE Brent Celek in the past, and Kelce could be a high percentage target in the middle of the field this year.
Bob Henry: Kelce’s rookie season was cut short due to injury and that is the primary concern with Kelce. Can he stay healthy? Make no mistake about it, though, he has enough talent, size and skill to win the starting tight end job in an Andy Reid offense and that alone gives him top 10 potential. If you miss on the top tight ends, you might want to skip those in the mid-to-low TE1 range and opt for a pair of upside TE2s like Kelce, Zach Ertz and Heath Miller. One of them is likely to have top 10 value and all of them are strong backup options with bye week starter appeal. Kelce has great size, good receiving skills and the Chiefs don’t have any strong receiving options outside of Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles. Kelce could emerge as a 50-catch tight end with good red zone potential. He’s well worth his low ADP given that he already has a strong chance of opening week one as the starter.
Jeff Pasquino: The Chiefs lack for much in the way of viable receiving options, which makes the tight end a big part of the offense almost by default. Head coach Andy Reid has been talking up Travis Kelce all offseason, and the second year tight end is poised to come off of an injury-plagued rookie season that stole all of his ability to contribute last year. Starting quarterback Alex Smith loves to throw to short or intermediate targets, and Kelce fits the bill as a big (6’5”, 255) option across the middle. Kelce may surprise some as a TE2 with TE1 upside.
Matt Waldman: If Kelce gets healthy by training camp he could become the leading receiver on this team. Sounds crazy, but Dwayne Bowe is inconsistent and the most talented athlete at the receiver position after Bowe might be UDFA rookie Albert Wilson. Kelce is a fine all-around player with soft hands and the athleticism to turn short receptions into big plays.
Player Receiving 3 Votes
Tyler Eifert, Cin
Bob Henry: Eifert has the talent and size to evolve into a bigger piece of the Bengals offense, particularly in the red zone. Jermaine Gresham is coming off a hernia surgery, but Eifert has been slowed by a shoulder injury himself. It’s very possible that Gresham and Eifert will continue to cancel each other out keeping both of them outside of the top 15 fantasy TEs, but if one of them is going to take a leap forward into that top 15 I would bet on that one being Eifert.
Andy Hicks: Rookie tight ends aren’t expected to deliver much to their fantasy teams and Tyler Eifert was no exception. He was however just as productive as fellow Bengal Jermaine Gresham. This year with even just a modicum of improvement Eifert will make a push for fantasy consideration. The Bengals lack true red zone threats outside A.J Green and Eifert is expected to have a significant edge over the frequently disappointing Gresham in this area. The 2nd year is often crucial to the best fantasy tight ends and look for Eifert to present himself in this area.
Steve Holloway: Tyler Eifert was drafted by the Bengals with the 21st overall pick in 2012 and split time at tight end with Jermaine Gresham. He managed to catch 39 passes on only 60 targets for 445 yards and 2 TDs. Eifert suffered a shoulder injury late in the season, but should be ready for training camp. If he is healthy in time for camp, he should supplant Gresham as the primary tight end receiver and improve on his rookie season production.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Coby Fleener, Ind
Andy Hicks: Coby Fleener had a nice 2nd season finishing with 52 receptions. The big question mark surrounding Fleener this year is the return from injury of fellow 3rd year tight end, Dwayne Allen. Allen was better than Fleener in their rookie seasons and is also a better blocker. Fleener however excels in space and after the catch. I expect Fleener to be the more productive player, but Allen will have moments as well. There is enough room in the Colts offense for both.
Jason Wood: I suspect Andrew Luck will not only continue to improve his efficiency, but the Colts will throw more as Luck takes more command of the offense. Fleener finished as TE15 last year (52 receptions for 608 yards and 4 touchdowns) and is capable of more.
Garrett Graham, Hou
Jeff Haseley: Head Coach Gary Kubiak is out of Houston and former Patriots Offensive Coordinator Bill O'Brien takes his place. Like Kubiak, O'Brien likes to involve the tight end in his offense and this year the Texans' primary receiving tight end will be Garrett Graham, thanks to the departure of Owen Daniels to Baltimore. The level of Graham's fantasy success hinges on the play from the quarterback position, currently occupied by Ryan Fitzpatrick. If Fitzpatrick shows he can be a decent threat, Graham's value could jump into the Top 12.
Mark Wimer: Graham had 89 targets for 49/545/5 receiving last year while competing for touches with Owen Daniels for part of the season - now Daniels is in Baltimore, and Graham is on top of the depth chart. The Bill O'Brien offense figures to use the tight end extensively, so if Graham can entrench himself as the top pass-catching threat at tight end during training camp, he could significantly outplay the late-round pick you'll need to draft him.
Mychal Rivera, Oak
Heath Cummings: Rivera quietly had a very solid second half to 2013. As a rookie he won the starting TE job in Oakland and performed much better once a conventional quarterback (Matt McGloin) took over. With Matt Schaub under center Rivera should continue to have success and maybe push into the bottom tier of TE1s. He is a quality red zone target and we've all seen how much Schaub loves his tight ends in the red zone.
Ryan Hester: Oakland has little else at the tight end position besides the athletic 2013 sixth-round pick out of Tennessee. Last season, Rivera took an opportunity and converted it into 400 yards receiving and four touchdowns in a modest offense. This year, Oakland has upgraded at quarterback from Matt McGloin to Matt Schaub. Schaub showed an acumen for passing to tight ends in his Houston days, so Rivera could provide some sneaky late-round value with his athleticism and upgrade at quarterback.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Brandon Bostick, GB
Adam Harstad: Green Bay is a passing juggernaut, and Aaron Rodgers loves spreading the ball around. Bostick is probably the best receiving TE in town this year, and is practically available for free in most fantasy leagues. There are few situations more worth gambling on late in the draft.
Marcedes Lewis, Jac
Jeff Pasquino: Marcedes Lewis had four touchdowns in the final five weeks of the 2013 season, catching 16 passes for 242 yards over those five contests. That translates to roughly a 51 catch, 774 yards receiving season (projecting 13 touchdowns is clearly unrealistic). Jacksonville does not have much in the way of experience at wide receiver (Cecil Shorts barely counts) and we already know that Chad Henne loves Lewis as a target. Even if Jacksonville puts Blake Bortles in at quarterback sometime this year, a big tight end over the middle is a favored target for a rookie quarterback. Lewis has big upside as a sleeper tight end this season.
Adrien Robinson, NYG
Kyle Wachtel: Sitting atop the Giants' depth chart with little competition should lead to plenty of opportunity for Robinson. Clocked at under 4.60 in the 40-yard dash, his athleticism has a chance to shine with new OC Ben McAdoo, who was the tight ends coach for Jermichael Finley in Green Bay.
Levine Toilolo, Atl
Mark Wimer: The Falcons didn't draft a new face at tight end, and they didn't go after a high-profile free agent here either. They must think that Levine Toilolo can be productive as Tony Gonzalez's replacement, and I agree with them. I'm rostering him as my tight end #2 (with considerable upside potential) this year.